Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.
Coronavirus Gets Real | The American Conservative
A major difference: Coronavirus has a much higher R0 than Ebola. That is why it is spreading at the speed that it has to multiple locations around the world. Ebola is unlikely to cause a pandemic in an advanced economy because its R0 in such a place is incredibly low (proper disposal of waste lowers the R0 even further).
We are clearly not at panic levels in the US. However, the concern is with the R0 as high as it is, if you get enough cases to which you should theoretically start to panic, it is way too late.
How is the treatment different than the flu for healthy people?
Ebola was spread by liquid exchange through physical contact. Not a great way for a virus to become a pandemic. Corona is believed to be airborne, and new cases are popping up all over the globe. In fact, there are now more new cases outside of China being reported on daily basis than inside. This includes not only Brazil, which means there will be likely more cases in S. America, but also in the US, as well as a US Serviceman in S. Korea. If anyone that serviceman came into contact comes to the US, there is a risk of more contamination, and more cases in the US.
Airborne viruses are very difficult to contain. And unless we are going to restrict all incoming air travel from places with known cases, or all international travel, it's likely that there will be more cases here in the US.
Honestly, if we can get lightning strikes under control first, we'll be a lot better off.
There's nothing in there about Democrats claiming it was too soon.
Or the H1N1 scare in 2009. My thoughts exactly. In all cases mentioned, the CDC was probably a little more alarmist than it needed to be, but their only concern is the spread of disease. And the White House was probably understating the threat due to other considerations (economic, security) that the CDC does not (and frankly should not) concern itself with. Personally, I always err on the side of caution in circumstances like these, and that means assuming the CDC is correct. I would rather take a short-term economic hit by being overly cautious. If Corona hits us the way it has China, then the economy won't be very high on our list of concerns anyway.
Politicized in what way? I remember righties freaking out because we brought a couple patients to the U.S. for treatment. Even though their fears were based on unscientific claims.
I don’t see anyone suggesting any crazy overreaction with this yet, and really there may be nothing that can really be done with an airborne and easily transmittable virus. People here wont accept a total shutdown like was imposed in China, and once it spreads into Europe it can’t really be “contained” anyway. Just have to hope it doesn’t go pandemic before the weather heats up.
You don't need liberals to create a crises when the rest of the world is cancelling sporting events, papal masses, closing airports, disrupting supply lines, etc. Seems like the "non-existent crises," is pretty existent. To everyone except the one person who perceives not medical, but political danger to himself. The media doesn't need to beat the drum on this one, pandemic/epidemics do it all by themselves.
Yeah, I don't live in "the rest of the world". I live in America and we ain't cancelling games and closing down airports because we have 24 people infected who are all under quarantine. If that number happens to multiply exponentially, maybe then you'll start to see some of that here, but I really don't care what they're doing in Italy.
I have said since day 1 that this won’t be a pandemic in the traditional sense and that the worst case predictions are silly at best and dangerous at worst. But the virus is just now starting to spread in western countries, let’s see where we are in April or May before declaring victory.
Just as an example:
Flight Attendant Diagnosed With Coronavirus Might Have Worked Flights Out of LAX, Reports Say
Michael Lewis The Fifth Risk, is what comes to mind.
Its in the same family of viruses (I think) as the flu or colds but is genetically different and it has never been found in humans before. It is speculated to have come from bats in Brazil. Therefore humans have no natural immunity or reservoir of people with acquired immunity to protect the rest of us, so it will have its way. Usually when a virus is introduced to a naive population it spreads quickly. We are told most healthy people will be OK and get over it. That leaves infants, the elderly, people with compromised health conditions, people with suppressed immune systems, and really who knows who else right now.
I just heard on the radio this evening that kids/infants seem to be fairing fine. It's the elderly and sick...
The United States doesn't exist in a vacuum. Just ask Wall St.
My GOD man, the CDC is not “liberals”
You live in Trump’s fantasy land. The CDC warned of an impending pandemic and Trump is trying to downplay it because of the effect on the economy.
wasn’t funny the first time.
Thanks for the recommend. I just ordered it. I very much like the approach Lewis took in the others of his books I have read - Money Ball, The big Short and Liar's Poker. He deals in facts.
A couple of reviews from Amazon:
I learned a great deal of encouraging deeds by our federal employees that I’d not previously heard a thing about. It also provides insight into mistakes or oversights of the Obama Administration.
A hymn to the 'deep state,' which is revealed as nothing more than people who know what they're talking about.”
So, what is the "Fifth Risk?"
Accidents with nuclear weapons and climate change top the list of five. They're the first risk. The second and third are a potential attack by North Korea and the threat that Iran might develop a nuclear weapon now that Trump has pulled out of the Iran treaty. MacWilliams identifies the fourth as the fragility of our electrical grid. What, then, is the Fifth Risk? "'Project management,'" MacWilliams says. To illustrate, he pointed Lewis to the decommissioned plutonium production facility at Hanford, Washington, which the author toured. There, a local official explained that "'There are Fukushima-level events that could happen at any time.'" Without competent and attentive management, anything could happen there. We take for granted that our government protects us from such threats. But are we safe to do so under this Administration? Who might be appointed to manage the 200 square miles of nuclear risks at Hanford?
"There is an upside to ignorance"
Lewis notes that "There is another way to think of John MacWilliams's fifth risk: the risk a society runs when it falls into the habit of responding to long-term risks with short-term solutions." This is exactly what the Trump Administration hopes to do with Hanford, by cutting its budget—and with so many other government programs. "There is an upside to ignorance, and a downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview." And isn't this just exactly what's going on throughout the federal government under Donald Trump?
Not that I would find it surprising for an attendant to contract the virus but I do wonder if they’re getting false positives with the Coronavirus tests.
At least some adult somewhere told Trump to put an adult in charge. Hopefully he stays out of Pence's way. No way is Trump qualified or capable of leading a meaningful policy and developing the medical contingency plans and infrastructure to address this when it does happen here.