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College Football Preseason Rankings ∙ Updated 20180717

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by mulegator, Feb 16, 2018.

  1. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    Gators most improved?
    No team in the ESPN Football Power Index top 25 improved its ranking from the end of last season to the preseason more than Florida, which bumped up 28 spots to No. 21. Florida is bringing back 19 starters and has had four-year recruiting ranks in the teens. The Gators also are bringing back Feleipe Franks at quarterback, though after last season Florida fans are probably hoping that new head coach Dan Mullen finds another option to start instead.


    Preseason FPI Rankings, FBS Teams
    2018 Football Power Index

    RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
    1 Clemson, ACC 0-0 11.4 - 1.4 20.7 69.2 15 25.8
    2 Alabama, SEC 0-0 10.8 - 1.8 10.0 36.3 28 23.5
    3 Georgia, SEC 0-0 10.9 - 1.8 10.1 41.5 50 23.5
    4 OSU, Big Ten 0-0 10.4 - 2.0 6.5 30.0 41 22.7
    5 Washington, Pac-12 0-0 10.6 - 2.1 7.3 52.4 45 22.6
    6 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 0-0 9.9 - 2.1 8.3 -- 20 21.7
    7 Auburn, SEC 0-0 9.1 - 3.2 0.7 11.5 30 20.4
    8 Oklahoma, Big 12 0-0 10.5 - 2.3 6.5 54.0 24 19.4
    9 Penn State, Big Ten 0-0 9.5 - 2.7 2.2 14.4 32 19.2
    10 Michigan State, Big Ten 0-0 9.6 - 2.7 2.3 14.9 22 19.2
    11 Michigan, Big Ten 0-0 8.4 - 3.7 0.3 7.8 5 18.0
    12 Wisconsin, Big Ten 0-0 9.7 - 2.9 1.3 24.5 65 17.8
    13 Stanford, Pac-12 0-0 8.4 - 3.8 0.3 10.9 12 16.6
    14 Miami, ACC 0-0 9.6 - 3.0 1.2 16.6 46 16.5
    15 Miss St, SEC 0-0 8.4 - 3.7 0.2 3.1 31 15.1
    16 Texas, Big 12 0-0 8.6 - 3.8 0.4 20.3 4 14.4
    17 USC, Pac-12 0-0 8.4 - 4.2 0.1 21.8 13 14.4
    18 FSU, ACC 0-0 7.3 - 4.8 0.0 3.7 2 13.4
    19 Texas A&M, SEC 0-0 7.3 - 4.7 0.0 1.1 29 12.8
    20 Oklahoma State, Big 12 0-0 8.5 - 3.9 0.3 12.7 48 12.8
    RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
    21 Florida, SEC 0-0 8.2 - 3.9 0.1 3.4 54 12.5
    22 VT, ACC 0-0 8.1 - 4.1 0.1 4.8 56 11.9
    23 Oregon, Pac-12 0-0 8.3 - 3.8 0.2 4.0 64 11.8
    24 Iowa, Big Ten 0-0 8.2 - 4.1 0.1 6.2 47 11.1
    25 LSU, SEC 0-0 6.1 - 5.9 0.0 0.3 3 10.4
    26 Cal, Pac-12 0-0 7.7 - 4.4 0.1 3.0 51 10.3
    27 TCU, Big 12 0-0 7.0 - 5.1 0.0 5.4 14 10.0
    28 South Carolina, SEC 0-0 7.2 - 4.9 0.0 1.6 44 9.9
    29 Missouri, SEC 0-0 7.2 - 4.8 0.0 1.0 37 9.8
    30 Duke, ACC 0-0 6.8 - 5.3 0.0 1.4 26 8.9
    31 Georgia Tech, ACC 0-0 6.6 - 5.5 0.0 1.3 21 8.9
    32 Northwestern, Big Ten 0-0 6.4 - 5.7 0.0 1.7 8 8.8
    33 Utah, Pac-12 0-0 7.0 - 5.1 0.0 2.9 19 8.8
    34 Boston College, ACC 0-0 6.7 - 5.3 0.0 0.6 27 8.6
    35 Louisville, ACC 0-0 7.0 - 5.0 0.0 0.9 49 8.4
    36 Boise State, MW 0-0 10.0 - 2.7 2.7 55.7 80 7.6
    37 Texas Tech, Big 12 0-0 6.3 - 5.7 0.0 1.8 18 7.2
    38 Baylor, Big 12 0-0 6.5 - 5.5 0.0 1.6 35 7.0
    39 West Virginia, Big 12 0-0 6.1 - 6.0 0.0 1.6 9 7.0
    40 Iowa State, Big 12 0-0 6.4 - 5.7 0.0 1.8 23 7.0
    RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
    41 Arizona, Pac-12 0-0 7.4 - 4.8 0.0 2.9 63 6.9
    42 UCLA, Pac-12 0-0 5.5 - 6.5 0.0 1.4 1 6.8
    43 NC State, ACC 0-0 6.8 - 5.2 0.0 0.5 52 6.8
    44 Ole Miss, SEC 0-0 6.3 - 5.7 0.0 0.1 43 6.4
    45 Wake Forest, ACC 0-0 6.1 - 5.9 0.0 0.2 38 5.8
    46 Kansas State, Big 12 0-0 5.7 - 6.3 0.0 0.7 17 5.3
    47 UNC, ACC 0-0 6.4 - 5.6 0.0 0.6 53 5.2
    48 Purdue, Big Ten 0-0 5.5 - 6.6 0.0 0.4 6 5.2
    49 Memphis, American 0-0 9.9 - 2.7 2.4 47.5 101 5.1
    50 Arkansas, SEC 0-0 6.1 - 5.9 0.0 0.1 59 4.6
    51 Nebraska, Big Ten 0-0 5.6 - 6.4 0.0 0.1 33 4.2
    52 Arizona State, Pac-12 0-0 5.1 - 6.9 0.0 0.5 10 4.2
    53 Washington St, Pac-12 0-0 6.1 - 5.9 0.0 0.3 61 4.1
    54 Tennessee, SEC 0-0 5.9 - 6.1 0.0 0.0 60 3.9
    55 Pitt, ACC 0-0 4.6 - 7.4 0.0 0.2 7 2.4
    56 Syracuse, ACC 0-0 5.3 - 6.7 0.0 0.1 36 2.2
    57 San Diego State, MW 0-0 8.6 - 3.9 0.1 19.6 91 2.1
    58 UCF, American 0-0 8.6 - 3.9 0.5 24.0 82 2.1
    59 Minnesota, Big Ten 0-0 5.7 - 6.3 0.0 0.2 62 1.9
    60 Kentucky, SEC 0-0 5.2 - 6.8 0.0 0.0 39 1.7
    RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI

