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Michigan 8th's Elissa Slotkin to fellow Democrats: "Don't Believe the [Polls] Hype"

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by jhenderson251, Jul 16, 2020.

  1. jhenderson251

    jhenderson251 Premium Member

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    I found this to be a great article on a fascinating new member of Congress. It'll be interesting to see if Slotkin can keep her new seat in a reddish-purple district that went 7 points to Trump in 2016 that hadn't voted in a Democrat in 20+ years before her.

    Her opinions on current polling info:

     
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  2. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    This is what I said in the other thread yesterday on polling.
    But the counter argument is that if it is truly 7 or 8 points on election day it won’t matter. Not enough hidden trump,voters out there to make up for the deficit.
     
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  3. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    But that was pretty much the exact spread they were feeding us on election day 2016...what happened there?
     
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  4. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    It wasn’t 8 points, but we’re not going to be 8 points apart by November anyway.
     
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  5. RIP

    RIP VIP Member

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    I absolutely to refuse he will be voted out of office until it happens.
     
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  6. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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  7. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    No way there will be as many undercounted Trump votes this time around. '16 drew a lot of disgruntled apoliticals out of the woodwork, many of them didn't like what the bought, but he'll need them all if he wants a chance.

    Additionally, he'll also need the many independent / moderate voters that took a chance in '16 to think he deserves 4 more years. That number will be faaar from 100%.
     
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  8. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist Premium Member

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    Whatever it is the pollsters missed in 2016, they did it because they couldn’t see it.

    It will be the same next time. It’s possible we will have the exact same issue, which might be hidden Trump voters, but there’s no reason it won’t be something entirely new. Maybe there will be hidden Biden voters. Or some random variation in some key district.

    No one should feel that this thing is locked up, but we shouldn’t just believe that we can apply some 2016 correction either.
     
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  9. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    The polls won't change my outlook. I'm going to act like we're down 10%. I'm going to vote, and I'm going to get every person I know who opposes Trump to vote.

    However, it is worth noting that even if they are underestimated Trump's support again, their miss in 2016 was relatively small. It was large enough to swing a close election, but it wasn't anywhere near large enough to swing the margins Biden currently has now. Of course, we'll have to see if those margins hold. The race often tightens as we get closer to the election.
     
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  10. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    And a lot of Democrats also decided to stay home in 2016, not going to happen in 2020, especially if the 2018 midterms are any indicator.
    The Non-Voters Who Decided The Election: Trump Won Because Of Lower Democratic Turnout
    Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton The Election
    2018 voter turnout rose dramatically for groups favoring Democrats, census confirms
     
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  11. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    This time I predict many extra Trump hater votes coming out.
    ...as much as I despise the libbies, I see a landslide victory for the bad guys. The media was not behind Hillary like they are for dirty Joe.
     
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  12. WC53

    WC53 GC Legend

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    Pols are a snapshot, much can change. Fear / emotion motivates voters not logic
     
  13. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    One thing that doesn't get talked about much is that Clinton also hit above her polling averages nationally and in many states. When you look at 2016 polls, Clinton would have decent margins but also only pull numbers in the mid to low 40s. There is less of the vote share unaccounted for in the 2020 polls, and it's why it is so significant that Biden is consistently near 50% or better.
     
  14. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Although it probably won't make any difference in the end, Fox News and OAN, Trump's versions of Pravda and Izvestia are all in with Deranged Donald.
     
  15. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    I think the "hidden" Trump voters were the undecideds, of which there was a large contingent back in 2016. For Trump to win in 2016, a few things had to happen. This included almost all undecideds breaking for Trump, and a lower than 2012 turnout for the D. Both happened.

    I don't think we'll see a repeat in 2020. At least I hope not. But I don't see as many undecideds as last time, and Trump has worse negativity rating than Biden. The people who held their nose and voted Trump last time, are in my opinion, more likely to hold their nose and vote Biden this cycle.

    The turnout will also be a deciding factor. Had the same amount of African Americans voted in 2016 that voted in 2012, Clinton likely is the winner. 2018 saw a huge voter turnout for the Ds, and Trump has only fanned the flames that will cause more D's to turnout in 2020.

    Unless something drastic happens between now and November, which is always possible, I just don't think there are enough people who haven't made up their respective minds already to sway the election.
     
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  16. HallGator

    HallGator Senile Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I can give you one name that was a big help to DT winning last time around:

    Hillary Clinton

    I don't think that Biden will have the same effect on a lot of the voters this time around but there are no guarantees he can beat Trump.
     
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  17. BobK89

    BobK89 GC Hall of Fame

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    Dems should have known that Sec. Clinton was in trouble when the media kept reporting that she was re-introducing herself to voters. Voters had made up their minds about her over the prior 25 years. They didn’t NEED to be reintroduced to her.
     
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