Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Housing market gurus?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by Chompsuey, Jul 14, 2021.

  1. Chompsuey

    Chompsuey Senior

    248
    73
    263
    Oct 17, 2011
    First off I live in Texas. I listed my residential rental property and got 10k over asking within 3 days on the market. Now I'm strongly contemplating listing my home which if it sells will bring 200k over what I put into it. Problem is there aren't any homes or land available at a reasonable price where I live and I want to keep my son in the same school district. I've been told by multiple people that the market should come back down by years end. If that's the case I will just rent or live in a RV for 6 months. My issue is I don't want to waste money on an unnecessary RV nor on rent if the market will hold strong for the better part of next year. Any ideas or suggestions?
     
  2. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

    17,670
    1,989
    1,318
    Apr 8, 2007
    Real estate is wildly variable by location. North central Florida, my real estate buddy says he doesn't expect housing prices to drop, but for supply catching up with demand to stop the increase in prices. He expects us to plateau sometime in the next 6-12 months and then hold pretty steady for the next 5-10 years before prices start going up again. But you are in Texas, and real estate is too dependent on location for anyone not in your area to have a good idea of what will happen.

    Two friends of ours did sell their houses early to take advantage of the crazy market, but they both had houses already under construction. We are tempted by the extra money (it would be about 150k for us), but without someplace else lined up, it is too high risk for me. Timing the market (unless you are a member of congress) is a matter of luck, and you shouldn't make big financial decisions hoping to get lucky.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  3. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    7,749
    2,244
    1,528
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    Trying to time the market is a fools errand. It could drop tomorrow, or in 3 years. Or never.

    I just went through this and looked at it this way. I sold my house for way more than I paid, and I then overpaid for a house I'll be in for 30 years. So I didn't mind. To me it was an emotional decision more than a financial one.
     
    • Like Like x 3
    • Agree Agree x 3
    • Winner Winner x 2
  4. jeffbrig

    jeffbrig GC Hall of Fame

    1,267
    448
    433
    Aug 7, 2007
    Now may be a good time to sell if you are looking to downsize or get out of home ownership altogether. If you're looking at another property, you're just selling high and buying high. I'm still expecting home prices to remain strong in S FL, since beachfront condos are becoming less desirable due to maintenance concerns.
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. Chompsuey

    Chompsuey Senior

    248
    73
    263
    Oct 17, 2011
    I agree. Mine is emotional. My issue is I don't think I'll ever recoup the money spent on my house if I don't strike now. I don't really like the house even after everything I've done. I sold my last one 1st day on the market in 2018 and this current one was about all I could find without ridiculous taxes etc. I won't overpay and have strongly considered just buying 5 acres and building a nice bardominium for the time being since I'll build it at cost. Land is ridiculously expensive too and hard to find.
     
  6. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    7,749
    2,244
    1,528
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    If you don't like the house then I would definitely sell. Personally I was looking for my "forever home" so overpaying spread out over the lifetime of the house didn't bother me. You may get lucky trying to time the market, but man is that playing with fire. If everything is expensive though than yeah, maybe rent for a bit and decide your next move. Overpaying now vs overpaying in 8 months is all the same I guess.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  7. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    7,749
    2,244
    1,528
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    And fyi, my personal opinion is that the market is going to stabilize but not come down. For what that's worth, which is next to nothing
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  8. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 Premium Member

    2,572
    713
    658
    Oct 11, 2011
    • Like Like x 3
  9. Chompsuey

    Chompsuey Senior

    248
    73
    263
    Oct 17, 2011
    I just don't see how prices per foot where I live can remain $250 plus with the property taxes climbing also. It's crazy. Few people I know that have sold said most the buyers are Cali, NY, or Illinois.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  10. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

    8,963
    573
    298
    Sep 5, 2010
    East Coast of FL
    I think in my area (East CFL), there will be some pull back, it will be more severe in some areas.
    I say this because I'm now seeing super crazy prices on some new listing and sale.

    600k for a 2500sq ft 3/2 with a pool (not water front) type stuff.

    Seems like some are just tossing any number out to see what sticks.

