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Buttigieg's Polling Numbers

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mdgator05, Feb 11, 2020.

  1. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Last night, when I looked through RCP's polling numbers in a general election, I found an interesting phenomenon. Buttigieg's national numbers are the lowest head-to-head against Trump, which isn't really surprising as that has been the case for a while now (he is at +1% against Trump, which is 1.2% lower than Warren who is second worst). I also saw that he recently polled by far worse in Texas, an expensive state to campaign in that has largely been ignored in the primary except by Bloomberg's national push (not surprisingly his numbers and Biden's numbers are best here) and to a lesser degree Steyer's national ads.

    But here is what surprised me: pollsters have put out general election polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire recently as well. In those polls, he is the top performer. He is at -1% in Iowa, while Biden is at -3%, Sanders is at -6%, Warren is at -5.7%, and Bloomberg is at -8% (although that is only one poll and Iowans probably resent him not participating to a degree, didn't see Klobuchar polled here). Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, he is at +7.7%, while Biden is at +6.6%, Sanders is at +5%, and Warren is at +1% (didn't see Klobuchar or Bloomberg polled here).

    A couple of questions to examine here on the electability front: is Buttigieg's national weakness simply a lack of name recognition and where he is recognized he shoots up? Does this work across demographic, specifically racial, groups or does he only do this with white people? Or is he just abnormally strong in those two places and this isn't an effect that can be replicated outside of early primary states?
     
    • Informative Informative x 3
  2. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist Premium Member

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    Interesting.

    Could be. One would think he must be behind in the recognition race. However, it might also suggest something less positive for him: that places like Iowa and NH are his best bets. Or it could be some combination.
     
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  3. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    I think name recognition is still a big part of it. In the few polls I've looked at, his name-ID still lags pretty significantly behind the frontrunners among Democratic primary voters. Would have to assume that gap is even larger nationally among registered voters.
     
  4. avogator

    avogator VIP Member

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    PETE has the lowest name recognition of the major candidates
     
  5. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    He should drop if he fails to win tonight. 2nd wont help him much I think though others may drop out..
     
  6. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    Why? He has the money and support to be in this for a long time. Not sure what good dropping does for him.
     
  7. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    Iowa and New Hampshire are not diverse states. He performs well in white states. Texas is one of the most diverse states in the nation (if not the most diverse). Buttigieg is an electoral disaster. Black voters do not like him. In a recent Ipsos poll, Buttigieg performed the worst against Trump among black voters. He had only a 57% to 4% advantage. 21% of black voters said they would support another candidate (the worst among the Democrats polled [Biden, Sanders, Klobuchar, Warren, Bloomberg, Yang, and Booker]), and 14% said they would not vote.

    Joe Biden performed the best in that poll. He had an 82% to 4% advantage over Trump, with only 5% saying they would support another candidate and 6% saying they would not vote. Black voters are the key to victory in 2020. If they don't turn out or they don't support our nominee at comparable non-Obama levels, we will lose. Black voters do not want Pete to be the nominee. The Democratic Party needs to listen if it doesn't want four more years of Trump.
     
  8. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    He'll stay in through SC. If he doesn't perform in NV and SC, he needs to drop out.
     
  9. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    Agreed, just not after NH.
     
  10. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Well that is the question: is his weakness there due to name recognition, which would also show up in the data like you showed or in active dislike. Iowa and New Hampshire are pretty white states, so that might be the issue. Another potential explanation though would be that he hasn't invested time, money, field work, and energy in those places as heavily yet (this is essentially the explanation that when he shows up he becomes more popular). I don't know if we have enough info yet, but it is an interesting question that I don't think is definitively answered yet on purely racial terms (which is not to say that is the wrong answer, but I am not sure that the existing data can show one way or the other yet).
     
  11. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    538 did a piece a while back finding that general election polls during the primary are an average of 11 points off when conducted in November or December of the year prior to the election.

    We’re obviously a month and a half outside that window, but I think the accuracy is still probably pretty far off. Name recognition is a big factor now, but won’t be come election time. Plus, all the surprises that can happen during the campaign season are hard to predict. A poll in February 2016 couldn’t account for Comey’s testimony and letter in October. Likewise other events might play to a certain candidates strengths or weaknesses in ways we can’t predict.