    What's FPI again?
    For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:

    • Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
    • Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall and on defense
    • Whether a team has a returning head coach
    • Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons
    [​IMG]

    ESPN Football Power Index - 2018 - ESPN

    Florida 2018 FPI - Gators - ESPN

     
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  2. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    Way Too Early Top 25 (Yep - it's Mark Schlabach's)

    1. Clemson

    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 1
    2017 record: 12-2, 7-1 ACC
    Returning starters: seven offense, eight defense, two special teams



    2. Alabama

    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 2
    2017 record: 13-1, 7-1 SEC
    Returning starters: eight offense, four defense, zero special teams



    3. Georgia
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 5
    2017 record: 13-2, 7-1 SEC
    Returning starters: seven offense, five defense, one special teams



    4. Ohio State

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 3
    2017 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big Ten
    Returning starters: seven offense, five defense, two special teams



    5. Oklahoma

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 4
    2017 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
    Returning starters: seven offense, six defense, two special teams



    6. Washington
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 7
    2017 record: 10-3, 7-2 Pac-12
    Returning starters: eight offense, nine defense, one special teams



    7. Wisconsin

    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 6
    2017 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
    Returning starters: nine offense, five defense, one special teams


    8. Miami
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 8
    2017 record: 10-3, 7-1 ACC
    Returning starters: eight offense, eight defense, one special teams



    9. Michigan State

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 9
    2017 record: 10-3, 7-2 Big Ten
    Returning starters: 10 offense, nine defense, two special teams



    10. Penn State
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 11
    2017 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big Ten
    Returning starters: seven offense, three defense, one special teams



    11. Michigan
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 14
    2017 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
    Returning starters: seven offense, eight defense, two special teams



    12. Stanford

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 12
    2017 record: 9-5, 7-2 Pac-12
    Returning starters: eight offense, nine defense, two special teams



    13. West Virginia

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 10
    2017 record: 7-6, 5-4 Big 12
    Returning starters: seven offense, seven defense, two special teams