    I doubt it will crash like it did in 2008.

    It's a crap shoot if you should sell now and hope to buy back lower, you also risk losing your Homestead exemption in Fla which can have a huge effect of taxes for years to come.
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  11. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

    17,670
    1,989
    1,318
    Apr 8, 2007
    I will add that retirement communities haven't generally seen the same increases in price, so if you have been considering moving into something like that, now is a great time for doing so.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  12. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    20,721
    3,583
    1,883
    Aug 26, 2008
    Interest rates will be the key. Once rates start climbing prices will begin to drop. Jmo

    The end of the eviction moratorium should present some opportunities if reits dont snap up everything

    OT My daughter and her boyfriend are in search of a rental house in east Orlando. Good tenant, pays bills, boyfriend can do maintenance. Pm me if anybody has a property for rent
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. swampbabe

    swampbabe GC Hall of Fame

    2,792
    857
    548
    Apr 8, 2007
    Viera, FL
    Good luck, rental market in Orlando is crazy. They may have better options on that side of town. My daughter has been looking for a small home (2/2) or townhouse to purchase but these prices are nuts.

    She has been living with us since November as her lease was up and she was working remote, it started to wear on her. Plus, why pay 1500. a month rent just to look at the walls.

    Now that they are slowly opening Disney’s corporate offices she needs to head back and apartment rents are up as well. Orlando has some of the worst housing affordability in the country.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  14. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    7,749
    2,244
    1,528
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    Yeah, I should clarify my comment because I agree with what you said. Mainly I just don't see a crash coming.

    And if you believe in Nobel Winnning Economist Eugene Fama, it is impossible to spot a bubble anyway. You Can’t Spot a Bubble, So Don’t Even Try, Says Eugene Fama | Chief Investment Officer

    And if people think the housing market is going to come down, it would be coming down now, if you believe in the efficiency of the markets
    Fama/Shiller Bubbles
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  15. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

    17,670
    1,989
    1,318
    Apr 8, 2007
    I've got some bad news for you.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  16. jeffbrig

    jeffbrig GC Hall of Fame

    1,267
    448
    433
    Aug 7, 2007
    Not just property taxes - home insurance is getting crazy too. I switched companies 2 years ago when a company quoted us $4.5k/yr instead of the $6k/yr I was paying. Now they've decided they won't allow us renew ("too much exposure"), so I'm having to get insurance quotes (through a broker) on the open market again. The only companies willing to write me a policy today want $10-$12k/yr - and that's with a 5% hurricane deductible. Or we can go to the reinsurance market with someone like Lloyds of London and pay just under $10k, but they pretty much exclude water damage claims. I ain't happy about it...
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
  17. ValdostaGatorFan

    ValdostaGatorFan GC Hall of Fame

    2,430
    404
    378
    Aug 21, 2007
    TitleTown, USA
    I got a good deal on my house a few years ago. It's my first house, and I'm single. I got it for $116k (1500 sq ft, built in 2011) and it got up to $160k recently (Zillow estimate, and that's what similar houses in my small neighborhood are going for). I thought about selling, but I'm in the same boat. I could sell and make a little money, but I'm going to dish it right back out because all the other houses are up in price, too. I wish I had more money saved up. I'd love to find some land in north Florida near a river, build a garage with living quarters or a mother-in-law suite and live there while I built a home.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

    3,350
    787
    443
    Apr 24, 2007
    I have been with Allstate for quite some time now and what you posted is the main reason I’ve stayed. I know I could get someone to give me a better quote but stories like yours have been fairly common for the last few years.


    Allstate isn’t cheap but they are very good and I won’t get cancelled/priced out of renewal.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  19. G8tas

    G8tas All American

    431
    61
    228
    Sep 22, 2008
    I don't see prices dropping unless
    5-10 years is a long time for a housing market prediction.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 GC Hall of Fame

    4,965
    231
    368
    Apr 3, 2007
    Market has already slowed down in South Florida due to increased supply and prices reaching absurd levels. Still very much a sellers market but the days of multiple offers even prior to showing appear to be over, at least for now.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2