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Democrats begin their implosion

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by LouisvilleGator, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Most of them are beating Trump in head-to-head polls, but yes, it should be a layup. But keep in mind that any president with good economic numbers at reelection should be doing far better than Trump is. So Trump is very much underperforming given the context.
     
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  2. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Don't worry the media will keep feeding you fake news national polls quite a bit until the election is less than 2 weeks away.

    Stressed About the Election? If So, You've Got Company (POLL)

    October 25, 2016 7:00 am (Pure Gaslighting)

    Voter preferences in the latest tracking poll, based on a four-day survey through Sunday night, remain the same as in a three-day result
    reported Sunday: 50 percent support Clinton, and 38 percent Trump, with 5 percent for Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Jill Stein.

    Clinton's 12-point margin over Trump holds at 53 to 41 percent in a two-way matchup, indicating that Johnson and Stein aren't drawing
    disproportionately from either of the two major-party candidates.

    Other results also hold in a Clinton-Trump pairing, including for the important element of turnout. Republicans are less likely now than
    earlier in the campaign to indicate that they intend to vote. Clinton leads by 19 points in turnout among women, while she and Trump are
    virtually tied among men, reflecting worse results for Trump among all but his core supporters, white men who lack a college degree.
     
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  3. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    And you keep putting your faith in all the polls being wrong. I'm sure that will work out for you. Putting head in the sand always does. The poll you reference above came out a couple of days before Comey's announcement that the Clinton email investigation was being reopened. Shows how much that announcement mattered. And Clinton still won the popular vote.

    Trump is polling terribly right now given the conditions. And he's going crazier by the day. At this rate by October he will have announced that he is dictator for life.
     
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  4. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

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    I completely understand the fact that incumbent Presidents with good economic numbers are nearly impossible to remove. That is terrifying under Trump b/c he is words I can't use on this board. I hope most recognize that he i) inherited a great economy, ii) tax cuts didn't really help, and iii) economy is doing well b/c we are spending more than we bring in at the end of an expansion.

    Far different than what Reagan or Obama did to help the economy in their first four years. Layup might have been the wrong term, but he is crazy enough that I truly don't believe America is dumb enough to trust him for four more years.

    If he wasn't morally bankrupt the 2020 election would look closer to this (maybe a few more blues on the coast).


    upload_2020-2-23_16-15-24.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
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  5. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    I certainly didn't think people would vote for Trump. I thought he was a gift. Then, he won. Bernie, like Trump, is a populist, and that seems to be what people want these days.
     
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  6. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Nope I called it pretty close last POTUS election and knew exactly what they were going to do (media and lefty pollsters) with the national polls - gaslight people until approximately 2 weeks out and make sure they made them show Trump not doing decent with white women etc. to do their gaslighting hoping to make the Trump voters feel it was a lost cause and then as the election was basically right there start having more realistic ones so the numbers weren't off by a mile nationally.
     
  7. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    With the current economic numbers and no unpopular foreign war, Trump should be polling at least 10 percentage points ahead of every one of his potential opponents. With the sole exception of some Rasmussen polls, Trump hasn't received an approval rating above 50 percent in any poll since early 2017. If the unemployment rate stays below 4% and especially if Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, Trump's reelection is almost a slam dunk although he could end up as the only president in American history to lose the popular vote twice in a row and end up with a second term.
     
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  8. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Another example of placing social media to try to create divisiveness among Democrats. Posted like this going up everywhere all over the country. Everywhere on social media. The OP is just following the playbook here. With the assumption that Sanders winning reflects a meltdown. Right out of the GOP-Putin playbook. I reject the assumption. Be smarter.
     
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  9. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Not sure I agree with Fox News being the reason why he shifted so far to the Left. I know the Obama and Al Sharpton act got on everyone's nerves, and that made people choose sides that might have just stayed more noncommittal, especially on TV.
     
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  10. WhattaGator

    WhattaGator "Where's The Beef"?? (Or the crabcakes, etc.)... VIP Member "Cook Shack Chef"

    1; Although Bernie might be the current frontrunner im this...
    Most of the people in this Country are not going to elect a socialist.

    2; Although Bloomberg is still flooding the TV with commercials, he put his foot in his mouth once more...
    In his latest commercial, he statres that he saw NYC through during the 9/11 attacks....The only problem with that is...
    He had nothing to do with it....Rudy Guliani was the Mayor at that time, and he was the one who saw NYC throough that.
     
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  11. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

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    Murphy NC
    So pollsters are intentionally reporting false results, getting paid large fees and still have repeat clients? excuse me a second


    [​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

  12. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Exactly - I even called it in 2016 and almost nailed their timing of the major gaslighting and when they would back off so the final poll average wouldn't be a joke like many of the polls farther out than about that 2 week mark. That way they can claim their final polls weren't a joke despite the previous ones used to gaslight the public.

    I even said their gaslighting would be geared to mostly white women results like it was with their manipulated poll results used in the articles. They think they can psychologically affect people some with their mess. Who knows maybe it can work just a little but I doubt much anymore with how people just laugh at the mess now.

    Edit: You do realize they are being paid for manipulation sometimes.
     
  13. gator10010

    gator10010 GC Hall of Fame

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    Everyone learned a lesson about polls in 2016. I think Sanders has the best chance of beating Trump out of all the potential Democratic candidates. I don't think anyone in this field can beat Trump in the current state we are in.

