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Let’s say Hillary becomes the Democrat nominee

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by The_RH_Factor, Dec 5, 2019.

  1. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Nope most will vote Trump now that they know he isn't a Manchurian candidate imo. The % for the Libertarian vote will go back way closer to 2012 like numbers. I will have to look at the numbers again but Trump may gain a few states he didn't have in 2016 and it may help keeping states like MI and WI.
     
  2. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    The only way Hillary Clinton will end up with the Democratic nomination is if there is brokered convention and the delegates turn to her as a last ditch choice and even in that event, Michael Bloomberg or Deval Patrick would be a much more likely choice than Hillary Clinton. Interestingly there was only one presidential candidate in American history who won the popular vote, lost in the Electoral College and ran four years later. That candidate was Grover Cleveland, who lost in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison and ran again and won in 1892. He was also the only US president in history to serve split terms, the first being from 1885-1888. If Clinton somehow does end up with the nomination in 2020 I wouldn't count her out. There's a very good chance that she would be able to accomplish what she failed to do in 2016, flip educated suburban women from the Republican Party to the Democrats. It was the reason Democrats flipped the House in 2018 and flipped the Kentucky governorship in 2019.
     
  3. intimigator1

    intimigator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Why is she even being brought up...not even a hypothetical question of her running gives anybody a good thought. Even worse is the fact that bozo number 2 (she was 1) is President and I will vote for a dog named Rover just to get Trump out of office but I could never vote for Hillary. Never. Can we please destroy the topic? :)
     
  4. g8rjd

    g8rjd GC Hall of Fame

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    Because some people on this board are even more obsessed with Hillary than Trump is.
     
  5. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Do you have any evidence to back this? The Johnson voters around here are almost universally anti-Trump.
     
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  6. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Let's say someone is dumb enough to take the F$U coaching job...?
     
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  7. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Guess not.
     
  8. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    They aren't that representative of the average new 2016 Gary Johnson voter that thought Trump wouldn't put conservative Judges in etc.

    It looks like if they go back to 2012 like numbers for the 3rd party people Trump would have won Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire (Nevada would be real close) at least in addition to some midwest states not being as close.
     
  9. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Again, what is the basis of that description as the "average new 2016 Gary Johnson voter?" What is the factual basis of your claims here?
     
  10. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    It was usual Republican leaners that thought Trump was lying about what he said he was going to do with Judges etc. There were tons of posts from these people back then saying they would vote for Johnson because they thought Trump was faking it.

    Stein got more than usual but not nearly as how much the extra Johnson votes took from Trump from that affect.
     
  11. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    I'll believe that it was more Republican leaners (that appears to be accurate based on the data), but what is the factual basis for the second part of your sentence, that they did so because of "Judges etc." rather than simply being educated Republicans that didn't like the whole p-grabbing, name-calling, immigrant bashing stuff?

    I honestly don't remember any of those posts. Most of the Johnson voters still post here, so we can ask them: did you vote Johnson because you thought he would appoint liberals as judges or for some other reason?

    0.4% is the number that I saw in differential for Johnson. That is pretty similar to what Stein got extra, but feel free to provide any factual basis for your claims.
     
  12. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    There isn't one. Two types of people voted for Johnson in 2016.

    1) Actual Libertarians
    2) People who refused to vote for Trump or Hillary

    To think Trump has won the 2nd group over is wishful thinking. The GOP has lost 5% of its membership in the last 3 years. The only way some of those voters (group 2) go for Trump is if the Dems nominate Warren/Sanders (just my opinion)

    And I'm actually a little active in Libertarian political groups, so some of my thoughts are rooted in that.
     
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  13. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    If you want to view 2016 Johnson/Stein voters as independents.

    "And independents right now are more likely to align with Democrats. Asked by Gallup if they “lean” Republican or Democratic, 52 percent of independents said they lean to the Dems and 36 percent said they lean toward the GOP. Four years ago, 44 percent of independents leaned Republican, 43 percent Democratic."
     
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  14. OaktownGator

    OaktownGator Guardian of the GC Galaxy Moderator VIP Member

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    I was a Gary Johnson voter (grudgingly due to his apparent weed induced mental facilities, but his platform was a better fit than either major candidate.

    The chances I will vote for a criminal traitor like Trump are zero. Not to mention his numerous other character flaws and inability to competently perform the job.
     
  15. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Johnson got over 3 million more votes I think than that party got in 2012. I think it went from like 1.3 million to 4.5 million votes.

    Egghead took quite a bit in a few states also that wont happen to Trump in 2020.
     
  16. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    But again, that isn't evidence that those folks weren't pretty Anti-Trump for reasons other than insufficient judges or such and don't remain so for those same reasons.
     
  17. intimigator1

    intimigator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    who? Not Democrats? I do see her name brought up consistently by Republican groupies though.
     
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  18. g8rjd

    g8rjd GC Hall of Fame

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    Winner, winner, chicken dinner!
     
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  19. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Thought I would add that the probability of Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee is only slightly greater than the probability of Mark Sanford, William Weld or Mike Pence being the Republican nominee.
     
  20. g8rjd

    g8rjd GC Hall of Fame

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    Or Mark Foley.