Florida housing market

You will get laughed at again here, but there are many people whose net worth is being bolstered by their home equity and therefore have a vested interest in the housing prices staying high. They don't like to hear that prices may come down. I agree that we are seeing similar bad practices in the housing market with respect to pricing and lending. Honestly, I expected things to deteriorate more quickly, but the housing market has proved very resilient despite the underlying bad indicators.

 

Yikes. Out of control insurance costs are one thing but these condo fixes are going to be killers.

I know there is plenty of both-sides to go around, but I wonder - if one had to pick - which side is more tolerant, if not proactive, about business friendly cost-cutting (i.e. deregulation) that might have allowed things to get this bad?

And then, completely unrelated of course, I wonder who has held firm control of the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature for, say, the last 25 years?

Ok, ok, I'm not being fair. Just a few weeks ago, Desantis enacted a regulation that ended climate change for the state. Well, at least it removed the words 'climate change' from official state documents, but I'm sure that will bring insurance costs to heel any day now.

 

Makes sense. I paid cash for a place on the beach and the upcoming possible maintenance assessment will chase out some people who cant pull together the amount. That is happening now and this is crappy to say but it is just gentrifying the place. Normal people moving out and wealthy buyers with cash moving in. At least in my place by the ocean.

 

Inventory is actually right around pre-pandemic levels. But there are also a million or more new people in Florida than there were then. And home supply when averaging condos and homes is around five months, which is pretty typical historically. Homes are at about four months, condos are over six. So home prices probably have some room to grow still, condos, for all the reasons discussed have a tougher road.
Some markets as always will do better than others for a variety of reasons and maybe Cape Coral really is having issues because of oversupply, but statewide things are fairly stable right now. We will see if that lasts.

 

Re vehicle markets ….. I’m presently shopping for a motorcycle to replace the HD Heritage I sold in April and my experience is it’s a buyers market. There are quite a few used bikes for sale ….. so many it’s a challenge to decide which to buy and what to offer. I’m not shopping new bikes but I expect sales are slow on new units, too.

I’ve got my eye on a clean 1700 mile 2020 Suzuki GSX-S1000 and a nicely appointed 2020 BMW r1250r.

 

no facts allowed..

I can tell you that I am working on over 5k acres of development that will hold 10k plus homes contracted for purchase by 7 different national builders and they are all chomping at the bit for the ACOE to issue a permit so they can close and get started on the site work.

Anecdotal I know but it is a pretty damn large sample size with multiple national builders involved.

 

lot of old, multi-story condos that didn't keep up with maintenance and /or have structural problems will be torn down and redeveloped. others will present buying opportunities for those that have cash and can pay/fund the assessments that are coming after the laws passed due to surfside collapse, which was 100% preventable if residents had not kept voting against assessments to do repairs. gubmnt trusted people to do what was in their combined best interests and people did what they thought was in their own personal best interests

 

yes

 

Wow. That's pretty serious. I'm curious where, but understand if you can't ...

 

lot of vulchers flying around with low cash offers. sometimes same buyer will send different people with low ball offers to try and scare seller. seen it happen, know someone who played that game. how long was place on market and what time frame did the 4 offers come in over? if she got 4 offers over less than a month she could have held longer to get more

 

Colier County. Naples voted #1 city in country to live

 

I'm sure a lot will be torn down and the land redeveloped. The assessment shock will be hitting a lot of people at approximately the same time. If the condos are replaced with condos, that will take a couple of years and likely with much more expensive units.

 

most because they weren't properly funding reserves for a long time. not funding reserves is analogous to take out a helo and new laws requiring reserves to be funded and structural deficiencies addressed is the balloon payment due

 

I’ve heard this also. New laws requiring big detailed inspections and HOAs being forced to charge large assessments. All in large part to the collapse in S Fla.
Throw in the cost of repairs for big damages after Ian and Nicole.

 

Seems like the used boat market is similar to this.

 

So I watched the first 2-4 min of that video and he slips in the words "in certain cities". Well, duh. Cape Coral is a crappy little area in Ft Myers area. They were slammed with hurricane Ian and so many of the homes in Cape coral were under water. They have septic tanks that came up out of the ground. I can only imagine the price of insurance there now.

In central FL it is still a seller's market with about 3.5 months of inventory right now. The numbers I see changing slightly are DOM and number of new listings, both are up. Eventually homes sitting longer on the market will be competing longer with the new listings and DOM will increase. The only big change I've seen is the slowing, not ending, of multiple offers.

People with those 2-3% mortgages are hanging tough, unless they have to move. Those with the lower rates are getting creative if they are selling. I've seen homes advertised with assumable low rates and buyers offering subject to offers.
I don't see a "crash" but there could be an overall slight price correction if rates go down far enough and more sellers now see an opportunity to move up or out adding more homes to the market.

 

I need prices to continue going up until I sell my house in the future. At that point, they can drop.

 

the US has a housing shortage versus household creation of between 4 and 7 million homes.

material prices, labor prices, land prices, impact fees are all still going up

 

Not seeing that on bay and flats boats in SW Florida, at least not the ones worth having. Be wary of hurricane damaged boats

 

Cape didn't get flooded nearly as bad as Ft Myers. Only small parts of developed Cape has septic as utility expansion projects continue to push central sewer systems north. Lots of nice places in Cape with direct access canals but also lots of spec homes and older homes in areas now being hit with assessment for the city driven utility expansion projects putting in water and sewer.