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Brexit not running smoothly

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Mar 10, 2019.

  1. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    With 19 days to go, May is unsuccessfully scrambling for a deal ... if no deal is had, Parliament will ask for an extension, and May will likely be outed in a "heavy defeat" ... some say it may all lead a Brexit reversal.

    'Brexit in peril' as PM May faces heavy defeat

    The United Kingdom’s labyrinthine crisis over EU membership is approaching its finale with an extraordinary array of options including a delay, a last-minute deal, no-deal Brexit, a snap election or even another referendum.

    The government has previously tried to use the risk of Brexit being reversed as a way to convince eurosceptics to back May’s deal despite their deep reservations about it.

    “If you want to stop Brexit you only need to do three things: kill this deal, get an extension, and then have a second referendum. Within three weeks, those people could have two of those three things ... and quite possibly the third one could be on the way.”
     
  2. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    She'll lose the first vote tomorrow. It doesn't go far enough for the hardline Brexiteers.

    Talk of Brexit not happening is extremely unlikely, as much as some would like it. That's just really the Leave crowd trying desperately to reinforce the need to vote with May tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt's comments are just scaremongering. Lots of desperate soundbites flying around today in the press overall, but it's Sunday - Britain always does this on a Sunday. But compromise may be necessary ahead for those who coordinate our departure.

    A loss in the vote tomorrow likely leads to a short extension on the A50 withdrawal while more fruitless negotiating can happen. The important thing is that we don't go with no deal which will ruin a lot of people...

    A significant number of Brits are still wildly uninformed / ignorant about what's going on - it's talked about ad nauseam and people are switching off. It's a national travesty to have not only wasted vast amounts of money on this, but so much time in Parliament too. All so unnecessary.
     
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  3. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    Well, well, well. She's had some concessions it would seem- at the very last minute -and now the vote may pass today. Depends on how the hard Leave campaigners see it. At this stage, it'll be too hard to call. She's got a guarantee there will never be a hard border in NI which was critical.

    For the record, I can't stand the woman. But if she manages to get it through now, I'll tip my hat to her. Not because I agree with her, but because she's done what most deemed was impossible. I'm shocked the EU caved really.

    My gut says it has more than a sporting shot now.

    EDIT: Spoke too soon! Apparently the Attorney General has now blown her 'legal concessions' out of the water, saying they won't hold up. I'd expect the deal to be defeated comfortably now in a few hours, and she'll be on resignation-watch...
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
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  4. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    So, let me see if I have this straight: they have now voted against May's deal (by a bunch again), a delay to Brexit, and the idea of ever doing Brexit without a deal (a bill that was originally introduced by May but she whipped against because she didn't like how it was worded)? So what now?
     
  5. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    What happens if Parliament does nothing? Are they still bound by the vote of the people?
     
  6. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    IIRC, Limey said they never were bound by the vote.
     
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  7. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019 at 11:33 AM
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  8. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Legend

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    But they did give the EU official notice that they were leaving. That's where the deadline for the deal comes from. If there's no deal by March 29 (I think), then the UK is out cold. Parliment can vote to ask the EU for more time to get a deal done, but the default is a hard, no deal exit unless they both agree on an extension.
     
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  9. fredsanford

    fredsanford Premium Member

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    I believe one of the votes today precluded a hard exit.
     
  10. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Legend

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    Parliment actually voted unexpectedly against that motion, saying they didn't want to take any options off the table.

    But even if they had voted in favor, I don't think the UK can unilaterally decide to not to exit anymore. Under EU law, they're officially out on the 29th regardless of what parliment wants. To delay the date (or to ultimately keep the UK in the union), the EU has to agree. They probably would, but they don't have to.
     
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  11. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    [​IMG]

    We really don't know. It's complete national chaos.

    All they voted on yesterday was to prevent a 'no deal' (meaning we either have to have a deal, or an extension agreed by March 29 - i.e. we can't leave with 'No deal', which would have been a catastrophe but was only being used as a negotiating ploy to get the EU to budge...). Apparently May is going to put her twice rejected vote to Parliament again next week... which is ironic. I thought that once a vote had been made, it had to be stuck to without a re-vote... :devil:

    Today MPs will vote on an extension to A50 and I'm pretty sure it will pass. For the simple reason that the legal mechanics of any deal, so I read, simply cannot be done now by 29th. But therein lies another problem - the EU - quite rightly, imo, as it's my country faffing around, not knowing what it wants - has given soundbites that any extension needs to be a substantial one, so that we don't just rehash the last 3 months into the next 3 (i.e. maintaining a threat of 'no deal' as a negotiating ploy again). Some reports I've read say it might be a year so that a People's Vote could happen. Personally, I still don't see that happening.

