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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. l_boy

    l_boy GC Hall of Fame

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    That doctor is an idiot.
     
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  2. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Your brother needs to get a new doctor. Any credible doctor would tell their patients to get vaccinated. It's not just for the individual, it's for all others the individual could potentially infect.
     
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  3. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    I can read. I know you can too. This article states that at 7-months, reinfection rates are at around 14%. I suggests natural immunity lasts at least 6 months, if not longer, for the majority. We have no idea how much longer natural immunity lasts, especially if those who got infected a year ago received the vaccine.

    This study showed Pfizer to be 92% effective after six months. Also in this study, it said the vaccine was 100% effective from the person receiving a severe case, versus a person getting a second infection, where the symptoms run the gamut from mild to death.

    So yes, I have an idea at about six months for both natural immunity and vaccine. That's because there are published studies for both groups. I read them, and then I formulate my opinions based on the published facts. Vaccines are more effective than natural immunity. There are more people, percentage wise, getting COVID a 2nd time then there are breakthrough cases.

    One reason vaccine immunity may be better than natural is variants. So far, vaccines have been effective against all variants. But in this study, natural immunity did not far well against the S. African variety. All the more reason to get vaccinated. Get vaccinated, reach herd immunity to all current forms of COVID-19, and the virus won't have a chance to mutate into a variant. Hopefully, there never is a variant that is immune to the current vaccines. If that happens, we could be back to square 1.
     
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  4. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    From the study you posted:

    “This time period is the minimum probable effect because seroconversions were not included. This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals.”

    A little advice for you; at least read what you post. You are making crap up. It’s not 6 months like you said. The study was only 7 months long. You can’t say natural immunity is 6 months. Stopped reading after that BS.
     
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  5. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    I said 7-month study, which showed about 86% immunity. This would be most individuals, but still less than the vaccine. I also included the third link, which suggested immunity may be less effective to new variants. It's possible that natural immunity at seven months is less than the original study because some of the new, more virulent variants may not have been prevalent in study site COVID population.

    Here's what we do know. Vaccines, so far, have shown effective against all variants. 92% at six months for Pfizer. The jury is also still out on how effective natural immunity is against variants. There is a prevailing theory that India originally had a more natural immunity to the first wave because other coronaviruses that are similar gave them a sort of natural immunity. But then they got hit with a different variant and the story is much, much different.

    Last, we also know vaccine immunity is stronger than natural immunity, including all variants. If we want to be sure to reach herd immunity. the best course of action is to get vaccinated. Period. End of story. It's why the CDC and doctors agree that unless you are showing active signs of COVID and could potentially infect others, it is best to get the vaccine.

    There's still a lot we don't know about COVID-19. What we do know? The mRNA vaccines are most effective against the disease and all variants. We could potentially reach herd immunity at 75% vaccinated. It could be less if we include those with natural immunity, but natural immunity isn't as effective as the vaccine, meaning the only way to be sure to reach herd immunity is through the vaccine. Waiting to get the vaccine because you might not be in much danger is selfish, because it means waiting to reach herd immunity, and it puts everyone else in continued danger, even if they are vaccinated.
     
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  6. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Did your brother’s doctor also alert him to the perils of having his dreams invaded by visions of alien demon sex? I’ve heard from similarly credible doctors that this causes potential health issues.
     
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  7. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Thanks for replying. Wearing masks in a crowded place is probably wise, indoors or outdoors. Of those people wearing masks while in wide open spaces, how did you know they were liberal? Were they politicizing wearing a mask?
     
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  8. littlebluelw

    littlebluelw Premium Member

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    Now that I’m vaccinated I don’t plan to wear one except while mowing the yard.
     
