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Coronavirus in Florida

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    You have to use CDCs excess death method since we didn’t really test H1N1. Lots of skeptics of the method. Some say it’s too high each year while others says its to low each year.
     
  2. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    People who were sick enough to be hospitalized were tested to determine if they had H1N1 or another strain of the flu. Combining that data with the prevalence numbers from earlier in the outbreak let us make pretty good estimates of how many people got it.

    Completely made up numbers as an example:
    First three months- we test everyone who goes to the doctor with flu symptoms, 5% of the people who have flu symptoms have H1N1. We further learn that 20% of the people who are hospitalized with flue symptoms have H1N1. These ratios stay consistent from month to month. Next three months- we only test people who are hospitalized, 20% of the people who are hospitalized with flu symptoms have H1N1. We can pretty safely predict that about 5% of the people who go to their doctor with flu symptoms have H1N1, even though we didn't test them specifically for that. The statistics and data collection are a lot more complicated than that, but we have spent a ton of resources on our flu reporting system since the early 2000s, and it works pretty well.
     
  3. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    New resident cases: 7587 (estimated 8831 based on testing percentage and the estimated drop in testing number)
    New hospitalizations: 558 (still below peak on 7-day average)
    New deaths: 120 (less than half of last Thursday's report)

    New positive test percentage (Hopkins method): .180 (7-day average down to .174)
    New positive test percentage (page 2 state report): .0834

    http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_20200806.pdf

    Factoring in the estimated impact on the reduced testing, we're still looking at the 7-day average for new cases being down around 8600 (~27% lower than our peak nearly 3 weeks ago)

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  4. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Last week+ we've been slowly dropping in active COVID hospitalizations:

    7/28: ~8900
    7/29: ~8800
    7/30: ~8600
    7/31: ~8400
    8/1: ~7900
    8/2: ~8000
    8/3: ~7900
    8/4: ~7900
    8/5: ~7800
    8/6: ~7300 (hopefully this reflects well in tomorrow's new hospitalization numbers)

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  5. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Again, we have a monitoring system for flu that is not reliant on individual tests. The methods utilized for monitoring flu spread is considered more accurate than individual testing, which is prone to dramatic undercounting.

    Again, it is a moderate level spread rate disease and the world didn't shut down, so lots more people got it. That was the appropriate for that disease.

    We have similar estimates to the spread in the US that they had for the world.

    2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    We had between 43.4 million and 89.3 million cases of H1N1 according to our flu monitoring techniques.

    The spread rate was similar to the lower estimates for Covid's spread rate. However, the overall death rate was 0.02% per case based on the point estimates of cases and deaths in the US. That means Covid's death rate is somewhere between 35 and 170 times as high as H1N1's death rate. That is why it makes sense to monitor rather than individually test for H1N1 and why we need to individually test for Covid.

    COVID-19 #CoronaVirus Infographic Datapack — Information is Beautiful
     
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  6. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    over 100k test reported today and your calling that impacted testing??
     
  7. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    I've addressed this above, and I even tagged you in a post that dealt with the details. I'll try to do it again here.

    Yesterday's total test reporting:

    502,739 positives
    3,312,145 negatives

    (from page 1, here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_20200805.pdf )

    Today's total test reporting:

    510,389 positives
    3,346,947 negatives

    (from page 1, here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_20200806.pdf )

    That's an increase of:

    7,650 positives
    34,802 negatives
    ---------------------
    42,452 total new tests

    On page 2, where it indicates 104,144 tests for yesterday, it also expresses this line:

    "People tested on multiple days will be included for each day a new result was received."

    So we know that the page 2 number is inflated if we're looking at new test results. We still have no idea where the FDOH is getting their % from at the bottom of page. If you have an answer for that, there are a lot of people that would be grateful (myself included).

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  8. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    I think your misunderstanding that statement. someone gets tested on a Monday then again on a Thursday. Monday’s test comes back the following Tuesday. That result is counted for that day. Thursday test comes back the following Friday. That result will count in that day results.

    What your claiming has nothing to do with testing capacity. The numbers are decreasing because there is a drop in infection rate and people who need or want testing. That’s what happens as a community gains herd immunity.
     
  9. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Then that second count wouldn't be a new case, would it? How many 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. tests are being included in the 100,000+ test results?

    Florida to shut down all state-run coronavirus testing ahead of expected Tropical Storm Isaias

    We talked about this earlier; the state was reducing their capacity to test regardless of the demand.

    Do you have any explanation for the testing differential numbers that I posted?

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  10. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    What does someone being tested 2-4 times on 2-4 different days have anything to do with overall testing capacity for the state?

    overall available testing has already returned to norma with over 100k TOTAL test done. The number of NEW positives has nothing to do with how many test were performed. I’m simply pointing out your reasoning for the sites of have been shut down a little last week has no sound base.
     
  11. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Absolutely nothing at all. Two separate issues. In the first part, I'm pointing out why the apparent "new tests" are inflated. That 100,000 new tests doesn't jive with the new tests that can be calculated from the page 1 differentials. Agreed?

    The number of new tests dipped as follows:

    On 7/31, the 7-day average of new tests was ~49000

    On 8/1, ~41500 test results were added
    On 8/2, ~31800 test results were added
    On 8/3, ~31700 test results were added
    On 8/4, ~30400 test results were added
    On 8/5, ~42500 test results were added

    If the numbers stay down, then perhaps the state closing their sites didn't matter, but if the numbers creep back up, then we'll see that there was a dip highlighted by the numbers for 8/2, 8/3, and 8/4. agreed?

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
  12. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    'Sorry to burst the magic bubble' says Florida lawmaker of hydroxychloroquine as he battles COVID-19

     
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  13. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    ok im finally on a PC so i can actually look at the reports.

    I see what you are talking about in regards to this section daily change:
    upload_2020-8-6_15-57-4.png

    Not adding up to 100k test for the day. I wonder why that is?

    Has someone from the state ever addressed that?
     

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  14. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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  15. tegator80

    tegator80 GC Hall of Fame

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  16. jmoliver

    jmoliver GC Hall of Fame

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    Meanwhile, Florida's positivity rate over the last 30 days has gone down from 15.44% to 9.95%.
     
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  17. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    ...If the page 2 numbers are accurate. The page 1 data suggests that the 7-day average for positivity is 17.55% (with yesterday's data indicating 19.41%).

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  18. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Good, hopefully it will be down under 5% again and we can start opening up with a low level of risk.
     
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  19. buckeyegator

    buckeyegator Premium Member

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    Unusual, almost 2pm and no daily numbers yet,almost always by noon.
     
  20. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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