Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Jan 20, 2020.
I wonder how long the markets will go down because if this stuff. Dow has dropped almost 13% now.
I sincerely hopes it proves to be warranted and we do not look back upon it with disdain as hospital wards are overflowing and elderly loved ones are dying from this virus.
The Coronavirus Shows Why the U.S. Must Make Pandemic Disease a National Security Priority
Trump must be hung for the Corona beer Virus! This can be positive on two fronts...no hanging's since 1964 and since Trump won't sign the hanging bill we can make him the example why this bill is so crucial to America's future and secondly Trump will be dead and all cases of TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) will magically disappear and the country will be united in peace for ever
The day traders will short as long as they can get away with it. The thieves that are driving this have made an absolute fortune over the last week. And the dumbass media plays right along
It is their job to react to news like this. I wouldn't expect any different. I don't blame lions for eating zebras and other animals in the wild. It's what they do. You can open a trading account and do the same if you like.
Realistically, the market had froth in it anyway. Especially certain tech stocks which had record multiples or are priced outside the bounds of normal stock valuation. This pullback just barely takes that froth off the top of the market. It probably gets some people opportunities here and there on certain stocks for those that want to try and be stock pickers. But if a guy shorted something like Tesla at $960 and made bank then kudos to him, I wouldn't call that thievery, I'd call it gambling. Just as going long in Tesla up anywhere in this same $600-900 range would also be gambling. Day-trading basically is gambling unless you are a quant trader with a PhD (and even then it's probably still gambling).
Even something like Apple, which basically drives the market and is generally considered a cash machine, is at a very high multiple even after a 10% pullback. I guess that could be an entry point, but then again in 2018 it had a 25% pullback. Maybe this ends up worse if there are production issues, or if it just returns to a historical multiple. Or maybe you should buy right now. There's hardly certainty either way. Which is why most people shouldn't try and time any of this, at best should just try and find value occasionally (trading for fun) while mostly sticking to low cost index funds.
Coronavirus threatens global economy as experts warn no country will be spared
1st case in Nigeria. Something to watch.
2020 Olympics cancellation being discussed.
What is a 2% fatality rate?
I’ve heard arguments that this is like Ebola, which had a 50% fatality rate. Obviously, that’s an exaggeration.
I’ve also heard arguments that this is “basically just the flu.” That is also false. Most strains of influenza have less than .1% fatality rate, yet we still take vulnerable and immunosuppressed population precautions during those seasons.
The last time we had a 2% fatality rate for a pandemic was the flu of 1918-1920, which had a 2.5% fatality rate. That H1N1 virus killed 50,000,000 people in a less populated world. In the United States, the 1918 pandemic killed 500,000-675,000 people.
At that time, the US population was less than 1/3 what it is now. If this becomes a true pandemic and if the fatality rate holds, the US could be looking at 1,500,000 fatalities, likely with higher percentages among immunosuppressed and vulnerable populations.
This isn’t Ebola, but is isn’t the flu season virus either. It is a very serious prospective pandemic that could lead to a shocking loss of lives.
I have one. But what I do not have is the capital to be able to manipulate.
A large fund, or private individuals with enough $ and a knowledge of program trading algorithms, can short enough stock, that the subsequent reduction in prices will trigger program sell orders on long positions. They get the ball rolling, and the computers do the rest.
No offense but I think your numbers are off the H1N1 in 1918 was more like 10-20% mortality
"The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but it is estimated that 10% to 20% of those who were infected died.....This huge death toll was caused by an extremely high infection rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms. Symptoms in 1918 were so unusual that initially influenza was misdiagnosed as dengue, cholera, or typhoid. One observer wrote, "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred." The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung."
Mortality of the Spanish Flu Pandemic
The 1918 Influenza Pandemic
“The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%.”
1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics
“An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7).”
Edit: I also noticed this rather bizarre unquoted statement in your source: “The unusually severe disease killed between 2% and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%.”
CDC missteps prove costly. This is what happens when you replace professionals with loyalists.
Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus
As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.
The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.
As a result, until Wednesday the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration only allowed those state labs to use the test — a decision with potentially significant consequences. The lack of a reliable test prevented local officials from taking a crucial first step in coping with a possible outbreak — “surveillance testing” of hundreds of people in possible hotspots. Epidemiologists in other countries have used this sort of testing to track the spread of the disease before large numbers of people turn up at hospitals.
“We’re weeks behind because we had this problem,” said Scott Becker, chief executive officer of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents 100 state and local public laboratories. “We’re usually up-front and center and ready.”
The cruise ship situation was completely mishandled ....705 people more people got the virus while in their half-ass attempt to quarantine and 5 have died so far.
Coronavirus news and live updates: Markets take historic tumble as virus spreads - CNN
There are lots of variations on the true mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish flu, not good record keeping makes it hard to know for sure..
"The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). It is estimated that approximately 30 million were killed by the flu, or about 1.7% of the world population died. Other estimates range from 17 to 55 million fatalities."
The most recent info from the CDC that I saw said Covid19 had about half the mortality of the seasonal flu. Looking for that link.
Spanish flu - Wikipedia
I have read reports and seen documentaries that quote the 10-20% mortality rate.
I haven't seen anything reputable source saying that Covid19 is twice as deadly as the season flu. I have seen may hype sites running with that.
Coronavirus has now killed 6 passengers on quarantined ship, including 1st British patient to die from infection
Meanwhile, Administration officials refuse to admit to Congress that it’s not a hoax. This is where we are with our counterfactual Administration.
If the regular flu had a 2% mortality rate, we would see 200,000 to 1 million deaths per year rather than the 10,000 to 50,000 we actually see. So if coronavirus infects as many people as flu normally does (10 to 50 million per year), we will be looking at a much higher number of deaths. But keep comparing it to the common cold and normal flu, Trumpers.
I think it’s going to end up higher than 2%. The John Hopskin GIS has the recovery to death ratio at about 8%. I’d guess that number will come down some, as it probably take longer to declare someone recovered than it does for weakened people to die, but still, I think it ends up higher than 2%.
What reasons do they give for believing it is a hoax? I mean, is China and the other countries in on it just to discredit our POTUS?