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Iran Ups the Ante _ Drone Attacks on KSA Refineries

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Sep 14, 2019.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Note that those prices are breakeven prices. Nobody drills to break even.

    And ME oil is not cheaper. WTI historically lags their benchmarks by anywhere from $5 - $10 per barrel on average

    It took 6 - 8 years of drilling in the most productive acreage available to add 5 million barrels per day to the US output. A large part of that spike came when oil was north of $80 per barrel. That additional output has overwhelmed the takeaway capacity (pipeline, rail, trucks). The US can in no way shape or form replace the 11M + barrels per day that Saudi Arabia produces not to mention the rest of the oil supplies that would be impacted by an all out Sunni Shia war that would rag all the other producers in. Add in the fact that the oil produced in America cannot be refined by the refineries currently taking ME crude without major overhauls/retooling and it is obvious that the US cannot make up that deficit nor is the world equipped to handle that sort of deficit. If you cut Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar exports to 50% of current levels the world would economies dive into a deep economic depression.

    I am sure that Russia would try and ramp up but that would take along time too. There is simply no way possible to avoid a major worldwide depression if you took 20M barrels of oil per day off the world market in a short period of time.

    U.S. Crude Oil Production - Historical Chart
     
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  2. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    Looking at the photos in the link, my question is this.
    1) how were they able to gather so much evidence in such a short time?
    2) We are talking point of impact explosions and intense heat from the fires, how is it that so much of the drones and missiles are recoverable? And in relatively good shape?

    Trump orders more Iran sanctions as Saudi displays attack evidence - Reuters
     
  3. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Again, it can't be done at current prices, but increase the price enough and you'll see supply meet demand. There's just too much out there to leave it in the ground at $150/bbl. And that's before accounting for alternative fuel sources -- both renewable and non-renewable -- that can be brought online in short order to reduce global oil demand. The idea that the world can't survive without middle eastern oil might have been true 15 years ago, but not any longer. Even if it all went kaput over night (which is exceedingly unlikely) it will at most sting the rest of the world, and would probably make us better off since the profitability of our oil and gas industry would explode.

    If Saudi Arabia and Iran want to go to war and ruin themselves over their holy war, they can have at it. If the rest of the world is concerned about expensive oil, they can step up to the plate and try to play referee in a fight between lunatics. I want no part of it.
     
  4. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Iran is not a global power. If they attack us, we can end their regime in a matter of weeks. There's no comparison to WW2.

    As for 9/11, that was perpetrated by the Saudis -- the people you now want to support. And the last time we heard that scare-mongering line about WMDs ("we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud"), we bought ourselves the worst quagmire since Vietnam. Oh and guess what? In our attempt to make ourselves safer from "the enemy," we toppled the best regional check on the new scary enemy of the week, Iran.

    The country is done playing whack-a-mole chasing Middle East phantoms. If you want to start another war in the middle east, look elsewhere.
     
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  5. intimigator1

    intimigator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I will say this. There is a naive approach to our government tha
    Check your eyes then. My point is that since nobody is qualified enough to fly a drone with that precision that it has to be someone USA trained. Right? Our drone pilots are the best trained or are there better?
    Get your eyes checked asap.
     
  6. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    According to the link, the attack supposedly came from the North, meaning that it could have originated in Iran or it may have originated in Iraq where the missiles/drones would have been launched by an Iranian backed Shiite militia, the latter alternative would have been impossible were it not for G.W. Bush's invasion of Iraq.
     
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  7. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    What do you think $150 oil would do to world economy?
    We will have to agree to disagree on the pace at which the production could be replaced. I hope we never have to find out.
     
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  8. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    AS your prior posts note increasing production can't happen overnight. Hell how long does it take a pipeline to get approved to be built to transport crude?

    We don't have enough trucks and rail cars to move the product to ports/refineries.
     
