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Could UF upset UGA next season?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by jhbyrd, Feb 14, 2018.

  1. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    When speaking to a Georgia fan under the age of 80, you may have to explain what a "natty" is. He might think it's a beer.
     
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  2. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    The OP is already granting the "fact" that Georgia's OL, DL, and QB will be better than UF's. Based on that proposition alone, we are a long-shot to win the game. When you win the line-of-scrimmage (on both sides of the ball, no less), you are more than halfway on your way to winning the ball game.

    And how confident are you that UF's QB play will be better this year than last? Based on a true freshman QB in a new system? Playing in the SEC? Granted, our QB play was fairly sketchy last year. But there is no guarantee it will get better in one year, even with a QB that will eventually be a good one.

    I'd like to be optimistic here, but it will be a long climb upward for UF to get to average, and average won't cut it against a top-10 team, which is likely what UGa will be.
     
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  3. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    Get your "facts" straight. I did not say that UGA would be better than UF on the DL nor did that article. We both lost a DT early to the NFL and return 4 and 5 stars on the DL. UGA lost their stud LBs. UF's secondary will be better.

    UGA returns their freshman QB from last year who should be better than UF'S QB. How do you know for certain he won't get injured in the 8 games prior to UF? They play the tough LSU defense with a stud DL the prior game while UF plays Vandy. QB Luke Del Rio wants to know how you know UGA's QB won't get injured.

    Defense and QB are very important in the SEC and UGA has the QB and UF the better defense but a key injury can knock either of those out.

    If the UF WR transfers get in UF then UF will have the better match up versus the opposing defense. If healthy so we will see. UGA has smaller speed WRs and lost their number one WR from last year who was a large WR. Since UF has speed CBs they can handle speed WRs that UGA returns better than that large WR UGA lost (UGA 'S #1 WR).

    5 star WR Grimes is similar to UGA's large WR who they just lost. Grimes was the state of Florida 300 meter hurdle champ.

    The part you are missing when you assume the UF team from last year is returning is that UF last year was missing the most players in the NCAA in that game. How do you know that will repeat? Are you guaranteeing UF will get 9 players suspended the 2nd year in a row? Is UF going to lose its defensive leader and best QB again? Harris wants to know.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2018
  4. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    I think the Gators will show up and give the smelly dawgs a game. Who gives a crap if they are favored.
     
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  5. staticgator

    staticgator Senior

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    It's a rivalry game in which both teams have good players. Anything can happen.
     
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  6. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    As I keep telling you there are no guarantees. It is still playing out. Your "Facts" can change. No one knows what players will become available after Spring practice and who will get injured. UF kept scholarship room.


    If this guy transferred to UF he would have more experience in the Mullen/Meyer system than the sophomore UGA QB has in the UGA system. Could lead to better decision making than UF had last season at QB. Burrow has already been throwing to our 5 star WR transfer Grimes at OSU.

    https://www.seccountry.com/florida/florida-ohio-state-quarterbacks-joe-burrow-grad-transfer
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  7. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/joe_burrow_972191.html


    "he played in five games last season, completed 78.6 percent of his passes - 22 of 28 - and threw for 226 yards and two touchdowns ... he is majoring in business."

    Burrow could come to UF and work on his MBA and play in a system he is familiar with.


    "Ohio Mr. Football, first-team Associated Press all-state and the Division III co-offensive player of the year after throwing for nearly 4,500 yards with 63 touchdowns and only two interceptions ... threw for over 11,400 yards with 157 touchdowns in his career plus rushed for over 2,000 yards with 27 more TDs"
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  8. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Do you think he could be as great as Malik Zaire was for UF? We haven't had much luck with transfer QB's, if you haven't been paying attention. (Other teams, OTOH, have had pretty good luck with QB's who have transferred OUT of UF.) It is very hard to transfer into a conference that plays very aggressive and talented defenses and be a functional QB with only a year or two to get ready for it. The margin for error in the SEC is much smaller.
     