    14. Auburn

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 13
    2017 record: 10-4, 7-1 SEC
    Returning starters: six offense, five defense, one special teams



    15. Virginia Tech
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 15
    2017 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
    Returning starters: seven offense, four defense, one special teams



    16. TCU
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 16
    2017 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
    Returning starters: one offense, six defense, two special teams



    17. USC

    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 18
    2017 record: 11-3, 8-1 Pac-12
    Returning starters: seven offense, six defense, two special teams



    18. Florida State

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 22
    2017 record: 7-6, 3-5 ACC
    Returning starters: nine offense, four defense, two special teams



    19. Boise State
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 17
    2017 record: 11-3, 7-1 Mountain West
    Returning starters: seven offense, nine defense, two special teams



    20. Mississippi State
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 19
    2017 record: 9-4, 4-4 SEC
    Returning starters: eight offense, eight defense, one special teams



    21. Notre Dame

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 20
    2017 record: 10-3
    Returning starters: six offense, nine defense, two special teams



    22. UCF
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 21
    2017 record: 13-0, 8-0 AAC
    Returning starters: seven offense, six defense, two special teams



    23. LSU
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 23
    2017 record: 9-4, 6-2 SEC
    Returning starters:four offense, six defense, two special teams



    24. Texas
    [​IMG]
    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 24
    2017 record: 7-6, 5-4
    Returning starters: eight offense, five defense, one special teams



    25. South Carolina

    [​IMG]

    Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 25
    2017 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
    Returning starters: nine offense, four defense, two special teams

    http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...op-post-signing-day-way-too-early-2018-top-25


     
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  3. DawgFanFromAlabam

    DawgFanFromAlabam GC Hall of Fame

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    Gators were ranked #21 by ESPN same time last year. Pre-season rankings are meaningless.
     
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  4. daytonag8r

    daytonag8r VIP Member

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    Seems about right . Didn't see many teams above us I'd be confident we could beat right now .
     
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  5. The_Graygator

    The_Graygator GC Hall of Fame

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    My top 3 would be Bama, UGA, and then Clemson. Don't think UGA will win it all this year but it would not surprise me to watch them win it all in 2019, and probably be there to play for it again in 2020.
     
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  6. DawgFanFromAlabam

    DawgFanFromAlabam GC Hall of Fame

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    That's how a lot of Dawg fans see it too. Getting to the big game last year and then giving Bama all they wanted was a welcome surprise.
     
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  7. The_Graygator

    The_Graygator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah. Once that 2018 class has a year to develop, UGA is going to be extremely, extremely good and hard to beat for the next couple of years after that. They could very well depose Bama as the kings of the SEC. Wouldn't surprise me if they did too.
     
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  8. Gatorchip

    Gatorchip GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe a dozen of them will sell some books or something...
     
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  9. themistocles

    themistocles VIP Member

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    We must remember that last year's preseason 21 was utterly destroyed when the Best 2 offensive weapons were lost for the year before the first game, along with the 2 best new LBs, the best new Oline player, and a couple of others, plus the loss of the leading returning tackler (Harris) and one of only 4 experienced DBs meaning that 2-3 frosh were always starting in the DB, plus the loss of 4 of 5 QBs to injury.

    This is much like the Gator Basketball team losing their only intimidating defensive Big (Egbunu) for 3 successive years around Tournament time, and this year, for the entire season.

    If similar things happen again, we can't expect much in 2018 either. The Gators, for 2 years in a row have been a leader in Lost Starts, which is practically unheard of BAD LUCK! - http://plus.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/AUGUST17/DBAug05.html

    Hopefully, Savage's S&C program will substantially reduce the number of injuries, and also, hopefully, the Football Gods will choose to Smile upon the Mullen Coached Gators for a change.
     
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  10. DawgFanFromAlabam

    DawgFanFromAlabam GC Hall of Fame

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    Just one of the many reasons pre-season rankings are worthless.
     
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  11. JHCRANE14

    JHCRANE14 GC Hall of Fame

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    Tennessee/Florida
    :):):)
     
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  12. Bazza

    Bazza GC Hall of Fame

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    Thanks, Mule - as always - outstanding work!

    We are loaded with talent and I love our new coaching staff. There's no reason we can't compete for a national championship if......we get out QB situation fixed!
     
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  13. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 VIP Member

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    How many starters did UGA lose from last year's team? Sony and Nick are long gone and so are several other important players...

