Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Housing Market

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Apr 13, 2020.

  1. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

    4,590
    174
    288
    Apr 13, 2007
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    15,207
    1,299
    1,258
    Aug 26, 2008
    Listened to a very good webinar hosted by Urban Land Institute today with speaker from CBRE. Big picture, short term pain, lenders bending over backwards to work with landlords as they do not want waves of foreclosures again. Learned that they could recover more by keeping tenants in place at discounted profits instead of foreclosing and dumping into depressed market. Most markets recovered by 2 quarter 2021
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  3. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    15,207
    1,299
    1,258
    Aug 26, 2008
    Seaker was Spencer Levy. Other tidbits included that there will be big demand for design changes to provide healthy workspaces that employ better air filtration, UV lights, etc to provide a healthier environment to work in. Monthly rent collections for April were not as bad as many feared, May will be real tell. Miami has large international base that will continue to provide capital to fuel growth there. Infrastructure for vacations will not lose value. You can't just build another Universal Studios or WDW. There will be pent up demand for vacation and recreation that will jump start the tourism industry. Commercial cap rates will be down 500 basis points or 5% over nest 2 - 3 quarters. New builds will still get occupied, especially ones with advance clean building tech. Clean building will replace green building as primary component to new builds. Have more cliff notes at work. Webinar was recorded but cannot find link for it
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 2
  4. fubar1

    fubar1 Premium Member

    5,412
    406
    448
    Apr 3, 2007
    Jacksonville, FL
    I could certainly a large number of folks who live in NYC and the surrounding areas want to permanently vacate and move South. The virus has a real chance of just accelerating the trend already in place.

    And of course, if the Dems win the Presidency and Senate, they'll give trillions to NY and NJ to offset revenue declines at the state level.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

    24,609
    2,233
    1,243
    Apr 8, 2007
    Gainesville, FL
    Don't listen to me, I was only a state certified RE appraiser for 3 decades with the foul habit of telling the truth and complying with the law. WTF was I thinking? Just ask cousin Earl or the neighbor down the street because they know so much more than that idiot appraiser. "He's not from here and doesn't know the market". (gag reflex).

    Seriously, when any asset class is at an all time high, normal market behavior will create a correction. Toss in something like a pandemic, the closing of the mill in town, job losses, their just might be a downturn in values. So I've heard, but what would I know about this Sergeant?
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

    5,150
    265
    363
    Apr 8, 2007
    you're a RE appraiser, who knew?
     
    • Funny Funny x 6
  7. jmoliver

    jmoliver GC Hall of Fame

    1,674
    12
    243
    Apr 3, 2007
    That NY/NJ market was softening before the virus hit. Prices per square foot in the $2,500 - $3,000 per square foot were dropping closer to $2,000. They picked a bad time to add the mansion tax right after the LLC rules changed. Really going into uncharted territory.
     
  8. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

    6,531
    529
    698
    Apr 8, 2007
    Normally I’d think everything is going to take a hit, but it seems like in this recession
    We’ve decided everyone is going to make it through pain free. There seems to be a plan to throw money at everyone until it’s COVID19 is mitigated. Well have to see if COVID19 outlasts the political will to rain money.
     
  9. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

    24,609
    2,233
    1,243
    Apr 8, 2007
    Gainesville, FL
    Data source and work file?
     
  10. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    14,672
    1,982
    1,373
    Apr 3, 2007
    Short term multi family will take a bigger hit than single family. A higher proportion of people hit early by this downturn will be renters,
    Most of the major players in the single family space learned from last time a bit. They have already offered forbearance and other programs like suspending evictions so that people don’t get evicted and house prices don’t tank. That can only last so long though, so we will see how long the crisis lasts.
     
  11. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    14,672
    1,982
    1,373
    Apr 3, 2007
    Oh and by the way, the RE group that is going to get crushed is commercial. That is going to be really really ugly.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. Trickster

    Trickster Premium Member

    5,609
    1,328
    548
    Sep 20, 2014
    Florida
    We had tenants for years (one left), and we kept rent low. As a result, I can’t recall but one missed payment in 25 years. We didn’t look at rent as a source of budget-balancing income, but the property as a value-accruing asset. All in all, though, the stock market would have been a far better investment over that period of time.