  9. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    The bottom line is that Georgia has recruited much, much better than UF the last few years, AND they have done a better job of developing that talent. When Georgia has an injury, the backup is usually ready to play. Mullen may eventually be able to say the same, but Mac left this team in worse condition than any coach since Dickey. The cupboard was not only empty, but severely vandalized. And UF is just now starting to catch up in facilities to the rest of the SEC (nice work, Foley!).

    It doesn't matter if UF gets nine players suspended or not, or Georgia has a rash of injuries or not. They just have a lot more talent (raw and developed) than we have going into this season. And that will overcome most of these issues.

    And the nonsense about UF's fast cornerbacks "neutralizing" UGa's fast WR's is just silly. If we don't get a pass rush with our DL, it won't matter how fast our CB's are. If the QB has time, then the WR's have the advantage, because they know where their route will go. Running a pattern and covering a WR is not a foot race. Speed helps, but doesn't do much good if the QB has plenty of time to throw.

    Luke del Rio was one of the most injury-prone QB's in college football in recent years. I'm sure he is confused as to why other QB's do not get injured every other play, but it doesn't mean everyone else is confused. Another detail is that UGa does a better job protecting their QB's than UF did under McIlwain.
     
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  10. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    You left out of your bottom line that UGA lost a boat load of starters. More than UF.

    Malik was from a different system than Mac ran. That OSU QB would be a much better fit for Mullen than Malik was for Mac.

    Mullen and Meyer run the same system and they won 2 national championships while in the SEC with that system. The Auburn QB SEC transfer sure worked out great for them.

    There is no guarantee the OSU grad transfer would come to UF but it shows you there are options out there that could help UF at QB.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  11. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    This alone shows you have no idea what you are talking about. Schools pay huge amounts in attorney's fees to stop this type of NCAA scholarship loss. Money talks and BS walks.
     
  12. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    SEC defenses never take out QBS just ask FSU. Oh that's right FSU lost their QB last season to an SEC defense. No guarantees when facing SEC defenses and UGA will face a loaded LSU DL prior to the UF game. UGA is not guaranteed to have a healthy Fromm as you claim.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  13. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    You are underestimating UF's DL and over estimating UGA's OL. It will be a battle.

    That is a big IF on UF not getting a pass rush.

    Your claim that UF won't get a pass rush is naive. 5 star Slayton is the perfect size for a big 3-4 nose guard. 5 star CECE Jefferson and Zuniga will not be easily handled. UF has other pass rushers who are getting bigger and better like Moon.

    https://scout.com/college/florida/Article/Gators-Vosean-Joseph-Jeremiahs-a-freak-to-me-107767319

    Moon now being trained by this guy:



    What you miss is that Shannon's system is different from Grantham's. Shannon sits back and reacts while Grantham will attack.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  14. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Based on what? The last time we played the final score was 42-7 and georgia did not need to throw the football.
    There will not be a pass rush if they run the ball past our DL with ease. As well, georgia is very good at selling the play action that catches defenses off guard then out of position.

    The good news, on one hand, is that georgia lost two very good RBs. But, it was not the talent of those players that killed us. Any decent RB would have had significant yards against our run D... and as far as I know they are returning a similar OL. First order of business is to somewhat control the LOS and at least significantly slow the run compared to last game.

    We have not had a pass rush for close to a millennium. It's been frustrating to say the least. To see opportunities for pass rush against georgia should mean it's because they cannot run the ball as well. But having those opportunities does not guarantee we will be good at it based on our recent history of not much pass rush.

    That is true but how much difference that makes this season is a guess at this point.

    The biggest question I see for us vs georgia is if our offense can score. My estimation is it will be much easier for georgia's staff to put together a plan to stifle our new offense than ours to stifle theirs. I know this will sound crazy but georgia also beat Miss St 31-3 last season. Think about that for a minute.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
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  15. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    Based on the addition of talent that was injured/suspended or unavailable the last UGA game.