    Yes, their have a great group behind the graduates but I don't know if they can catch lightning in a battle like they did last year. Plus our most incompetent coaching staff in decades is long gone too.

    But the adjustments might be more to defense the opposing team's offense. On that might have wrinkles and set pieces that we're not familiar with.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2018
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  14. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    They will be good but your post points to chemistry and no guarantee they find it. We need to develop our own chemistry obviously.
     
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  15. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    SMH right?
     
  16. The_Graygator

    The_Graygator GC Hall of Fame

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    Refer to my post follwing that one.
     
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  17. What is our preseason offense ranking? I am happy long as we are tied for 1st with the other 120+ teams during preseason and not tied for 101st at the end of the season as we have been for the better part of a decade.
     
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  18. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    Bill Connelly:
    The preseason S&P+ (Strength and Power) projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Here’s how the process works:
    • Recruiting is easy. I create a rating based on these two-year recruiting rankings. The recruiting-based projection makes up about a quarter of the overall S&P+ projection.
    • For returning production, I apply projected changes (based on each team’s returning offensive and defensive production, which are on different scales) to last year’s S&P+ averages. The projection based on returning production accounts for a little more than 50 percent.
    • For recent history, I get a little weird. I found last year that the previous year’s S&P+ ratings — which make up the starting point for the returning production figures — were carrying a little too much weight. So what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history now carries less weight in the overall formulas, under 20 percent.
    Enough talk. Here are the preliminary projected S&P+ rankings for 2018.
    Your projected conference leaders

    You can sort by each category above, but here are the top four projected teams in each conference:

    • SEC: No. 2 Alabama, No. 5 Auburn, No. 6 Georgia, No. 14 Mississippi State
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/msn/...kings-from-ohio-state-through-utep/ar-BBIUPih


     
  19. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    Preliminary projected S&P+ rankings for 2018.

    Projected 2018 S&P+ rankings (as of Feb. 9)


    Rk Team Conf. Recruiting impact Returning production Weighted 5-year Proj. S&P+

    1Ohio StateBig Ten11227.0
    2AlabamaSEC44127.0
    3ClemsonACC123325.4
    4WashingtonPac-121721323.9
    5AuburnSEC116622.4
    6GeorgiaSEC252822.1
    7Notre DameInd1071621.4
    8Penn StateBig Ten8102020.2
    9OklahomaBig 12613719.5
    10MichiganBig Ten1514818.3
    11Michigan StateBig Ten3392218.0
    12WisconsinBig Ten36111117.8
    13Miami-FLACC9161817.4
    14Mississippi StateSEC26152115.7
    15USCPac-12327914.0
    16LSUSEC728514.0
    17Central FloridaAAC6688513.9
    18Florida StateACC548412.3
    19Oklahoma StateBig 1235192911.9
    20StanfordPac-1227231011.9
    21Virginia TechACC24222711.5
    22TCUBig 1231212411.4
    23OregonPac-1218293011.3
    24Texas A&MSEC14361911.0
    25Ole MissSEC30261410.9
    26Boise StateMWC65182610.0
    27TexasBig 121638439.6
    28UtahPac-123230349.4
    29LouisvilleACC2844129.3
    30MissouriSEC4424478.9
    31Florida AtlanticC-USA77121078.7