    Is Trump under performing? Should Trump be "polling better"? I have no idea.

    Democrats have an uphill battle. Trump is self promoting, marketing machine. The guy gets more free run than the rest of the candidates combined. Every channel, every radio station, every social media platform it's Trump, Trump, Trump.....on top of all this Trump is a celebrity and an entertainer.

    That is a tough combination to beat in good economic times, low unemployment and no wars.

    Regardless of what the polls say Trump is likely to win the election.
     
  14. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    The GOP doesn’t define the Democrat selection process like this thread title and discussion suggests. That is how voter suppression works. The opposition tries to define the opponents selection process. This nonsense will be all over social media until Election Day from Republicans. The GOP problem is that they have a wannabe authoritarian dictator who is using his office to enrich himself etc. etc. All of that will ignite the Dems; of course the GOP will enthusiastically support that type of leadership too.
     
  15. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    This myth that the polls were wrong in 2016 never seems to die, but they weren’t, at last at a national level.
    The final RCP average had Hillary winning by 3.2 points, she won by 2.1, well within the margin of error and actually pretty good.
    Some of the states were off a bit, but even many of those weren’t bad, they just tilted with the margin of error the right way.
    For the polls to have been relatively right, have him lose by 2 million votes or more, and trump still to win, he had an almost impossible path. He won PA .7 percent, Florida by 1.2, Wisconsin by .7 (the only real state level miss by the pollsters, they were way off there), and Michigan by .3 percent. He hit an inside straight on the river. Props to his staff for identifying where to put him and how to pull it off, but it was a crazy bit of good luck too.
    That is highly unlikely to happen again, we will get a more conforming race this time, regardless of who wins.
     
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  16. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    "Off a bit"? Wow, that is some revisionist history there. Several key swing states were waaaay off and everybody knows the national popular vote isn't what counts, it's the electoral college. If we look at realclearpolitics average of polls, they had the following heading into Election Day 2016:

    Michigan: Clinton +3.4
    Wisconsin: Clinton +6.5
    Pennsylvania: Clinton +1.9
    Even Ohio was way off showing Trump only +3.5 (he won by a 8.1% margin)
    Iowa: Trump +3.5 (he wins by 9%)

    Those are the states that clinched the night for Trump and all the polling was heavily skewed one way. Margin of error, my ass. The polling was abysmal.

    RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Race Changes
     
  17. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    same way the pubs gave us trump. by the time the pride has passed he had the momentum sowed up

    Andrew Yang: 'Someone needs to pull an Andrew Yang' and drop out of 2020 race - CNNPolitics

    Washington (CNN)Entrepreneur Andrew Yang said Saturday that the still-wide Democratic presidential field needs to unite, and joked that someone ought to "pull an Andrew Yang" and drop out of the race.

    "The rest of the field needs to consolidate, ideally," Yang said on CNN. "And each candidate wants to be the last person standing to absorb the non-Bernie energy," meaning front-runner Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
    "Someone needs to pull an Andrew Yang," Yang said with a laugh, referencing when he ended his own presidential campaign just last week. At the time, he told supporters he had done the math and did not see a path to secure the nomination. Yang has since joined CNN as a political commentator.
     
  18. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    In Colorado Hillary outperformed the polls by 2 points, 6 points in California, 4.5 and 4.3 in Illinois and NY, 3.2 in a Nevada, among others, it almost evened out in the end. But those don’t count I guess because they don’t fit the narrative? State polling swings more because there are fewer polls and small changes can make big differences. But she underperformed in exactly the wrong states and overperformed in the wrong ones. Again, the national number was off by 1.1 points, by statistical standards that is a really good job.
    It was a very narrow path to victory that he found his way through, that one point it was off nationally swung three states that swung the election. If Hillary had that one point in Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin she would have been president, albeit narrowly. It was a statistically unlikely event that 1 point difference could swing a national election for the popular vote loser.
    And no, I didn’t vote for her, I am in no way a Clinton apologist. Just that the narrative around polls are used to discredit bad news, real or imagined. Gets frustrating to see over and over again.
    Not gonna belabor the point though. It’s basic statistics, either you see it for what it is or what you want it to validate.
     
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  19. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    That’s exactly what we all thought during the 2016 Republican primary with Trump. It never materialized that way and I’m not so sure it would here either. There’s a lot of similarities between the Trump and Sanders movements.

    It’s just one state and quite diverse but he took 47% of the Nevada caucus vote. The remaining candidates essentially shared the other half of the voters. Other states will be tighter but he’ll absorb votes from other candidates that drop out it just remains to be seen as to the share he garners. I think it’s much higher than you believe.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2020
  20. nolancarey

    nolancarey GC Hall of Fame

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    OK, you need to learn what gaslighting actually is. You're really pulling a Princess Bride "Inconceivable" thing here. It's dumb and when you do it it makes the entire Gator Nation look bad.

    So here's what gaslighting isn't: An incorrect prediction.

    When even Fox News predicted Hillary winning, you know it's not just some coordinated attempt to lie to the public......................................

    ...........Oh. I think I get it. You're trying to gaslight your Gator brethren into thinking gaslighting is something other than what it is. Kind of a shitty move on your part.