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Cratering Poll Numbers

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Hi Navy,
    It will be interesting how the military vote shakes out.
    While a traditional Republican voting block, it seems that
    Trumps controversies with the military leadership could swing a few votes
    back to Dem's.
     
  2. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yessir. It's amazing that a republican president can throw so much money at what has been a republican stronghold and still have a negative approval rating, especially among officers.
    His military controversies have not flown well with the group. When Mattis called him out, that was a pretty big hit for trump as Mattis enjoys around a 86% approval rating among the military.

    I think that trump's serious, visible character flaws will push a lot of centrist military to the Biden camp. He is more palatable to them than HC was.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  3. gator10010

    gator10010 GC Hall of Fame

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    Technically, it should matter but...

    In the current political climate, I don't think that will matter because of the way the MSM touts the polls as gospel.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  4. pkaib01

    pkaib01 Premium Member

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    That bad ole MSM again. Cry me a river.

    I have yet to see a poll described in any other way than as a poll. In fact, how on earth can a poll be touted as the teaching or revelation of Christ?
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
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  5. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 Junior

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    Another canary in the coalmine is where Trump is advertising. He only has new ad buys out in MN and NM. Otherwise, he is trying to shore up places like Texas, Georgia and Iowa. That's not a good sign for his campaign.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
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  6. leftcoastgator

    leftcoastgator Ambivalent Zealot Premium Member

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    Excellent post.

    The “polls were wrong” narrative is partially true. The national polls were very accurate, around 1%-2% of the final vote. The one national poll that had Trump winning was the LA Times panel poll, which had Trump +5% of the popular vote, ironically one of the largest errors of any of the national polls.

    Nate Silver of 538 said at the time the 70% does not take into account the potential for systemic error in state polling. State polling was bad in 2016 because the newspapers that traditionally paid for state polls didn’t have the money. They still don’t, so expect state polling to be weak in 2020 as well.

    Silver didn’t minimize Trump’s chances because of the systemic error possibility and lack of state polls down the stretch. He said Trump’s chances were about the same as a major league all-star getting a hit at any at bat.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    What do you mean 'as gospel?' They're saying it's the latest poll, just as they've always done.
    Have you seen any media outlet claiming that a July poll proves what will happen in November?
     
    • Winner Winner x 5
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  8. Tjgators

    Tjgators VIP Member Premium Member

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    I completely disagree with anything that comes from the media and believe the Republicans will add the most diverse group to Congress ever. I do like 538 though.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
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  9. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Biden isn't Trump's opponent. It's "Not Trump." He's been losing to "not Trump" since long before Biden even announced his candidacy. I know the election isn't until November but he's been underwater since his second month in office. The closest he ever got was on 45.8% April 2nd, which I believe coincided with some positive unemployment numbers. That's his ceiling. He's been in a free fall since then and given how the pandemic is going, I don't see a way back by November.

    Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 4.57.07 PM.png
    How Popular Is Donald Trump?
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
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  10. AndyGator

    AndyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump's nosedive is not over. There will come a time when Republicans have to decide when to cut losses. That, or face possible political extinction.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
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  11. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Well said!!

    Signed,
    Matt Bevin, Kentucky Governor for Life...if not by the votes of the many, in the hearts of the few.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
    • Funny Funny x 4
  12. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

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    There will be one, or probably more, “October Surprises” coming. Never forget that the corrupt Bill Barr is head of DOJ and looking out for trump - I am very certain there will be announcements about investigations involving Biden (not actual investigations) and there will be hosannas and misinformation when Durham’s report is finalized in about mid to late October. And of course the Pubs have perfected voter suppression through practice and trial and error. Biden will need to be carrying a large lead to weather the cheating that will come. trump is not about to let the will of the people decide this because he will lose.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  13. ovillegator

    ovillegator Premium Member

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    St. Augustine!
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  14. StrangeGator

    StrangeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That's one poll and it's a huge outlier. Biden's lead will grow as Trump's disapproval rate creeps lower. The most respected polls like Data for Progress, IPSOS, YouGov, Rasmussen, Harris X have Biden up by an average of almost 10 points. Nate Silver doesn't even publish Newsweek's polls.
     
  15. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    I think this is exactly right. More dominoes to fall. Hell, Pence’s speech in Tulsa seemed like a Eulogy
     
  16. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

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    While this is likely, and earned as well, I think it happens late. trump has extremely high approval ratings among likely Pub voters and the enablers running for office tremble in fear that the next tweet from trump will criticize them. they line up to compete to be seen as the biggest trump supporter.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  17. ovillegator

    ovillegator Premium Member

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    St. Augustine!
    it matters not what we think, Trump is closing in with ALL bad news. If the virus lets up at all, the economy surges and we have 4 more blissful years.
     
  18. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

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    Why would the virus “let up”. Wishful thinking accomplished nothing.

    If we had leadership on masks, testing and tracing we might have forced it down. But we don’t. We have wishful thinking.

    It’s not going away until we act to make it go away. Our leader hasn’t met with the task force in a month. He’s moved on. He’s engaged in wishful thinking. November 3rd we get to end the ignorance.
     
    • Winner Winner x 5
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  19. l_boy

    l_boy Junior

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    Correct. The national polls were well within the margin of error, and to say that something with a 30% probability of coming true actually does means the poll is wrong shows a complete misunderstanding of statistics.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  20. 1990Gator

    1990Gator VIP Member

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    I’ve followed your posts for many years Gary and you seem very reasonable, I have one question:

    What if the voters vote President Trump a second term?

    I’m interested to hear your thoughts (either here or via PM if you choose)