  9. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    Still doesn't answer how all the debris is such good shape. If you look in the picture some of it doesn't even looked scorched from the explosions.
     
  10. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Not a whole lot. We've been over $100 for extended periods of time before and survived just fine. The trade war with China is far more threatening to the world economy than the Middle East potentially slowing oil production.
     
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  11. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Iran exports terror. You have seriously miscalculated and underestimated Iran.
     
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  12. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member

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    Agree. We sold the Saudi's weapons and taught them how to use them. They can put on their big boy pants and retaliate on their own. US can continue to make life difficult for the Iranians with sanctions for now.
     
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  13. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Iran exports terror. KSA exports terror. And Iraq. And Syria. And Afghanistan, Pakistan, and all the rest of them except Israel basically. We can’t control them. We can’t even control one of them — and we’ve been trying for coming up on 20 years.

    If we could wave a magic wand and end terrorism I would be all for it. We can’t. We have repeatedly failed every single time we have tried to pacify the Middle East. If anything we have made things substantially worse for ourselves in the attempts.

    We prop up the Shah, but that causes the Iranian revolution. Then we back Saddam against Iran but he goes rogue. Oops now we have to invade Iraq — twice. Great the bad guy is gone. But oh crap now ISIS and Iran are on the loose in the power vacuum. When does it end? You tell me. A 20 year occupation of Iran, just to have to deal with the next bad guy of the week? No thanks.
     
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  14. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    The Iranian revolution succeeded because Jimmy Carter abandoned the Shah. He thought it would be a good idea. Iran went from a secular monarchy friendly to the west to a radical Shiite theocracy overnight. Iran is largely a secularized population that wants rid of its government. Get rid of the Revolutionary Guard and Iran will accept a secular government and be able to go in its own. What we can’t have is a country threatening to choke off a significant chunk of the world’s oil supply. As Iran has been doing since it places mines on oil tankers. And just escalated. With expansionist goals. And a desire for nukes that has missiles that can reach Asia and Europe. Can’t help it that Bush attacked the wrong country. We are where we are. And, we will be dealing with Iran one way or another. Btw: in the Iran-Iraq war, we played both sides.
     
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  15. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    They do process oil to remove the contaminants. Most oil is not shipped straight out of the ground. It was an oil processing facility that was hit.
     
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  16. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Carter never should have thought that Iran was ready for democracy, Bush shpuldnt have invaded Iraq, Obama shouldnt have routed all the Iraqi aid through the Shiite goverment in Baghdad, and he certainly shouldnt have encouraged the Arab spring and then ran when Assad started the massacres. The list of missteps is long but nature abhors a vacuum. Either support a force to check Iranian expansion and neuter them economically or they will continue to expand their violent growth in an attempt to quash the Sunni and destroy Israel. Sometimes lack of action is the worst action
     
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  17. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Don't omit the grave strategic blunder with Libya that no one wants to talk about.
     
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  18. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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  19. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Interesting reading from all parties, thank you.

    What I'm getting out of all of this is "Big-Oil" continues to be
    the defacto Gov't "In Charge" on the world scene, and they play
    their "puppets" very well. Reminds me of reading about the protagonists / antagonists in the book, "1984".

    For goodness sake aren't we Americans tired of this International Cabal of murderous as$#oles tearing the World apart to enrich themselves?

    I don't know about you but I could really care less how many gold plated "shi$ers" a Saudi Prince has.
     
  20. cocodrilo

    cocodrilo GC Hall of Fame

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    Shouldn't the Foley Doctrine apply to Iran?

    Multiple U.S. administrations have said we will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Iran is working on a nuclear weapon. Doesn't that mean inevitable war with Iran? And Jeremy Foley said, "What needs to be done eventually should be done immediately."

    To answer my own question, I think we should put off that war as long as possible. Something could happen, like an Iranian Revolution, to make war unnecessary.

    Of course, Santa Claus could also bring me Jennifer Lawrence for Christmas.
     
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