Israel strikes Iran (Update: US Bombs Iran at #848)

Uh … yes.

 

I’m not so sure. Netanyahu was not loved by all Israelis. He was gifted a prolonged career by October 7. His grasp on Israeli power is tenuous, to say the least. If he screwed the pooch here, he might be done.

He cannot afford to lose the US support, and once he pleaded with Trump to intervene, and Trump intervened, he used up that goodwill.

That said, like many of us, I am holding off judgment till we get more true facts.

 

Bibi’s hold on power is actually stronger after he survived the no confidence vote. Yes, he is detested by a lot of Israelis and people who have worked for him but the fact he is still is the PM says a lot.

Bibi’s one obsession is Iran getting a nuclear weapon. He did listen to the Obama Admin when they told him to stand down. He also knows Trump is a lame duck. I would watch for Isreali covert action against Iran to see how things went.

 

No idea, but I would suggest Iran had to at least anticipated this type of attack. It is not too difficult to remove uranium from one underground facility to another. You are not going to remove centrifuges so easily, but one could easily postulate that they did not have all of their capacity in one location. It is possilbe DIA knows that Iran moved this stuff before the strike and regardless of how much physical damage was done by the bombs, it was never going to be the knock out blow that some wanted it to be.

 

Agree on moving the ERU stores but I trust the Mossad knows where most or all of it went or can track it down. The actual facilities damage I do not think the Iranians even know at this point. And seeing that the Israelis stole the entire history of the Iranian Nuclear Program and have penetrated the program so deeply, they likely know where it is or went.

 

I promise you that they had guys standing by to start the BDA as soon as the strike was over. However, as @vaxcardinal said, it still takes time, especially when you do not have 24/7 overhead ISR coverage. I had to deal with that last summer when I had a three star asking me what I thought about some BDA and I had to tell him that I am not an Imagery Analyst and we did not have any other Intel reflections, which did not go over well. I think we just need to wait and see what everyone knows after a couple weeks.

 

I would like more info on this. Iran knew what type of ordinance and how they would be delivered - we all did. Could they have moved weapons grade uranium to a different location?

 

Maybe we should ask the Israelis who leaked the BDA report so that fully deserved harsh punishment can be implemented upon the treasonist(s). I am more disappointed in US personnel leaking what is likely top secret material than I am if the MOPs didn’t cause enough damage to shut down the Iranian UG facilities. If Iran managed to scurry away with some 60% refined nuke material, good for them, but I have a hard time believing that we and the Israelis wouldn’t know about such movement.