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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

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  1. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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  2. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]

    It's almost as if people are leaving the lockdown states...
     
  3. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Source?
     
  4. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Good point about teachers and in-person classes. Just because teachers are getting it doesn’t mean they are acquiring it in their schools. It would be useful to know if a significantly higher percentage of teachers are acquiring the virus than other professions.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  5. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    From your link:

    The only way to safely launch in-person learning is for the broader community to strictly follow social distancing measures, particularly steps like wearing masks, which will reduce the risk to children and older residents, the agency said.

    The report offered no insight on the risks to school teachers and staff members, as there is no information gathering nationwide on their infection rates.
    Did you actually read the entire article, or just the headline? The risks to the adults at school was not studied. Trying to find annual teacher deaths in a non-COVID year is impossible, because the data doesn't exist. But we do know there have been hundreds of teachers who died from COVID, and who knows how many more parents and guardians who caught COVID because a kid brought it home from school.

    The article also states that schools should only be open when the community spread is at safer levels. Keeping schools open doesn't increase the community spread rate, but it also doesn't decrease the spread rate. When spread rates are high, having schools open and people congregate in indoors spaces, the virus will do what it does, and spread.

    In a community with say a 5% positive test rate, the chances of an infected child and/or teacher being in class is low, and having schools open won't increase the 5% infection rate. But in a community with a 15% positive test rate, the chances of people in school being infected is 3X higher, and while keeping schools open won't cause the rates to go above 15%, having schools open will result in more people getting COVID from being at school.

    Closing schools should be one of the last mitigating effects a community takes, and reopening should be at the top of the list when COVID rates are under control. But when community spread is out of control, closing schools and keeping everyone as distant as possible should be the norm. Your article states nothing to the contrary.
     
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  6. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    I think you know the answer. I would like my youngest to go back to in person, but since we killed or sickened so many teachers, that ain't gonna happen. Maybe 95 envisions just stacking the kids in a room like cordwood for 8 hours a day and unlocking the doors when the final bell rings.
     
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  7. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Because you don’t have the data doesn’t mean you can just make up a bunch of crap. Show me where there is a study showing teachers are getting covid at a higher rate than anyone else. I’ve already provided data saying teachers aren’t getting at higher levels than other people in the US. This is over. Until you provide data backing it up you are spouting nothing but BS.
     
  8. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Show me where teachers are getting covid at a higher rate than anyone else. I’ll wait...

    The rest is pure BS from the coronabro’s.
     
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  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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  10. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Coronabro.
    The alt right really does suck at humor. Covidiots is a much funnier and appropriate term.

    COVID cases among teachers appear to be rising. What does that mean?

    Links in the article point to the study from Brown showing teacher rate is actually higher than community which wasn’t the case in November.
    Data like this will always be muddied due to a hundred reasons but here you go.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2021
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  11. fda92045

    fda92045 GC Hall of Fame

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    The irony is that they try to demean people who care. It is pathetic.
     
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  12. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Thanks for the link.

    I'm not sure which states you are classifying as lockdown states, so I used this map (Coronavirus closures: Map of where US states are tightening restrictions) to see which states are increasing restrictions and which states are lifting restrictions. I will look at the inbound and outbound percentages for health reasons on your link for those states.

    Two states have lifted restrictions, Florida and Missouri.
    Florida- inbound for health 4.4%, outbound for health 7.4%
    Missouri- inbound 1.7%, outbound 3.9%

    A whole host of state with restrictions tightening, I'll go left to right.
    Oregon- inbound 9.2%, outbound 2.2%
    California- inbound 3.9%, outbound 5.4%
    Arizona- inbound 8.3, outbound 10.2
    Montana- inbound NA, outbound 8.7
    Wyoming- inbound 17.7%, outbound NA
    Colorado- inbound 6.6%, outbound 7.7%
    New Mexico- inbound 8.4, outbound 10.3
    Kansas- inbound 6.1%, outbound 4.0%
    Oklahoma- 5.3%, 1.5%
    Arkansas- 3.7%, NA
    Wisconsin- 6.6%, 4.4%
    Illinois- 8.9%, 4.0%
    Tennessee- 5.5%, 3.7%
    Mississippi- NA, 2.6%
    Indiana- 4.5% 3.9%
    West Virginia- 15%, 3.7%
    New York- 6.2%, 5.2%
    Maryland- 2.5%, 4.3%
    Connecticut- 10%, 8.2%
    Virginia- 11.3%, 4.8%
    New Hampshire- 13.5%, 10.6%
    Massachusetts- 6%, 4.9%

    Pretty mixed bag. I don't see any evidence that restriction status has any affect on moving in or out.
     
  13. NavyGator93

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  14. gators81

    gators81 Premium Member

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    From the Link which is just one commercial moving van companies data, not exactly an extensive nationwide study:

    “According to the study, which tracks the company’s exclusive data for customers’ 2020 state-to-state migration patterns, Idaho was the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration (70%) among states experiencing more than 250 moves* with United Van Lines for the second consecutive year. Topping the list of outbound locations was New Jersey (70% outbound), which has held the spot for the past three years.”

    Second consecutive year for Idaho topping one list while NJ topped the other for the third straight. But yeah, let’s blame Covid...
     
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  15. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    wha? endogeneity fallacy. it's like giving some cops bullet proof vests & then saying show me where cops with bullet proof vests are dying at a higher rate.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2021
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  16. gators81

    gators81 Premium Member

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    I wish there was a search function within a thread for phrases. I would love to know how many times, “Did you even read your own link?” Has been used here.
     
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  17. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep and forced school closures
     
  18. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Well, I’d consider CA, NY, NJ, PA and IL has lockdown states. Not sure there’s much argument on those.
     
  19. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    CA is minus, NY is plus, NJ is plus (5.9 inbound, 4.2 outbound), PA is minus (5.3 inbound, 5.9 outbound), and IL is plus. Not seeing any pattern here for your lockdown states.
     
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  20. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    I’ve seen conflicting data on that.

    https://moneywise.com/a/americans-abandon-states

    4 of the top 5 are lockdown states.
     
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