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Cratering Poll Numbers

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Trump's little PR debacle, apparently courtesy of seasoned political advisor Ivanka, will go down as one of the worst blunders in the history of presidential politics.
     
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  2. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    • Agree Agree x 2
  3. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    The Sarah Cooper "Trump" collection:



     
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  4. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    I follow her on tik tok. She is brilliant.
     
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  5. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    I posted this once. Then deleted cuz I thought I was suckered by a parody account. Alas, apparently it’s real.

     
  6. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    NYT keeping Dems on their toes!

    Are the Polls Missing Republican Voters?

     
  7. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    Just like you libs were delusional when you thought Hillary was going to win!!!! LOL
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 30, 2020
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  8. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    We were delusional because national polls indicated she would win the popular vote by one or two percent? The state polls were not timely or accurate enough to show Trump leading in key swing states by tenths of a percentage point. That won't happen again.
     
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  9. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Looks like the overall numbers are flat now with Trump's numbers fixed at around 41% and Biden around or just below 50%. Biden is looking good in most of the key swing states. Here's the latest No Toss Up map from RCP.

    Screen Shot 2020-07-30 at 2.06.37 PM.png
     
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  10. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    The real simple calculus of this fall is that without winning PA WI and MI again Trump can’t win.
    And right now he is behind in all three.
    From this map you could give him all three plus Ohio and NC and he still loses. Or all three plus Florida and he still loses. If he only loses PA and FL from 2016 he loses. If he loses the three rust belt states only he loses.
    His path to victory is really narrow right now. Still time for that to change though.
     
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  11. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Biden leads in Wisconsin by 5%, Michigan by 8%, Pennsylvania by 6%, Nevada by 4%, Arizona by 3.2%, North Carolina by 3.2% and Florida by 6.7%. State polls are a little iffy right now because they're not being conducted on a daily or even weekly basis. The bad news for Trump is that those swing state numbers are growing in Biden's direction.

    Below is the electoral map with toss ups. Those states are all listed as toss ups. If Biden wins all the states I just mentioned along with the various shades of blue states, he finishes with 329 electoral votes. Of course Biden might not win all of them. He could lose two or three of them. But he could win in Texas where Trump leads by just .02%.

    Screen Shot 2020-07-30 at 2.23.32 PM.png
     
  12. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    If the country bumpkins in those states finally see the memo maybe they will change their minds about getting worked last time. I'm not holding my breath.
     
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  13. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    And he could lose Texas.
     
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  14. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    • Informative Informative x 2
  15. gatorsforevr

    gatorsforevr Junior

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    I love how Trump supporters go back to 2016 to make points and skip right over 2018. This is going to be much more 2018 with a favorable Senate map than 2016.
     
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  16. pkaib01

    pkaib01 Premium Member

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  17. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    And there were plenty of Republicans who predicted a Romney win in 2012. It happens.
     
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  18. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    NYTimes has a great analysis of estimated contributors to Trump and Biden's campaign down to the zip code level.
    You have to factor in timing on a lot of it. Democratic contributions were going to multiple candidates until Biden secured the nomination.
    in Florida, Trump has an estimated 117,000 donors to Biden's 102,000.
    If you have access to the story, you can place your cursor on each zip code to see the numbers there.

    upload_2020-7-30_17-42-57.png


    Trump vs. Biden: Who’s Winning the Money Race in Your ZIP Code?
     
  19. RIP

    RIP VIP Member

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    Jacksonville loves them some Trump.
     
  20. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    Unfortunately, yes. But just southwest of there, into Clay County, is incredibly red. As I said on the Florida virus thread, I was in Keystone Heights today. Not many masks down there.
     
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