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Cratering Poll Numbers

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Below are real clear politics average polls nationally and from swing states. Trump has some work to do or at least hope Biden taps Hillary Clinton for VP.

    I expect Biden will win all 57 states.

    RealClearPolitics - Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls

    NATIONAL:
    BIDEN - 51.2%
    TRUMP - 41.4%
    Biden leads by 9.8%.


    WISCONSIN:
    BIDEN - 47.7%
    TRUMP - 42.3%
    Biden leads by 5.4%


    FLORIDA:
    BIDEN - 50.5%
    TRUMP - 44.3%
    Biden leads by 6.2%


    MICHIGAN:
    BIDEN - 49.8%
    TRUMP - 41.8%
    Biden leads by 8%


    PENNSYLVANIA:
    BIDEN - 49.3%
    TRUMP - 43.7%
    Biden leads by 5.6%

    NORTH CAROLINA:
    TRUMP - 45.8%
    BIDEN - 45.2%
    Trump leads by .6%

    ARIZONA:
    BIDEN - 47%
    TRUMP - 43%
    Biden leads by 4%

    NEVADA:
    BIDEN - 48.3%
    TRUMP - 44.3%
    Biden leads by 4%

    OHIO:
    TRUMP - 44.5%
    BIDEN - 44.0%
    Trump leads by .5%

    NEW HAMPSHIRE:
    BIDEN - 48.0%
    TRUMP - 43.7%
    Biden leads by 4.3%

    Even the worst poll in America is upside down for Trump.

    President Trump Job Approval
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2020
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  2. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I was playing with RCP's map and it looks like Trump needs Florida. If Biden gets Florida, in addition to his "safe" states, he can win with as little as one more state. Biden's safe states, plus Florida and Pennsylvania, for example, gives him the win. So, get ready Florida, Trump is going to have throw everything he's got at us ... it's going to be desperation.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2020
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  3. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

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    If Biden can give people just a nugget of a message, he will win going away. Democrats learned in 2004 that you can’t just run someone on “he’s not Bush.” Trump is far worse, but Biden actually does need a message. If he can be clear and concise at least one time, he wins going away. But he can’t hide forever.

    Problem for Republicans is Trump is a bad president. Problem for Democrats is they nominated a marionette.
     
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  4. wgbgator

    wgbgator Tiny "Boop Squig" Shorterly Premium Member

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    A Van Down By the River
    Seems like he's been killing it by running almost no campaign, from the primaries to late June. No need to fix what isn't broke lol. His people seem to be doing a good job of keeping him just visible enough for people to realize he's running for president too, and that's about it. Ultimately I don't think there's any message that Biden can deliver that will help him, if he wins its purely because they hate the other guy more. This isn't 2016, all reelections are a referendum on the incumbent, so being not-Trump is probably good enough. It will be crazy because he has a chance to win big, but also have almost no mythological mandate, since the bulk of his support will just be anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden voters.
     
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  5. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, right now Biden's best strategy is to let trump be trump. Every time trump tweets or has some defining event like Tulsa, Biden's numbers seem to improve.
     
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  6. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

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    . I suspect some of what he throws will include bogus claims of wrong doing by Biden and faux "investigations" or announcements of "investigations" by the quislings in the compromised DOJ and his shameless enablers in the Senate. Its not about right and wrong it is 100% Us vs Them.
     
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  7. wgbgator

    wgbgator Tiny "Boop Squig" Shorterly Premium Member

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    Actually I think there is one thing that Biden could do to hit the home run and turn it into a route, make Michelle Obama his VP candidate. But that probably wont happen for any number of reasons.
     
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  8. wgbgator

    wgbgator Tiny "Boop Squig" Shorterly Premium Member

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    Right now part of Trump being Trump is him burning money by running ads in DC to make him feel good when he watches TV and holding rallies in states that he will win easily. So, its not like Biden's opponent is smartly capitalizing on his absence either.
     
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  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Biden is doing just what he should be doing. Saying nothing. If Biden is talking, he usually says something stupid. Just stay quiet and let Trump implode like he's doing. This coming from a lifelong conservative who won't vote for Trump.
     
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  10. GatorNavy

    GatorNavy Anchors Aweigh Moderator VIP Member

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    The democratic plan to keep Biden sequestered is working for now, but the problem will be when it's time for him to step back in front of the microphone.
     
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  11. wgbgator

    wgbgator Tiny "Boop Squig" Shorterly Premium Member

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    As long as they are of the goofy variety, I don't understand why people think his gaffes will hurt him. Honestly the Grampa Joe cringeworthy stuff seems to be half his appeal with the over 60 crowd. The one thing Joe is actually good at is retail politicking, so being around people is more of a strength than liability.
     
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  12. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm sure one of the strategies will be to put trump on defense - making him defend his dismal record on the pandemic, racial relations, and the US standing in global politics and loss of respect as well as his many expressed unconstitutional/illegal policy wishes. If he can do that the inevitable gaffes may be comparatively minor.
     
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  13. ursidman

    ursidman GC Hall of Fame

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    In my part of NC I am most frequently seeing trump commercials that point out Biden's age and "infirmities". Commercials that show Biden stuttering or pauses in speeches and unflattering snapshots. They are official trump campaign ads and he is donald j trump and he approves.
     
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  14. homer

    homer GC Hall of Fame

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    Give Trump enough rope and he will hang himself.

    Trump had the chance to win another term if he would have shut the hell up and quit with the twitter BS.

    He is his own worst enemy and he doesn’t recognize it.

    If Biden picks a center VP or one that’s remotely center, he may win in a landslide.

    As conservative as I am, I’m tired of Trump’s BS. Actually, I’m tired of politics all together. At 67, I can just ride it out the rest of my life and let the youngins decide the future.

    I’m actually thinking about staying home this election, I’m so disappointed in where we are as a country. That would be a first for me and I started voting at age 18.
     
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  15. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

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    For context - The Real Clear Politics polling average in the week leading up to the election showed Clinton up 3.5% nationally and the final vote total was +2.1%. Their polling average was fairly accurate. If the margin's stay that wide, there just isn't a path to 270 for Trump. It is a long way to November.
     
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  16. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    I would like to see more PA polling. Relative to what we are seeing in places like WI and FL, the results there don't really make a ton of sense.
     
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  17. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Concur.
    2016 was a good one to sit out too.
     
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  18. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    And the avg had her around 46%. Biden being consistently at or above 50% is a huge difference.
     
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  19. pkaib01

    pkaib01 Premium Member

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    Outstanding!
     
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  20. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    If Biden is going to win states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then Trump has to win Ohio and Florida to win a close election.

    Ultimately I think Ohio goes for Trump by 2-3 points (no Pub pres ever elected without it) and Florida ends up a toss up. I think Biden wins back many of the states that Trump won (Wisconsin, Michigan, PA) but Trump keeps NC.
     
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