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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    I've posted the CDC link several times. But if that isn't good enough for you, here's a study from the American Association of Pediatrics. It looked at COVID-19 deaths 0-21 years old for a period of time. 112 in total, including 16 that had no underlying conditions. Also looks at prevalence of MIS-C and found a greater risk in kids who had COVID. Likely a statistically greater risk than getting myocarditis, which the Israeli study showed was 5 in 100,000 for the vaccine.

    So I ask again. How many kids' lives saved from the vaccine make it worth giving? How many adult lives saved from slowing the spread too?
     
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  2. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    It doesn't "only last 6 months". It lasts at least that long. Perhaps longer. We don't know yet.
     
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  3. ncargat1

    ncargat1 VIP Member

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    I am going to amend this. There is now published data, and I will have to find it again, confirming that protection against severe disease, hospitalization, death for vaccinated groups, as well as those previously infected, extends out to at least 12 months....and very likely much, much longer for all groups.

    People are arguing absolutes, but I honestly thing that the "lie of omission" and the actual truth of the situation is this:

    We are going to find that this disease is only a real threat for the old and immunocompromised. However, until we have therapeudics where we can treat people at the doctor's office, even that number of people + unvaccinated who are not in great health will overwhelm hospitals and medical facilities in short term spurts and in highly regionalized outbreaks.

    I honestly believe that the pushing of boosters that medical experts are pretty sure are unnecessary for most average people is a way of "stealing" another 3-6 months of sterilizing immunity against any infection vs no boosters and we get infected but do not develop severe disease, and thus over burden (again, locally and for a shorter time) our medical facilities.

    Based on comments from my one and only friend at UNC-Chappel Hill who works in this area, I really believe that once the oral anti-virals are proliferrated, the MABs are authorized for sub-cutaneous adminstration and most of the early detection and treatment can be moved to local pharmacy and doctor's offices.....a positive test result can trigger a nearly automatic perscription or injection.....much of the emphasis on vaccines as a routine part of our lives will diminish.

    People like me, who were hyper tensive, pre-diabetic by 50 due to poor eating mostly, but now nearly 60 will proably still be a candidate for a yearly booster. I have lost 50 lbs down to my high school weight and work out and eat much better with a metformin controlled A1C at 5.5-5.8 (down from nearly 7), so even in my case my doctor felt like it was 50/50 on this recently offered 3rd shot, but I took it to try to ensure I remain out of the hospital, even if it is just another 3-6 months.

    But going forward, I feel like an annual booster will be something like the Shingles vaccine, where they start recommending it at some age (55?) or even the pneumonia vaccine where they suggest at 50-55 unless you have certain conditions.

    SARS-CoV-2 is not ever going away, but once we have the infrastructure, therapeudics, vaccines and most importantly benefit of a few years of study in the bag, we probably pretty quickly stop discussing this as a daily life topic.

    Just my $0.02.
     
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  4. ncargat1

    ncargat1 VIP Member

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    This is still due to our lack of following the science. At this point, we know with pretty high certainty what Ct value correlates to "infectious" vs "infected". With better testing and more rigorous adherance to the science, we could stop things like this more than likely.

    In NY, many school districts are ending the policy of automatic isolation for close contacts if a student tests positive. They are moving to a European based model of using rapid antigen tests 2x per week. You pass, you are in class. Only if you fail do you go home and isolate until a PCR result. These tests have been proven with 95+% accuracy to catch "infectious" people. And frankly, if you are "infected" but not "infectious", you are safe to be around anyway most likely anyway.

    This is our path forward and people need to start understanding this.
     
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  5. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    If it last at least that long why are boosters recommended starting at 6 months? Just a wild guess by Pfizer/CDC?
     
  6. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    You still won't post that Covid had nothing to do with 35% of those deaths, that i've posted countless times on this thread. You have no idea if the vaccine would protect any child's life. Only kids with pre-existing conditions should get the vaccine. You continue to fear monger, I'll continue to post data showing you are wrong.
     
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  7. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Here is a good working paper on Masks. Very fair analysis and shows that issues that saying masks work X amount of time when they don't erodes trust in our leaders.

    https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2021-11/working-paper-64.pdf

    "We reviewed the mechanistic, observational, and clinical evidence relevant to the use of cloth face masks in community settings to limit the spread of respiratory infections, and in particular the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In each area, we found existing evidence inadequate to demonstrate clear benefit (or harm)."
     
