Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorRev, May 17, 2020.
Which of the founding fathers was still alive to draft the 22nd Amendment?
The western US could really turn into a disaster for him. His numbers out of Arizona have to be alarming with not a single poll in his favor. Some aren't even close and then the polling for McSally is even worse.
LOL. Good point, though it’s funny how we view “mistake” differently.
Since this thread is based on a Gallup poll of Trump's popularity as a point on information, below is screenshot from RCP showing Trump's approval rating in multiple polls. Also, as has been previously pointed out Trump is now in the hole among voters age 65 and over, the demographic that was largely responsible for his victory in 2016, and a demographic disproportionately represented in Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania, three states that Trump carried in 2016, will have to carry if he is to win in 2020, and which, according to recent polls is lagging behind Joe Biden.
Today's RCP polls have Biden +1 over Trump in Florida. And Trump is +4 over Biden in Missouri. But Trump won Missouri by 18 points in 2016. And the Republican governor candidate in Missouri is +8 over his Democratic opponent, so Trump is underperforming the Repub gov candidate by 4 points.
Did Rasmussen change their methodology? Usually they are one of the most Republican-friendly polls. Surprising to see them return the second worst approval ratings.
It certainly could have something to do with Trump losing the old folks due to his covid-19 response.
My theory is that Rasmussen tends to oversample older voters, a demographic that normally skews Republican. Consistent with other polls as well some anecdotal evidence, older voters seem to be abandoning Trump, probably in response to the way he has been handling the Covid-19 pandemic, and that shift is being reflected in the Rasmussen poll on presidential approval.
All the above doesn't matter...DJT will be reelected in a Landslide come November...That you can believe...
Well, the voting booths also tend to over-sample older voters (or they under-sample younger voters).
Even if they did oversample older voters
I thought it was more the DNC doing that. They have long been more sensitive to running a competitive candidate since McGovern and a few others. It was kind of apparent that Sanders' support was capped in the general, even against a trainwreck of an opponent like this one. So instead of letting the moderate track candidates fight it out for another month hoping for a miracle while Sanders accumulated a lead, they made them take stock of their situation and do what was right for the party.
I agree with your analysis although I don't think it was the DNC so much as the other Democratic candidates and the Democratic primary voters. The model that they used was probably the 2016 Republican primary campaign more so than George McGovern's nomination in 1972. In 2016 the mainstream Republican candidates split the vote paving the way for an outlier to win the nomination. The Democrats didn't want to see a repeat in their own party in 2020. After Biden's overwhelming victory in the SC Democratic primary the other moderate candidates realized that they were longshots and that their continued candidacy could take enough votes away from Biden resulting in a Sanders nomination.
I think that you are right that 2016 played into the decision, but this has also been part of their playbook for a while. After McGovern and Carter's reelection bid, the DNC implemented the superdelegate program to ensure that the party had a say when the voters went out on a limb with their candidate choice. Carter, McGovern and Mondale received a combined 15% of the electoral votes in the biggest blowout elections since Johnson ran up the score in 1964 in the wake of JFK's death.
I've only seen one person, that was a friend of a friend, who supposedly voted for Hillary and will vote for Trump this fall, there are many many more that voted for Trump that will not vote for him this time. Check out this website: Republicans against Trump It's videos of Americans who voted for him, lifelong Republicans, who have decided to put country over party. God bless them!
Myself, I have a checkered past, voting for both parties depending on the person. I'm a never Trumper, I could see and can still see right through him.
So Much Winning....????
Economy - shambles.
Deficit - skyrocketing and a bigger problem than ever.
Making America Great - a country torn by divisiveness, protests, anger and fear
North Korea - No progress
China - trade war and no progress (though of all the things he has done, confronting this is the best)
Nato allies - shambles
Iraq/middle east - no gains
coal - ??? More destruction of the environment and an energy sector in free fall
Afghanistan - giving up (probably not a bad idea but certainly not success)
Jobs - record unemployment and industry not coming back
Health Care - "Beautiful" was promised? Reality - going backwards.
The sad thing is that these idiots rioting and burning down cities tonight obscure the message of the above failures. Anger is correct but our country is torn, scared, wounded and desperately needs real leadership. At this point I just pray we make it to November with this guy....
IMO, pubs voting against Trump is NOT putting country over party. I think voting out Trump is the best thing the party could do. Of course, they should have done it already (primary). I bet I could count on 1 hand the # of pubs congresspeople that will vote for Trump. Can't imagine any group hates him more.
The nation is burning and where is its leader? On Twitter? Even when he eventually has a press conference to address the unrest in what used to be a great nation, it will be a hollow, shallow message. He is a president of divisiveness and nothing more.
1. The Tooth Fairy.
2. Santa Claus.
3. Bama and UGA will start recruiting fairly and ethically.
4. All FSU students and alumni have UF acceptance letters.
People are desperate for a leader again. These are the best videos I've seen so far: Mack in Florida and Matthew in NJ
No matter if you agree with either party, we need both. We also need them to go back to working together by playing within the 40 yard lines.
I'm fairly certain that is not going to happen. Let's define our terms. If landslide means Trump wins by > 10 points, I will cover whatever bet you are willing to put up.