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Food for thought while the sky is falling

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by maxgator, Nov 26, 2023.

  1. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    That’s probably true but the less whining the better.
     
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  2. theycallmecoach

    theycallmecoach All American

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    This is Norvell's 4 year record at FSU against a very weak schedule by SEC standards!


    Year Team Overall
    2020 Florida State 3–6
    2021 Florida State 5–7
    2022 Florida State 10–3
    2023 Florida State 12–0

    After 2 years he was 8-13 (again against a very weak schedule).

    The third year he turned it around.

    Billy is 11-14 after 2 years. Considering the tougher schedule for Billy he is ahead of Norvell.

    It will take 4 years for Napier to really get going partly because of the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC next year and partly because the SEC is a much tougher league to begin with than the ACC IMHO.

    At the end of the fourth year we will probably know what we have.

    Anything sooner will be premature.

    Also, to fire Billy after season 3 (2024) will take about $25 million or so. I really do not want to calculate it exactly.

    Before that is even more expensive!

    I really do not think that he will get fired before the end of the fourth year unless some of you have a whole lot of money that you do not need.

    The contract was designed to take into account the mess he inherited and discourage a firing before he could show what he can do.

    That will come by the 4th or fifth year.

    It takes time to rebuild. Particularly when one is running different offensive and defensive sets than the coach before him.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2023
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  3. theycallmecoach

    theycallmecoach All American

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  4. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep, it's hard to have the mindset that in essence we are starting a program from scratch when we all know we have a history ( and that history includes some greatness). It is almost as if UF decided to launch a program from scratch after hiring BN. A few advantages being having $, facilities, and a big fanbase already in place.
     
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  5. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Napier is dead last???

    That's not very encouraging.
     
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  6. theycallmecoach

    theycallmecoach All American

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    eightiesgator said:
    This is a valid question. How does one define "successful?" Let's look at each coach's SEC record the first three years, going back to Bob Woodruff in 1950:

    Spurrier: 19-3-0 (.864)
    Mullen: 19-7 (.731)
    McElwain: 16-6 (.727)
    Meyer: 17-7 (.708)
    Graves: 12-5-0 (.706)
    Hall: 12-5-1 (.694)
    Zook: 16-8 (.666)
    Muschamp: 13-11 (.542)
    Pell: 7-11-0 (.389)
    Woodruff: 7-11-0 (.389)
    Dickey: 7-12-1 (.375)
    Napier: 6-10 (.375)

    So, where do we draw the line? When to cut the cord and when to wait?



    You are going to have to compare relative strengths of schedules in order to determine the best coach in SEC competition as each schedule is different and some are more challenging than others.

    It is probably going to be rather time consuming as the contests are over different years as well.

    Your comparison is nice but not very meaningful.

    Kind of like what a sport writer tries to do all the time.

    If someone else would like to do the calculations please feel free to do so.

    I have a doctorate in mathematics but would personally rather engage in something more meaningful.

    No offense to anyone but this is just pseudo statistics.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2023
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  7. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    = "there are lies, damn lies, and then statistics."
     
  8. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    So based on your analysis/ comparison to Norvell we should expect at least 8/9 wins next year.??????
     
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  9. theycallmecoach

    theycallmecoach All American

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    Exactly!
     
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  10. theycallmecoach

    theycallmecoach All American

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    I hope so but our schedule is much tougher than Norvell's 3rd year at FSU!

    I just want to see improvement but I am really looking toward year 4 (or 5 at the latest) as the big breakthrough year.

    This is the SEC and that is tough in any language!
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2023
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  11. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't see 8/9 wins, but sure hope you are right.
     
  12. theycallmecoach

    theycallmecoach All American

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    I hope so.

    Every time you fire a coach you start at ground zero it seems.
     
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  13. gatorade

    gatorade All American

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    I am not whining. The reality is the reality.
    Think it is ok to look at it from POV of honesty and calling it like I (and most) see it.
     
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  14. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    Everyone sees the same thing.
     
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  15. gatorade

    gatorade All American

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    I wish. If I had a dollar for the constant Kirby comparison last year pointing to year two of Napier, I would have an extra $100K. That is/was a bad take from the Napier Hive.
     
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  16. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    I support Napier but almost no one thought we were winning more than 7-8 games this year. It’ll be hard to do much better next year either unless we kill it in the portal.
     
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  17. eightiesgator

    eightiesgator GC Legend

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    Oh, I didn't know there was a start date here.
     
  18. eightiesgator

    eightiesgator GC Legend

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    Problem is, we are ALSO a middling team. The other teams no longer fear the Gators, and haven't since 2010.
     
  19. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Pell died in 2001. He hasn't said hello to anyone since then...
     
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  20. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I’ll bet there are at least five SEC coaches who could win with this team right now. So I’m calling BS that we should manage expectations for another losing season. If Napier is the answer, then great. We will see a huge turnaround next season. If he isn’t, then we need to find someone else.
     
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