Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gator_fever, Feb 25, 2020.
I’m getting verklempt. Talk amongst yourselves!!
So are they TRYING to get trump re elected? Hard to tell sometimes....
Speaking of dementia, how about Trump's comments on unemployment when he was running in 2016?
Trump and the Truth: The Unemployment-Rate Hoax
Then there's this story
Trump says illegal immigrants pouring across the border to vote
There's also this
Donald Trump, a literal billionaire, just said on national TV that wages are too high
It sounded like pandering to me. I am probably voting democratic in the next election but Biden made a couple of decent sound bites but if you dont think he looks out of it out there, I dont know what to say.
Biden is not my first choice and I do think that he suffers somewhat from diminished capacity and unlike the current occupant of the White House whom I also think suffers from a similar affliction, Joe Biden does not also suffer from malignant narcissism, and if elected would appoint competent advisors and actually heed their advice. Joe Biden realizes that he does not know everything about everything and also unlike the current POTUS would actually put the interests of the country before what would benefit him personally. Just an opinion but I also believe that there is a fairly good chance that Biden if elected would voluntarily serve a single term.
I'm a life-long Democrat, but that was a shameful performance last night. By the moderators, as well.
I think Trumps problem is his brain works faster than his mouth. Biden and Warren don't seem to have a brain.
Actually the opposite is true with Trump. Giving Trump credit where credit is due, he's a naturally gifted insult comedian and has the gift of spouting punch lines without really thinking. He also has the tendency to use the same lines repeatedly and they continue to draw applause from his fans.
Do you see Bernie pulling big support from Indy's I really don't.
Not sure he needs “big” support from indy’s, it’s not like there’s a chance in hell independents or suburban moms are going to show up in droves for Trump after already turning against him in 2018.
I would assume there is some loss among independents, but then there is some pick up with enthusiasm from the Bernie bros. It’s probably a wash in that regard compared to someone like Biden. IMO.
He's all over the place here in SC. Every local TV show- there's an ad for Steyer. On-line too.
I'm not sure what good its doing, but I appreciate the help to the local economy.
While I recognize it must be painfully difficult for you to watch this field of Dem hopefuls cannibalize themselves and your overall desire change the subject to Trump, this isn't even close to the same. Creepy Joe Biden, fighting for his life in the middle of a presidential debate, saying 150,000,000 people of died from gun violence since 2007 is just another in the long line of WTF gaffes he has made on the campaign trail. Given his age and the absurdity of some of his more recent gaffes, it's only going to get worse the longer he stays in it. No wonder Dems are rallying around a Communist.
Not sure I would tie the lack of turnout for the mid terms with lack of Trump support. Often mid terms are the only way the party not in power can do anything to fight back.. See 2010.
I don't know one woman who voted for Trump last time who isn't voting for him again.
I have noticed on Facebook, there are a surprising number of youngsters posting in open support of Mr. Trump. I've never seen anything like it, frankly. The admiration and support for this president, especially in more rural areas, cannot be overstated. I think he will easily outdo his 2016 turnout in rural counties and that's saying a lot. He annihilated Romney's 2012 numbers in many northern Florida counties.
Well yeah, if the turnout for 2018 were representative obviously Trump would lose in a landslide.
As long as the economy doesn’t freefall, most likely it will be very close - more like 2016 than 2018, and it really shouldn’t even be close for an incumbent President but for the fact Trump is Trump. Mostly it comes down to whether the dem candidate can outperform Clinton in some key states.
Sen Sanders said Pete has the backing of billionaires. Wow, hadn't heard that before. Oh, wait, yes I did ONE WEEK AGO. He did the same thing four years ago: STOP saying the exact same talking points from debate to debate. We all have TV, we all saw the Nevada debate. Get some new material.
We just elected a one term senator with no record and a reality show star back to back and THFSG is trying to figure out how independents will react to Bernie. Good luck ladies and gentlemen I don't have a clue. I will suggest that logic does not seem to apply. Think outside of the box.
They both share the 'miserable' gene.
Self described "independents" are all over the map ideologically. Some, like Bernie himself, see themselves as independent because they feel the major parties aren't extreme enough. So, there's no guarantee that a candidate in the middle is any more attractive to independents--particularly when Trump himself is far from moderate.
More importantly, every party member that you convince to vote is worth literally 10+ independents. 55-45 split of independents would be a massive, unprecedented blowout. That still only gives you a one vote advantage for every 10 independent voters. A more realistic 5 point win is only 1 vote for every 20 independent voters.
Meanwhile, party members vote for their party's candidate 90-95% of the time. So, convincing 20 party members to vote instead of staying home gives you an 18 or 19 vote advantage. That's equivalent to over 350 independent voters, even if you win independents by 5 points. It's far more important to energize your base than to win independents.
Put another way,
Hillary lost the Independent vote 46-42. About 43 million self-described independents voted, meaning Trump gained a ~1.7 million vote advantage by winning independents. How much would Hillary have needed to boost her turnout to counteract those those votes?
50 million Democrats voted in 2016 at an 89% clip for Hillary. If she increased that just 4% to 52 million Democrats (much larger swings happen in real elections all the time), Trump would have lost any advantage he gained from winning independents.
Granted you need your increase in votes to come from states that actually matter to the electoral college. Running up the score in California won't help you win Michigan. But the point remains that it is far more valuable to market your campaign to the people who will vote for you 90% of the time than 55% of the time (and even then, only hopefully).