    Alternatively, it could possibly be a general election but the Conservatives can't get rid of May as they backed her in a leadership contest not long ago. She'd have to resign, which I can't see happening either as she's unnervingly stubborn. I'd expect more bickering and more breakdown of the political parties. Essentially we're in uncharted territory now. Oh, and Labour don't get a free pass either - 89% of Parliament backed triggering motion to enact the 2 year time frame on Brexit when A50 was done in 2017, including many of the planks that are now saying 'it's not enough time'. All politicking and game playing, as usual. Both parties are a national disgrace.

    Basically we've played a game of chess on our own and hit check-mate. If it wasn't so stupid, it'd be hilarious. Our politics is utterly screwed right now and I'm finding it hard to have any sympathy. Our system allowed this. I guess, let it be a lesson in history for Governments making sure they have a sound, well researched plan of action for the big stuff rather than choosing to wing it every time...

    We couldn't box our way politically through a pack of tissues right now.

    If you could send food, that'd be great.


    Some bits right, some not, PerSe.

    MPs voted 312 to 308 to avoid a hard Brexit, which was later doubled down. They voted to prevent No Deal, with several Tory MPs abstaining, after it was changed from a free vote to a whipped vote, including several high profile politicians (Amber Rudd springs to mind - the Home Secretary). However, as you rightly point out, the issue is that motion is not legally enforceable, so 'no deal' could still technically/legally happen if no extension is agreed. That's why that vote will pass today - it would open a whole set of new, nasty legalities for the Government, I'm sure. But I grant that the wording of the motion made it unneccesarily weird to follow - more double negatives than an argument with an 8 year old...

    As for unilaterally ending Brexit, yes we absolutely can. The EU made that clear a while back. But, as you rightly point out, we cannot unilaterally extend the deadline without their permission, which is why we are taking these steps now.

    It all beggars belief, really.
     
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  12. PerSeGator

    PerSeGator GC Legend

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    Thanks, the reporting is not very consistent.

    It seems what happened is that May tabled a motion to vote against a hard exit on March 29, then it was amended to say no hard exit at ANY time, so May turned around and whipped against her own (but amended) motion. She wants the prospect of an eventual hard exit to buttress support for her deal, just not a hard exit on the 29th.

    Hopefully I got that right.

    And it looks like you're right, the UK can decide to unilaterally cancel the exit. Kind of strange they can do that but not put it off unilaterally.

    If the EU pushed back on the deadline, I wonder if the UK could just cancel the exit and then immediately turn around and put in its notice of leaving again, pushing it off 2 years.
     
  13. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    Interesting idea. No idea on the technicalities of that, but the latter seems very unlikely to happen - I figure the EU would fail to negotiate in any good faith afterwards and the key to remember in all this is that we get hurt more than they do due to the sheer volume of our trade with the continent.

    Besides, the Brexiteers would be all over 'withdrawing A50' as an affront to national democracy (and frankly, that would be a hard view to debunk). Support at the extremes of politics would burgeon (which, I have to say, is what I personally believe is the main political sub-aim of the ERG at this point - why they didn't back May on this latest deal is quite telling - they knew this last vote on Monday was probably as close as they could get to delivering their version of Brexit but chose to die on a fantasist's hill for the glory of principle...).

    It is just my opinion, of course, but the only way it Britain will revoke A50 is via a People's Vote. And given I also strongly suspect that any second referendum wouldn't include the in-out question again (and would instead be phrased over the terms of our exit), I can't see any way we don't leave at some point.

    What my current gut tells me is that chaos will continue until there is a high profile dismantling of our 2 party political system along Eu/Anti-Eu lines. Maybe not a full dismantling, but certainly a trimming based on a different set of political ideas to what has existed before. There is already a new Brexit Party, there's the TIG and both will undoubtedly grow further at the expense of Labour and the Tories' numbers. I expect a lot of reshuffling. But that's nothing but conjecture on my part - power is very alluring and I suspect those in control won't give it up without a fight.

    If only Labour had been a credible opposition party, this would have died during the snap election. 2 party politics only work when both parties are strong!
     
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  14. tegator80

    tegator80 GC Hall of Fame

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    If I am not mistaken, the politics of the day is a combination of holding their collective breaths until they get their way and closing their eyes, meaning if you can't see the EU then they can't see us.

    Yes, those are childish. And that seems to be the play of the day. And I do believe this is all going to be about what does EU think of Britain. Is it a too-big-to-fail piece of a puzzle and so it is granted some leeway to come to grips with what it needs to do or do they see a somewhat lost cause that should be jettisoned in a politically/economically prudent manner? My take is if Britain came back with real contriteness it would be brought back into the fold, albeit at a lesser position. But if what they see is that bulldog spirit, I think parting is going to come whether the parties are ready of not.

    And to a bigger picture, I have always wondered how the economic train wreck would manifest. I first thought it was going to come from Europe, which would then afflict us and then take down China. But then it looked like China is cooking the books too much and they are going to be Ground Zero. I am beginning to think that what is going to start it all is Britain instead of a Greece, Portugal or Ireland. We do have an economic house of cards and anything that shakes it up too much has a real chance of bringing it all down.
     