    32 Florida SEC 13 62 17 8.2
    33ArizonaPac-124525637.7
    34Wake ForestACC6720837.4
    35South CarolinaSEC2056567.2
    36IowaBig Ten3942387.2
    37NC StateACC4039407.2
    38NorthwesternBig Ten5431576.5
    39UCLAPac-121975236.0
    40DukeACC5135625.8
    41Washington StatePac-124649555.4
    42MemphisAAC7132485.1
    43West VirginiaBig 124258445.0
    44Fresno StateMWC95171004.9
    45PittsburghACC3764314.7
    46Iowa StateBig 124947784.6
    47Texas TechBig 125952594.1
    48Boston CollegeACC6837654.0
    49ToledoMAC7340414.0
    50BaylorBig 123478153.9
    51North CarolinaACC2581333.8
    52ArkansasSEC4172323.7
    53Georgia TechACC4863363.5
    54PurdueBig Ten6245893.2
    55San Diego StateMWC7550532.6
    56South FloridaAAC6953732.5
    57Arizona StatePac-123879462.3
    58IndianaBig Ten5667502.2
    59HoustonAAC7060492.1
    60NebraskaBig Ten2291422.0
    61Kansas StateBig 126469391.9
    62MarshallC-USA8046791.9
    63Appalachian StateSun Belt10934511.8
    64KentuckySEC2980751.8
    65CaliforniaPac-125771581.4
    66Arkansas StateSun Belt8941811.4
    67MinnesotaBig Ten4785450.8
    68OhioMAC11333910.1
    69Northern IllinoisMAC9154770.0
    70Louisiana TechC-USA866174-0.4
    71SyracuseACC588370-0.6
    72WyomingMWC1114396-0.7
    73VirginiaACC618272-0.8
    74SMUAAC8457112-0.9
    75VanderbiltSEC528786-1.0
    76BYUInd728835-1.1
    77Utah StateMWC1155954-1.1
    78TroySun Belt975593-1.1
    79TennesseeSEC2111525-1.6
    80MarylandBig Ten2310276-1.7
    81TempleAAC907461-1.9
    82Miami-OHMAC10351120-2.0
    83Middle TennesseeC-USA937088-2.9
    84RutgersBig Ten5390106-3.1
    85NavyAAC928452-3.3
    86North TexasC-USA9965113-3.6
    87Western MichiganMAC788966-3.7
    88CincinnatiAAC5510069-4.0
    89ColoradoPac-124311264-4.6
    90Western KentuckyC-USA859837-4.6
    91UABC-USA1177697-5.0
    92ArmyInd11068123-5.3
    93BuffaloMAC12566119-5.4
    94Southern MissC-USA749792-6.0
    95Colorado StateMWC829960-6.0
    96Eastern MichiganMAC12173124-6.1
    97Bowling GreenMAC889684-6.3
    98TulaneAAC7993108-6.6
    99IllinoisBig Ten5011882-7.6
    100New Mexico StateInd12477129-7.7
    101NevadaMWC9892109-7.7
    102MassachusettsInd11686125-7.7
    103KansasBig 1263110115-8.1
    104UTSAC-USA76106101-8.4
    105UNLVMWC10494114-8.4
    106Georgia SouthernSun Belt10610467-8.5
    107UL-MonroeSun Belt10295122-9.1
    108TulsaAAC8711187-9.2
    109South AlabamaSun Belt11810190-9.5
    110Oregon StatePac-126012668-9.7
    111New MexicoMWC114103102-10.2
    112Air ForceMWC12910771-10.2
    113Georgia StateSun Belt94109121-11.1
    114Old DominionC-USA122108104-11.5
    115LibertyInd130105116-11.8
    116Central MichiganMAC10711698-11.8
    117Ball StateMAC10111794-11.9
    118Coastal CarolinaSun Belt12811399-12.1
    119AkronMAC126114103-12.6
    120Florida InternationalC-USA83121126-12.8
    121UL-LafayetteSun Belt12011995-13.3
    122HawaiiMWC105123110-14.2
    123Texas StateSun Belt100122128-14.6
    124ConnecticutAAC96125118-14.7
    125East CarolinaAAC8112880-15.1
    126CharlotteC-USA112120130-15.2
    127Kent StateMAC119124117-15.3
    128RiceC-USA123127111-16.2
    129San Jose StateMWC108130105-19.1
    130UTEPC-USA127129127-20.3


    Explaining S&P+, college football’s deepest advanced analytics system

    https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...86/2018-college-football-rankings-projections
     
  20. mulegator

    mulegator Neanderthal Ninja Vigilante Moderator VIP Member

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    Tallahassee
    Combining a few ballots from around SB Nation (SBNation.com, Rocky Top Talk, Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician) and way-too-early rankings by Athlon, CBS, ESPN, Fox, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and Yahoo! Sports, plus early national title odds by the Westgate in Las Vegas, gives us a top 25 something like this (and, spoiler alert, the preseason AP Poll in August will look a lot like this as well):

    Combining a bunch of top 25s into one, we get:

    1. Alabama
    2. Clemson
    3. Georgia
    4. Ohio State
    5. Wisconsin
    6. Oklahoma
    7. Auburn
    8. Miami
    9. Penn State
    10. Michigan
    11. Washington
    12. USC
    13. Michigan State
    14. Stanford
    15. Virginia Tech
    16. Notre Dame
    17. LSU
    18. Florida State
    19. West Virginia
    20. Texas
    21. Boise State
    22. UCF
    23. TCU
    24. Mississippi State
    25. Oklahoma State

    https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...football-rankings-early-top-25-2018-preseason