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  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Let’s look at real world results. Israel has vaccinated approximately 60% of its population and has seen Covid numbers drop significantly. The UK has vaccinated 52% of the population and has seen Covid drop a ton also. You keep quoting scientists who most of whom have been woefully wrong in their estimations and modeling. Stop for a second and use your brain. Look at places that were hard hit like CA. They are hitting herd immunity. You can keep wanting to vaccinate kids and out their lives in danger for zero reason. I’ll keep my kids from getting an unapproved vaccine. There is literally no emergency for kids. When one thinks 2,200 kids is enough to stick their kid with a trial vaccine that tells me all I need to know about that person.
     
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  10. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Israel has over 1,400 cases reported the last 14 days, even with close to 60% vaccinated. That represents .085% of the population. If the US gets to 60% vaccination rate, that translates into over 275,000 people. That's thousands more dead and thousands of more long haulers. All avoidable if we reach herd immunity.

    And my kids? Both honor students. My daughter wants the vaccine and is happy she likely won't have to wait until her 16th birthday before getting the b first shot. She wants to hug her grandparents and feel 99% secure she won't be the vector that transmits the virus.

    Yes, cases are falling as more get vaccinated. That's because the vaccine is safe and effective. But 70% vaccinated is still the magic number. That's when we begin to reach herd immunity. That's when it becomes safer for all and the risk drops close to zero.

    You sound like the anti-vaxxers who don't want their kid to get the measles shot because over 99% of kids recover with no lasting effect. But thing is, less kids vaccinated, no herd immunity, and then everyone is at risk. That same Grandmother was having health issues a few years ago, and had to cancel a trip with us to Disneyland after a measles outbreak, because at the time, if she got the measles, it would've been a death sentence. She is better now and got the COVID shot. But she missed out on a good time because of selfish anti-vaxxers. You fit that description. COVID isn't a big scare for your kids, so who cares about herd immunity and the rest of the population?
     
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  11. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    my kid wants a car but that doesn’t mean I am going to give it to him. It’s a parents job to make the tough decisions. I hope that vaccine is safe for all the parents who are willing to give it to their kids. I’ll let other kids be the drug trials, not my own kids. I’ll wait until it’s fully fda approved, and not before. Luckily i am in Florida so I don’t have to worry about a terrible Governor forcing kids to gets a vaccine to go to school.
     
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  12. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    I hike every weekend and haven’t worn one in a year, outside of just a few really crowded hikes. And I support mask wearing generally, but I also support science. The odds of transmission outdoors are really low, and without extended contact they are close to zero.
    I have passed 75 people on some hikes and not worried one iota about getting infected. The only thing I am careful about is to not walk in someone’s slip stream for too long. Sometimes someone can have a similar pace to you and you can be behind them for a while breathing all of their air as you continually walk through it. So I might slow down for a minute to get out of that, and wi will generally clear the trail to let people by coming the other way just out of treaty in case they are concerned, but other than that I truly don’t think about it, in fact it’s the best thing about hiking, I can just have a normal experience.
    Not wholly relevant to your post, but so be it :).
     
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  13. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I'm not going to judge anyone who choses to wait until the vaccines have full FDA approval, I might not agree with their decision, but I respect their right to make that decision.
     
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  14. jeffbrig

    jeffbrig GC Hall of Fame

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    Full approval is based on 2 things: safety, and proven long term efficacy. Safety is/was proven to obtain the EUA, and has since been further validated by the millions that have taken the vaccine. Proving long term efficacy, on the other hand, is rather tricky to accelerate. Hence, vaccines rolling out under the EUA rather than full approval. These is absolutely no reason to argue against vaccine safety based on the current EUA status.
     
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  15. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Well, according to VAER’s reports, which are at least a month behind in reporting, the Covid vaccine is 20 times more likely to end in a hospitalization and 79 times more likely to end in death. Now these numbers are small, but they are also very behind. Anyone over 18 should get the vaccine. I’ve said that repeatedly. Kids have no reason whatsoever to get the vaccine. Anyone saying it’s safe for kids has no idea. I also have no idea if it’s dangerous or not, but I’m not willing to risk my kids health on a vaccine that is close to zero threat to them without being authorized.
     
