Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.
U.S. 'wasted' months before preparing for virus pandemic
. How many times can a man turn his head and pretend that he just doesn’t see.... And .....
How many deaths does it take time he knows that too many people have died? BLOWIN' IN THE WIND Chords by Bob Dylan - E-Chords.com. How many people are you willing to see sick and dead? How many would it be under your vision? What does the epidemiological evidence you are relying on show? And what would be the effect on the economy?
Blue is all imports from China, Orange is imports through LA.
By the way, to the cost benefit analysis...
I mentioned it weeks ago, but for the future, one of the takeaways from this mess should be a set emergency plan that defines the level of shut down based on expected loss. If a virus is expected to threaten x percent of the population, this is our expected societal response, at rate y we do this, etc. it would not only provide clarity, but allow pandemic insurance to enter the picture, since the parameters would be defined.
And we damn sure better have an emergency federal ventilator supply, as well as masks, personal protective gear, and a plan for testing - both in getting tests created and in the logistics of pushing it out. if we aren’t prepared for next time (and there will be one with almost absolute certainty), then shame on us.
By the time “the facts come out,” it is too late. To slow a pandemic, you have to act before the final results based in the available facts. So, tell us what predictor you are relying on. Weigh in with the number of sick and dead, the effect on the health care system and the effect of opening on economy under what you propose.
All of these things would've happened without a lockdown. Let's not forget that the NBA cancelled their season well before any lockdown was announced, so don't act like those refs or whoever were just gonna live their lives as if nothing was happening without these lockdowns.
People just don’t get it. The economy was screwed as soon as we didn’t take it seriously in February.
nothing we did after February much mattered. The economy was always going to get blasted. Either through quarantine or millions of sick people.
You need to come up with things like this to keep that funding coming. You have a better chance catching a STD while swimming ALONE than you do coronavirus from the ocean.
2 million people never was, and certainly isn't now, a reasonable or responsible estimate.
Not good enough. How many? Post your predictor? Link? It is not enough that the number is so high that you can’t accept it. Because you are not an epidemiologist and haven’t done a study or run the numbers. That number was derived from a science. Your opinion of what is reasonable is not a basis for public policy.
What do you base this on?
Can you show me the math that describes how a disease with an R0 of 2.2 and a death rate of around 1% (which is the lower end of current death rates) would progress in a population without either an effective testing and isolation regime or a draconian social distancing policy? At what percentage of the population do you think herd immunity would occur?
NBA refs don't do it for extra income. They make damn good salaries. I don't fault the NBA. That was a reasonable choice for them. 600 players sweating and breathing on each other is an excellent way to pass a virus.
I think it is 90% or above.
In order for that many people to die somewhere between a quarter and a third of the population would have to be infected. Don't see it happening.
Put a microphone in front of a kook and this is what you get.
well of course it’s not going to happen now...
So why would a disease with an R0 of 2.2 not spread to a third of the population without an extensive testing and isolation program nor a draconian set of restrictions?
how would you have skinned this cat?
Dr Drew Pinsky Apologizes for Comparing Coronavirus to the Flu: ‘I Got It Wrong’ (Video)
Media personality Dr. Drew Pinsky apologized Saturday for his past comments comparing coronavirus to influenza, or the flu, saying he “got it wrong.”
“My early comments about equating coronavirus with influenza were wrong. They were incorrect. I was part of a chorus that was saying that. And we were wrong. And I want to apologize for that,” Dr. Drew said in a Periscope video shared to his Twitter Saturday. “I wish I had gotten it right, but I got it wrong.”
Pinsky was criticized for a video dating back to early February that is circulating the web in which he downplays the coronavirus, saying it was a “press induced panic” and that it was far less dangerous than the flu. He also says in the video that your chances of dying from coronavirus are lower than being “hit by an asteroid.”
“What I also said was follow the CDC’s recommendation; follow Dr. Fauci’s recommendation. They will keep us safe. And I thought that when the government started taking more aggressive measures, we should all sign on. We have a collective responsibility to do so. I’m doing what I’m supposed to do. I wear a mask outside now. And it’s paid dividends. It is improving. It is flattening the curve. And I’m delighted to be a part of that. I’m glad to be a part of that.”
Dr Drew Pinksy Apologizes for Comparing Coronavirus to the Flu (Video)