    In general, I think it’s a fools errand to try to guess what candidate would perform the best in a general election. There’s too much out there that can’t be adequately measured or predicted.

    Maybe Pete bombs or maybe he crushes. We won’t know until it’s too late to change our minds.
     
  12. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    I answered the question. Black voters don't like him. It's why he doesn't do well in diverse states. I'm not trying to be mean, but it seems like white people who like Pete are in denial. The existing data shows that black people don't want to vote for him. Even when you adjust for name ID, he does terribly. Hell, he campaigned quite a bit in SC and did not do well. Just one example of his ham-handed attempts at black voter outreach:
    Buttigieg campaign accused of improperly using names of black leaders in support letter amid struggles to attract African American voters
     
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  13. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Why are black voters the key? A huge proportion of them are concentrated in red states that the Democratic nominee has no chance of winning no matter how much he’s loved by AAs.

    Wisconsin is only 6.4% black. Michigan 13%, Pennsylvania 11%, Arizona 5%, Colorado 4%. Not huge numbers by any means.

    Overperforming with blacks really only provides a big advantage for North Carolina and Florida. But Hillary was pretty good on that count and both states went to Trump anyways.

    If anything, the Dems need to focus less on trying to flip states in the south and more on shoring up the white midwestern states.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    I recognize that you really don't like him, but the data you showed could point to either explanation. What is his name rec in South Carolina compared to others? Again, I am outright admitting that your explanation is entirely possible, but I don't think the counter-explanation has been disproven either. I am guessing that his name rec is much higher in NH and Iowa than anywhere else. Maybe I am wrong on that (and you can show me if I am), but that would really be how to disprove that.
     
  15. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    No, it doesn't. He performed the worst of the group of Biden, Bernie, Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Bloomberg, and Booker. Polling shows again and again that his black support nationally is between 0% and 4%. Polling in South Carolina just recently had Pete at 0% black support:
    Poll: Buttigieg has 0 percent support among South Carolina black voters

    And he fared just as poorly in the other poll recently released out of SC:
    ECU Center for Survey Research

    It's not name ID, dude. And you're right that I don't like Pete. Part of it is his lack of character. But another big part of it is pragmatism. He's an awful choice to put up against Trump, but a bunch of white people in this party just won't listen to reason.
     
  16. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    Census shows pervasive decline in 2016 minority voter turnout
    And black voters are especially important because they typically vote Dem in Presidential elections in margins along the lines of 87%-92% vs. 6% to 10% (R).
     
  17. bgator85

    bgator85 Premium Member

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    Pete seems to be banking on success in early states to prop up his numbers among voters of color as it moves forward. We'll know soon enough with the shift in states and increased polling. The potential for Pete to do well in Iowa and NH always existed, now his viability totally relies on him being able to prove he can expand his support. It looks like it is an uphill battle, but I also don't think it's a foregone conclusion that it can't be done. We'll see. Klobuchar is in the same boat now as well.
     
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  18. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Hillary was the AAs preferred candidate in 16. She crushed Bernie in the South, but she still wasn't able to replicate Obama's turnout. She couldn't win Florida or Pennsylvania and didn't even come close in NC or Ohio. And those are the swing states that actually have significant numbers of AAs.

    Don't get me wrong, I think it's still helpful to have AAs, but it's not do or die. They might vote 90% Democratic, but you know who else does as well? Registered Democrats. The focus should be on broadly increasing turnout across the base, including AAs but not with exclusion to the rest.
     
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  19. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    You know who doesn't? White people. If you pick a candidate that black people don't like, we will lose. It is absolutely do or die to have a strong showing from black voters if the Democrats want to win. It doesn't need to be Obama strong, but it needs to be strong. POC turnout will determine whether or not we win. Pete performs the worst with black voters, but he's not performing well with other POC either. Picking a candidate because of his appeal to white people is a path to a loss in 2020.
     
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  20. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe. I don’t expect we’ll find out, either way, though.
     
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