    UF will have a huge 5 star nose guard Slaton and 2 other solid DTs. Plus depth. Plus UGA loses their leaders on defense and their #1 WR on offense.



    What happened last year vs UGA was UF was missing over 20 players and was starting a slow walk on LB who all teams picked on. The odds are against your assumption that we will be like last year's team with 20 missing players again and UGA with virtually no missing players again.

    Now in our new 3-4 system we only need 3 DTs so we have plenty of depth at DT plus our LBS like CECE will be big. We will get 3 LBS back who were suspended or injured last season. No walk on LB starters next game. Watch out for disrupter Polite and a stronger long armed Moon in the pass rush.

    Shannon's system was not designed for pass rush whereas Mullen's is designed for pass rush so odds are there will be better pass rush than last year.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  16. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Byrd thinks that the OL and DL get together before the first snap and compare the number of stars they had coming out of high school, and that decides who will win the battle in the trenches. "Coach, that defensive end was a 5-star--I had to let him sack the quarterback. I was only a 3-star in high school. What could I do?"

    Of course, we won at least one national championship with a 2-star offensive lineman (Steve Rissler says hello) starting for us. And he was mostly flanked by 3-star offensive linemen, like Medder, Tartt, and Trautwein. Does anyone think they asked Ohio State's 4- and 5-star defensive linemen how many stars they had in high school as a prerequisite for blocking them in the 2006 season MNC game?
     
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  17. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    So, UF's defensive linemen get bigger and better, while Georgia's offensive linemen get smaller and weaker?

    Look, you can take the number of sacks that UF got in last year's Georgia game and double it, or even triple it. Do we win that game with the number of sacks tripled?

    If Jefferson was so good, why didn't he get more sacks against Georgia in 2017? Why is he waiting until 2018 to become a big star? Becoming a dominant football player is not a switch that can be turned on in one season. Players typically get better gradually over the course of their career.

    And being the perfect size to play a position tells me nothing about how good he is. I am the perfect size to play WR, but I am a quarter century too old and my knees creak when I walk. I don't think anyone would brag about me being on their football team.
     
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  18. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Three points:

    1) Auburn is a school that will take a chance on a freakishly athletic QB with discipline problems, up to and including actual crimes, as well as a father that holds his hand out for the highest bidder. UF does not go looking for football players with discipline problems to transfer in, and UF does not pay for football players. Let us know if you find out that policy has been changed.

    2) It usually takes more than a year for a QB to develop in a new school to the point of being very good, even if he came from the same "system". (And I would not say that Meyer and Mullen play exactly the same system, but their styles are similar.) You can't just plug in a QB and expect him to be great from Day 1. That is why it is rare to see true freshmen QB's dominate. That's why we severely limited the playbook for Tim Tebow when he was a true freshman, and opened it up enough when he was a sophomore that he won the Heisman Trophy.

    3) UF's problems right now are much, much deeper than just QB. We were relatively weak on both the offensive and defensive lines in 2017, and I don't see that changing overnight. And those issues may be as serious or more so than the QB issue. Combined with the QB issue, it makes a Georgia win in 2018 highly likely, if not a certainty, unless they fall apart early in the season, or fumble the game away to us.
     
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  19. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    I was not referring to Cam Newton although he was a transfer who won Auburn a national championship.

    I was referring to their starting QB transfer who just lead Auburn to victories over Bama and UGA. We recruited that QB also.

    Both contributed well in year 1. Thanks for disproving your first 2 points.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  20. jhbyrd

    jhbyrd GC Hall of Fame

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    As UF learned last year the summer suspensions can be deadly for your roster as can injuries so you are wrong again claiming it is a certainty at this point in time.

    Only an ill informed person would think that a UF DL full of 5 star and 4 star players is weak. 4 star Redshirt freshman Zachary Carter is making his debut and hiding in the shadows behind disrupter J Polite.

    The UF OL which is loaded with upperclassmen will likely prove you wrong also but we have to see how injuries play out for this UF OL.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018