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Coronavirus in Florida

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Didn't they stop testing in a big part of the state? Is this a Trumpian belief that the disease doesn't really exist if you don't treat for it and find the cases?
     
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  2. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator

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    Or else we can look for context.

    Big drop in Florida COVID-19 cases Monday may reflect tropical storm, but two-week trend is favorable
     
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  3. jmoliver

    jmoliver GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, they had to close the testing sites for a few days due to the storm. That only reflects in new cases which is a stupid number to start with. The 7-day average (10.88%) for new cases continues to improve although yesterday spiked a little.
     
  4. gator421

    gator421 Premium Member

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    Considering the time it generally takes for results I don’t know if the decline in positives would have much to do with the storm. The numbers seem like good news.
     
  5. pcamera01

    pcamera01 GC Legend

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    I guess that is the way it worked in the past:

    “In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for the H1N1 flu and stop counting individual cases.”

    “The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was 'why waste resources testing for the swine flu when the government has already confirmed that there is an epidemic?'”

    “But Obama, Biden said no more testing, therefore no more reporting on the consequences. This is so damning. This is so damning.”

    Swine Flu Cases Overestimated?
     
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  6. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Mark Levin, who you quoted here and who didn't write that linked piece (although that was also written by a conspiracy theory pushing partisan hack), unsurprisingly didn't really look into the context here. They were utilizing the existing flu estimation systems rather than individual tests after a vaccine existed (it should also be noted that H1N1 was less likely to kill somebody infected with the disease than the standard seasonal flu- so monitoring was more important than isolation and contact tracing). Quite a different context, wouldn't you say?
     
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  7. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    Tampa
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  8. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Experience

    Click on the "Testing" tab at the bottom. Note the confusing array of lab testing information, and then there's this comment:

    Confused about DOH testing data? You're not alone.

    Here's a little write up that talks about the confusion.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  9. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    H1N1 did not overrun hospitals. Btw: find a consistent position please.
     
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  10. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Context and differences don’t matter when sound bites matter. The comparison to H1N1 is absurd.
     
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  11. pcamera01

    pcamera01 GC Legend

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    Sounds absurd or doesn’t fit your narrative. :)
     
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  12. pkaib01

    pkaib01 Premium Member

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    Why the insult? If you want to challenge his assertion, do it by asserting a contradictory position. It's not that hard to debate in good faith.
     
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  13. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Florida Sheriffs Association held convention around the corner from my house. 5 people now tested positive including sheriff of Volusia County. Pictures from the event do not agree with what organizers claim they did to follow CDC guidelines

    Five who attended same sheriffs meeting as Ron DeSantis test positive for coronavirus

    Five who attended same sheriffs meeting as Ron DeSantis test positive for coronavirus
    The governor said he was tested for COVID-19 recently and suggested his test result had been negative.

    Updated 43 minutes ago
    TALLAHASSEE — Five people who attended a Florida Sheriffs Association meeting last week have tested positive for COVID-19, and top state elected officials who appeared at the meeting have received a warning about their potential exposure to the virus.

    The July 27 meeting at a Bonita Springs hotel brought together 60 people from across the state, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, Attorney General Ashley Moody, Corrections Secretary Mark Inch, incoming House Speaker Chris Sprowls and sheriffs from various parts of Florida.

    The association “exceeded” social distancing guidelines at the event, Nanette Schimpf, a spokeswoman for the association, told The News Service of Florida on Monday. Face masks were required at the meeting, each table sat a single person and they were 10 feet apart, and hotel staff cleaned the area every hour, she said.

    Two days later, though, an unidentified attendee notified the Florida Sheriffs Association of a positive test for COVID-19, Schimpf said.By Friday, Inch, Department of Corrections Deputy Secretary Ricky Dixon and Volusia County Sheriff Mike Chitwood all disclosed that they too had tested positive for COVID-19. On Monday, Gilchrist County Sheriff Bobby Schultz tested positive for the deadly respiratory illness.
     
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  14. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    New resident cases: +5408 (estimated 8700 based on testing percentage and the estimated drop in testing number)
    New hospitalizations: 621 (new high, first time over 600)
    New deaths: 225 (slightly higher than last Wednesday report)

    New positive test percentage (Hopkins method): .178 (7-day average down to .175)
    New positive test percentage (page 2 state report): .1089

    http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_20200805.pdf

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  15. jmoliver

    jmoliver GC Hall of Fame

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    I think when the "new deaths" actually find the correct date, we will still be under 100 per day and still trending down. All of the new data will have to looked at since the testing was down for a few days.
     
  16. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Under 100 per day starting when? I think we'll be over 100/day going into August. Current tallies:

    8/1: 77
    8/2: 65
    8/3: 56
    8/4: 19

    I wouldn't be surprised to see the peak 7-day average make it's way into August as well. Currently it's 7/21 (138).

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  17. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    well If we are going by that standard...

    H1N1 Swine Flu No Worse Than Seasonal Flu

    In adults and children over age 6 months, the H1N1 swine flu was no more severe -- and posed no greater risk of serious disease -- than recent seasonal flubugs.

    sounds familiar! Only difference is we will never know what H1N1 did to the older population since it didn’t get tested and over examined like Covid 19 did.
    We already know of cases being labeled a Covid death just because they where positive EVEN if they clearly didn’t die from coronavirus related complications. How many reports just in Florida of those who never got tested but received a positive test result? Or 30 plus labs showing 100% positive results.
     
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  18. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It did get tested initially to understand the disease. They stopped mass individual testing after the initial tests revealed that it was basically a moderate spread, low death rate disease. Dealing with such a disease doesn't require large scale isolation and quarantining systems, which is what requires the individual tests. On the other hand, a moderate death rate, moderate spread rate disease does require individual level tests because we need to isolate cases in order to prevent considerably more death. As such, the proper strategy was to utilize methods like we do for the seasonal flu for H1N1 to estimate the impact of the disease rather than engage in an unimportant but expensive testing regimen. On the other hand, the only way to get a moderate spread/moderate death rate disease is to isolate and trace through individual testing. The failure of early testing for this disease has increased the response necessary to try to get it under control.
     
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  19. surfn1080

    surfn1080 GC Hall of Fame

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    My point is, how do we really know how many got it and how many died from it since we didn’t test it.
    They continued testing it in other parts of the world and showed many many more sick people than Covid 19. Estimates are from 700 million to 1.4 billion for the world but the US lack luster testing of it makes it very unknown.
    The current world meter is 19 million for Covid-19.

    With that said, the flu is something we know more about and many had built up memory cells for older h1n1 like virus. I think Covid is definitely more deadly especially for those over 65. H1N1 was actually more deadly for the young. But it spread was just as bad if not worse than Covid.
     
  20. pkaib01

    pkaib01 Premium Member

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    You could try the "excess deaths" method for the swine flu years. That may ballpark it for you.
     
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