Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Gallop: Trump likely gets 4 more years as POTUS

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorRev, May 17, 2020.

  1. nolancarey

    nolancarey GC Hall of Fame

    1,810
    343
    293
    Aug 16, 2009
    Which of the founding fathers was still alive to draft the 22nd Amendment?
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  2. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

    5,721
    639
    308
    Apr 3, 2007
    Sarasota
    The western US could really turn into a disaster for him. His numbers out of Arizona have to be alarming with not a single poll in his favor. Some aren't even close and then the polling for McSally is even worse.
     
  3. Trickster

    Trickster Premium Member

    5,638
    1,334
    548
    Sep 20, 2014
    Florida
    LOL. Good point, though it’s funny how we view “mistake” differently.
     
  4. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    7,926
    607
    1,153
    Apr 8, 2007
    Since this thread is based on a Gallup poll of Trump's popularity as a point on information, below is screenshot from RCP showing Trump's approval rating in multiple polls. Also, as has been previously pointed out Trump is now in the hole among voters age 65 and over, the demographic that was largely responsible for his victory in 2016, and a demographic disproportionately represented in Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania, three states that Trump carried in 2016, will have to carry if he is to win in 2020, and which, according to recent polls is lagging behind Joe Biden.
    upload_2020-5-28_9-56-39.png
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    7,785
    355
    688
    Apr 26, 2007
    Today's RCP polls have Biden +1 over Trump in Florida. And Trump is +4 over Biden in Missouri. But Trump won Missouri by 18 points in 2016. And the Republican governor candidate in Missouri is +8 over his Democratic opponent, so Trump is underperforming the Repub gov candidate by 4 points.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

    1,092
    282
    363
    Jun 14, 2014
    Did Rasmussen change their methodology? Usually they are one of the most Republican-friendly polls. Surprising to see them return the second worst approval ratings.
     
  7. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    7,785
    355
    688
    Apr 26, 2007
    It certainly could have something to do with Trump losing the old folks due to his covid-19 response.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    7,926
    607
    1,153
    Apr 8, 2007
    My theory is that Rasmussen tends to oversample older voters, a demographic that normally skews Republican. Consistent with other polls as well some anecdotal evidence, older voters seem to be abandoning Trump, probably in response to the way he has been handling the Covid-19 pandemic, and that shift is being reflected in the Rasmussen poll on presidential approval.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  9. beanfield

    beanfield GC Legend

    584
    11
    168
    Aug 1, 2009
    All the above doesn't matter...DJT will be reelected in a Landslide come November...That you can believe...
     
    • Funny Funny x 6
  10. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

    8,452
    382
    388
    Apr 3, 2007
    Well, the voting booths also tend to over-sample older voters (or they under-sample younger voters).
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. gatorpika

    gatorpika Premium Member

    6,663
    897
    613
    Sep 14, 2008
    Even if they did oversample older voters
    I thought it was more the DNC doing that. They have long been more sensitive to running a competitive candidate since McGovern and a few others. It was kind of apparent that Sanders' support was capped in the general, even against a trainwreck of an opponent like this one. So instead of letting the moderate track candidates fight it out for another month hoping for a miracle while Sanders accumulated a lead, they made them take stock of their situation and do what was right for the party.
     
  12. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    7,926
    607
    1,153
    Apr 8, 2007
    I agree with your analysis although I don't think it was the DNC so much as the other Democratic candidates and the Democratic primary voters. The model that they used was probably the 2016 Republican primary campaign more so than George McGovern's nomination in 1972. In 2016 the mainstream Republican candidates split the vote paving the way for an outlier to win the nomination. The Democrats didn't want to see a repeat in their own party in 2020. After Biden's overwhelming victory in the SC Democratic primary the other moderate candidates realized that they were longshots and that their continued candidacy could take enough votes away from Biden resulting in a Sanders nomination.
     
  13. gatorpika

    gatorpika Premium Member

    6,663
    897
    613
    Sep 14, 2008
    I think that you are right that 2016 played into the decision, but this has also been part of their playbook for a while. After McGovern and Carter's reelection bid, the DNC implemented the superdelegate program to ensure that the party had a say when the voters went out on a limb with their candidate choice. Carter, McGovern and Mondale received a combined 15% of the electoral votes in the biggest blowout elections since Johnson ran up the score in 1964 in the wake of JFK's death.
     
  14. FutureGatorMom

    FutureGatorMom Premium Member

    5,486
    138
    293
    Apr 3, 2007
    Florida
    I've only seen one person, that was a friend of a friend, who supposedly voted for Hillary and will vote for Trump this fall, there are many many more that voted for Trump that will not vote for him this time. Check out this website: Republicans against Trump It's videos of Americans who voted for him, lifelong Republicans, who have decided to put country over party. God bless them!

    Myself, I have a checkered past, voting for both parties depending on the person. I'm a never Trumper, I could see and can still see right through him.
     
    • Like Like x 3
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. SeabudGator

    SeabudGator GC Hall of Fame

    1,071
    650
    478
    Apr 23, 2014
    So Much Winning....????

    Economy - shambles.
    Deficit - skyrocketing and a bigger problem than ever.
    Making America Great - a country torn by divisiveness, protests, anger and fear
    North Korea - No progress
    China - trade war and no progress (though of all the things he has done, confronting this is the best)
    Nato allies - shambles
    Iraq/middle east - no gains
    coal - ??? More destruction of the environment and an energy sector in free fall
    Afghanistan - giving up (probably not a bad idea but certainly not success)
    Jobs - record unemployment and industry not coming back
    Health Care - "Beautiful" was promised? Reality - going backwards.


    The sad thing is that these idiots rioting and burning down cities tonight obscure the message of the above failures. Anger is correct but our country is torn, scared, wounded and desperately needs real leadership. At this point I just pray we make it to November with this guy....
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Winner Winner x 2
    • Come On Man Come On Man x 1
    • Best Post Ever Best Post Ever x 1
  16. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

    1,866
    694
    533
    Nov 30, 2010
    IMO, pubs voting against Trump is NOT putting country over party. I think voting out Trump is the best thing the party could do. Of course, they should have done it already (primary). I bet I could count on 1 hand the # of pubs congresspeople that will vote for Trump. Can't imagine any group hates him more.
     
  17. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

    17,016
    3,240
    863
    Apr 8, 2007
    northern MN
    The nation is burning and where is its leader? On Twitter? Even when he eventually has a press conference to address the unrest in what used to be a great nation, it will be a hollow, shallow message. He is a president of divisiveness and nothing more.
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

    18,944
    1,342
    838
    Apr 3, 2007
    Along with:
    1. The Tooth Fairy.
    2. Santa Claus.
    3. Bama and UGA will start recruiting fairly and ethically.
    4. All FSU students and alumni have UF acceptance letters.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
    • Agree Agree x 1
  19. FutureGatorMom

    FutureGatorMom Premium Member

    5,486
    138
    293
    Apr 3, 2007
    Florida
    People are desperate for a leader again. These are the best videos I've seen so far: Mack in Florida and Matthew in NJ

    No matter if you agree with either party, we need both. We also need them to go back to working together by playing within the 40 yard lines.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2020
    • Like Like x 2
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  20. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

    4,410
    1,601
    633
    Sep 27, 2007
    Murphy NC
    I'm fairly certain that is not going to happen. Let's define our terms. If landslide means Trump wins by > 10 points, I will cover whatever bet you are willing to put up.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1