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  15. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    Vote to extend passed and becomes official Government policy. Already, it's being made clear that it's done being done reluctantly. EU may not agree to it at all, though, as it's just for haggling further, pretty clearly. Doesn't really mean much in reality. A key vote that would have taken the control into MP's hands, over May's, was voted 314, 312.

    A People's Vote - that was so vocally backed by the opposition recently - failed heavily as Labour were whipped to abstain! So literally, after saying they backed it, they sat on their hands. Truly incredible act of self-harm - Labour will be the first party to fall on its own sword.

    Astonishingly also, Theresa May is now planning to bring her deal back to Parliament for a third time being voted next week. Apparently, the 'Will of the People' means we only get one vote because that's 'Democracy', but if Theresa wants it, she can keep the votes coming until they get it right.

    Utter national disgrace, all of them.
     
  16. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Limey, can you explain that "no confidence" vote thing ... we don't have it here.
     
  17. gator7_5

    gator7_5 GC Hall of Fame

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    Agree. How about all of it in layman's terms. Limey, pretend you are explaining it to an 8th grader... or general contractor.
     
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  18. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    Sure, sorry guys. Basically, if there are a sufficient number of votes in your own party, a vote of 'No Confidence' can be brought for consideration. This happened to Theresa May recently as a large number of her party (but still a minority as a whole), who are very hard Brexiteers, didn't think she was doing a good job. Not as PM, but as a negotiator of Brexit.

    For information, Theresa May (ironically) personally voted to Remain in the referendum. Her about-face only came after she had the chance to become PM. Go figure! Anyway, these Brexiteers in her party wanted a 'hard' Brexit - to pull away from the EU in just about every way. That has been pretty conclusively shown to likely cause a huge economic shock, which most of the public in Britain don't want. (Note: Most of those Brexiteers in her party that don't mind are unequivocally rich and won't be affected...). May - in trying to placate the Remain supporters a little, by lessening the blow and going for a 'softer' Brexit (i.e. still essentially the same leave but with some closer ties, including no hard border in Ireland) - hacked these party members off. They felt it wasn't Brexit at all (it clearly is/was) but they were prepared to die on a hill for it.

    So those hard Brexiteers got together and tried to oust her as their leader. They needed something like 50-60 votes to trigger it. A vote happened within the Conservative party and May won it quite easily - it was an embarrassment more than anything else, and showed how divided her party is. The offshoot of winning that vote means that no Party Leadership challenges can now happen for the Torys for a minimum of 12 months. So essentially they can't seek to force her out now. She'd have to resign and, as much as I think we'd all be happy if she did, she won't because she's blindly stubborn and can't admit any mistakes.

    Case in point, policing - she slashed police budgets when she was Home Secretary and the police struggled. I'm sure you may have read, but we have a growing knife problem in the UK and it could have been dealt with, but budget cuts left the police chasing their tails. May said "it's not due to cuts" and the Police Commissioner for the Met said "it's all down to cuts." What happens? With no fanfare, a few days ago the Government announced an extra £100m in funding for the police to tackle the problem. May? Stonely silent. She can't accept she's in the wrong, and that's why she can't do it now.

    I mean, you vote for Remain yourself. You say one vote is enough for the people (despite a bounty of polling evidence saying nationally, Remain would win pretty convincingly in a new referendum now...) and yet she's going to take her deal to Parliament AGAIN next week - that's 3 times - to try and ram it through. She's a hypocrite and an ignorant one at that. Sadly, as I've opined many times before, the guy over the bench is just as weak and impotent as she is. The in-fighting is a national embarassment. We've neutered ourselves and I couldn't blame one person around the world for laughing at us right now. Sadly, some of us are being horribly caught up in the whole saga and will be worse off as a result. It maddens me.

    Ok...

    Brexit: Any questions? :)

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. LimeyGator

    LimeyGator Premium Member

    Actually, I can do BETTER than that Gif to explain Brexit. You literally couldn't make this up:

    This is Stephen Barclay.

    upload_2019-3-15_9-46-6.png

    He is our Brexit Minister. He's the 3rd guy to hold that post in 3 years, in case you are keeping count.

    Yesterday he gave a rousing speech saying it was "time to act in the national interest" and commended the motion for a delay to A50. The above image is from his speech, where he openly and passionately supported a delay. And then he voted AGAINST it literally 15 minutes later. This is the guy who is our chief negotiator, who is now begging the EU for an extension and who apparently has the memory of a goldfish. I am beginning to think Mel Brooks wrote this whole screenplay for us.

    Oh and Theresa May? She contradicted him and voted FOR an extension. The same extension she said was wrong and that we must leave by 29th March.

    All those in favour of Brexit claimed this was mostly about "taking back control". Which is absolutely hilarious when you think about it - we now need the EU save us, to avoid ourselves choking on our own banana. You couldn't make it up!
     
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  20. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    How is the EU dealing with the UK in the negotations? Are they making it difficult for them to leave or trying to push them out?