  16. flgator2

    flgator2 GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm not going judge anyone, if you want to wait a year to go out to eat, wear mask, stay home etc fine. But I also haven't been nor plan to get vaccinated and very rarely ear a mask
     
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  17. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Arent her grandparents vaccinated? The chances your daughter has Covid or is a carrier if she has no symptoms are very low. Couple that with the vaccinated grandparents and the risk is no more...if not less..than any other virus in our society.

    If they are vaxed...let her hug them if they are comfortable.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2021 at 9:11 AM
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  18. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    The grandparents are vaccinated. But there are breakthrough cases, and even the fully vaccinated can still get COVID. If my daughter is fully vaccinated, it cuts down her chance of being a carrier by over 90%.

    And that's the thing. If you are fully vaccinated and part of the immunity herd, you cut the risk of carrying the disease and spreading it to others. If enough people are vaccinated, 70% with immunity, it becomes difficult for the virus to find someone it can infect, because such a high percentage is immune. Reach herd immunity, and even those susceptible to a breakthrough case is safe.

    But until then, there is risk for all. For those not vaccinated, if they are exposed to COVID-19, they run a much higher risk of getting sick and spreading the virus to others. With COVID, a person can be communicable for two weeks before showing symptoms. If a person is younger, those symptoms could be minor, and he/she could be spreading COVID without knowing it, just thinking it's a cold or allergies.

    The only way to be truly safer is herd immunity. The only way we know for sure we've reached it is about 75% of the total population getting vaccinated.
     
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  19. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Cmon man. Stop saying the same stuff over and over.
    We all know the facts.

    For starters. Yes, your child is 90% less likely to contract it with the vax. But that is 90% of what is already a very low chance to start with. Currently only about 2% of Americans have the virus.

    I have supported every step, from shutdowns to masks etc. But to say that vaccinated grandparents cant hug a kid that the data shows is very unlikely to even have covid, (2%) much less transfer it to vaccinated grandparents is going too far imo.

    So your kid can't hug her grandparents unless their is absolutely no risk? I mean when will zero risk happen? My (vaccinated) parents would disown me if I kept my kids away ;).

    Telling Americans to get vaccinated because they put VACCINATED people at risk is a losing strategy.

    Again. There is less than a 15% chance your kid will get covid. (+/- depending on the data you are looking at)
    BUT...only a 2% chance they currently have it.
    Then there is what, a 5% chance chance that a vaxed person might contract it?

    So what % chance does that leave? Basically nada. Zip.

    Now add in the fact that your kids could still mask up during said hug.

    The idea that kids cant hug grandparents under that scenario is silly. Even for a more liberal standard....and again, I have sided much more with the left during this thing then many on the right.

    But C'mon man.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2021 at 9:50 AM
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  20. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Really good read here:

    As US nears vaccine tipping point, dramatic decrease in COVID-19
    cases could come without herd immunity, some experts say


    SAN FRANCISCO – It may not take true "herd immunity" to see a dramatic drop in COVID-19 cases. Some researchers say another 30 million to 40 million first shots could be enough for the United States to reach a vaccine tipping point and containment of the disease caused by the coronavirus.
    ...
    "When you’re at 50% or so, you have a significant amount of downward pressure on cases. Half the people who are being potentially exposed to the virus no longer can get it. That’s a very big deal," said Dr. Robert Wachter, professor and chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.
    ...
    Those trends keep working their way down the population as more people get vaccinated, said Vermont Department of Financial Regulation Commissioner Michael Pieciak, the state's lead on state COVID-19 modeling and data. Vermont has the nation's third-highest vaccination rate at 56%.

    "COVID case rates are down 60% over the month of April," Pieciak said, even among younger, less-vaccinated people.



    As US nears vaccine tipping point, dramatic decrease in COVID-19 cases could come without herd immunity, some experts say
     
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