  8. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Even if I accept your 35% number you provided without proof, that's still about 70 kids from the linked study alone. And 11 without any preexisting conditions, again, from the study alone that died.
     
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  9. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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  10. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    So where in the TRIAL data does it show that the vaccine will protect children from dying or being hospitalized?
     
  11. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Asymptomatic supports that the vaccines work. It explains the differing reported cases in the study of vax versus unvaxxed. The virus is out there. So, in a room with vaxxed and unvaxxed people, it will spread equally to all. But, fewer backed getting sick.
     
  12. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Understand all that. Since other team players are vaccinated also this should mean no one should sit out unless they have symptoms. Much more significant chance of serious injury by playing football at that age than from covid. Not even in the same ballpark actually.
     
  13. Swamplizard

    Swamplizard VIP Member

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    Florida
  14. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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  15. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Real world data has shown the vaccine reduces deaths at all ages over 16. Why would the vaccine in kids be any different? Here's a study showing a reduction of COVID hospitalizations in 12 to 15 year olds after vaccination. Unless there's any data or reason why the vaccine will work any different in younger kids, it's a very safe assumption the vaccine will save lives. Especially when you consider the reduction in community spread.
     
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  16. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    They are giving a lower dose. So we don't know. Stupid to make assumptions. The funny part is saying it's emergency authorization for the vaccine that showed ZERO difference in vaccine and placebo group for both hospitalizations and deaths. Let me know when the FDA fully authorizes it, until then, my kids won't be getting it. And most parents agree with me on kids under 11.
     
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  17. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]
     
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  18. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    The lower dose for kids under 12 showed lesser side effects. But results in terms of immune system response were the same. It's why the studies can say there is a 90% effectiveness for the vaccine at 1/3 dosage level for kids 5-11. If the immune response in kids from the vaccine equals the immune response for all other age groups, and all other age groups have seen a reduction in hospitalizations and deaths after receiving the vaccine, it's a safe assumption the same thing will happen in the kids. It would be quite a shock if the vaccine reacts completely different in kids as it does for all other age groups.

    The vaccine trials also showed the same number of myocarditis cases between the placebo group and the vaccine group, which is also zero. Yet, you are afraid to get the vaccine for your kids because of myocarditis. Which should surprise anyone, since the Phase III trial was just under 2,400 (normal size for Phase III trial), and myocarditis rates for the vaccine according to the Israeli study is 1 in over 20,000 kids.

    I've stated it before. The vaccine for kids 5-11 will only provide a nominal benefit for the kids themselves. But even if 1 kid is saved, is that not worth it? And the number saved will likely be higher than 1. But the bigger benefit to vaccinating kids is the community benefit of slowing the spread. The less people who act as vectors to spread the virus the better. And with that said, I got my third booster scheduled a week from today.
     
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  19. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Nope. You have zero idea if there are long term side affects from the vaccine. You can BS everyone and say you know, but you don't. Healthy kids don't die from covid. Move on with life.

    When you show me DATA that shows covid vaccine saves kids from any trial, let me know, otherwise you are making crap up.
     
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  20. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    And we have zero idea what the long term side effects are for catching COVID. Which has greater odds of having long term effects? A virus with a full viral genome? Or a vaccine with just a snipped of the virus mRNA code, plus these inactive ingredients? Given the inactives in the vaccine are organic compounds found elsewhere, the greater risk of long term side effects is catching the full virus. If you could guarantee your kid won't catch COVID, great. But the only way to do that would be full isolation.

    As for your data, give it a few months. We've only just begun to vaccinate kids between 5-11. Not a single one has been vaccinated with one dose for a week, let alone be done with the first set of vaccines, which happens a few weeks after the second dose. If in say 7 months from now, more kids this age per 100,000 unvaxxed have died than same number of kids vaxxed, then we can say we have data the vaccine has saved lives. We have this data for every other age group. And while the difference is small in kids, it still exists. Here's a study showing mortality for each age group, vaccinated vs. unvaccinated, 12 and older, Dec 14, 2020 through July 2021.
     
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