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Bill Maher calls out US media over Covid coverage

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gator95, Apr 17, 2021.

  1. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Just a guess but it's a reasonable assumption that the rating of "Funny" is attributable to a certain poster who didn't want his preconceived narrative to be affected by the linked articles and therefore didn't bother reading any of them.
     
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  2. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    One thing we should have learned but apparently didn't is that social distancing and shut downs were actually effective in 1918/1919.
    Spanish flu 1918: How cities fared in containing killer virus
     
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  3. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Not pre-conceived. Actually from reading and researching data. I’ve posted countless articles and charts showing the dat. I was right on schools and right on lockdowns not working. I was wrong on predicting auto deaths would decrease in 2020. Won’t know for a long time if suicides drop in 2020 since we don’t even have the final 2019 suicide stats yet. But hey, you guys keep listening to 60 minutes and read the NYT’s. They tell the truth...
     
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  4. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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  5. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Heart disease deaths per year in the US: about 655K
    Heart disease deaths in 11 months and 1 day in the US starting February 1 and ending January 2: 675,068 (extrapolated to 12 months, this would be about 736K).

    Cancer deaths per year in the US in 2019: 599,601
    Cancer deaths in 11 months and 1 day in the US starting February 1 and ending January 2: 590,518 (extrapolated to 12 months, this would be about 644K).

    Alzheimer's deaths in 2018: 122,019
    Alzheimer's deaths in 11 months and 1 day in the US starting February 1 and ending January 2: 131,471 (extrapolated to 12 months, this would be about 143K)

    There are higher rates for all three because Covid can push people who have any of these three diseases to die.

    Top causes of death in the United States in 2020: Heart disease, cancer and COVID-19
    Heart Disease Facts | cdc.gov
    An Update on Cancer Deaths in the United States
    2020 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures - PubMed.

    You have been wrong for a long time on the excess deaths (but are not correcting yourself afterwards). We are up to estimates of 545,600-660,200 excess deaths between January 26, 2020 and February 27, 2021.

    Notes from the Field: Update on Excess Deaths Associated...
     
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  6. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Oh I’m quite confident that I haven’t been wrong. Given the similarities in data from states with draconian measures vs. states with reasonable measures that there would have been anywhere near the deaths predicted by the “experts”in media even if we had just done the two weeks to flatten the curve? You know, the curve that didn’t really need to be flattened.
     
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  7. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Posting data from 1-2 years ago is a huge help. Thank you...LOL

    I haven’t been wrong on excess deaths. But you have been terribly wrong on lockdowns and schools being closed. The funny part is I know you know that but are too full of yourself to admit that.
     
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  8. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    You claimed certain deaths stopped. I showed what happened before and after Covid. Not too hard to figure out. And if you actually read the information, you would see increases in those forms of deaths, not decreases. This is easily explained by the fact that Covid will cause more people with each of these conditions to die.

    Projection. You initially touted a claim of 300K excess deaths, ignoring that it was incomplete. You are still claiming that Covid deaths are more than excess deaths, which is factually wrong.

    Look, if you stop being factually wrong, you can stop protecting your own ego by trying to claim opinions of other people on an issue not under discussion here are factually wrong (that doesn't even address what the person you are addressing's opinion actually was, as you don't even know that, you just need something to protect your own ego whenever somebody shows you data proving you wrong...again).
     
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  9. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Ah, that’s why your under-counting. Someone with heart disease can live A full life for decades longer. but that is a pre-existing condition, get covid and die within weeks. But for some reason that shouldn’t be counted as covid. Meanwhile we all saw icu’s packed and docs and nurses repeatedly pleading and stating they’ve never seen anything like it. I guess deny those facts along with what docs, science are saying and artificially lower the numbers. Maybe even mock the dead like Bill Maher.
     
  10. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Before and after covid? LOL. Was covid happening in 2018? All you posted was the CDC using a MODEL to guess at the data. Here is the sentence in your link: “Using weekly historical and provisional NVSS mortality data from 2013 through February 27, 2021, expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns (1,2)”

    Look, I get it. I’d be pissed if everything I believed in and talked about for a year was wrong, but those are the breaks. I know, defending CA and schools being closed for almost a year can really jade you. Admitting you are wrong is the first step. You can do it.
     
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  11. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    No, that was before. To provide a comparison to what was happening afterwards so as to judge your claim that those types of deaths stopped, when, in fact, they increased. Seriously, it isn't that hard to follow (you just don't want to).

    How do you think excess deaths are estimated? It isn't a guess. It is a statistical estimate based on a statistical model judging what deaths are "supposed to be." Always.

    I get it. You are pissed that everything you talk about is factually wrong and need it to be somebody else's problem.

    But I'll play your game of deflecting to other issues: why were you so wrong about suicides? Will you admit to that, given that you predicted a huge spike and we have seen a decrease?
     
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  12. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    I wasn’t wrong about suicides. We don’t even have 2019 suicide data. IF in 18 months or so when the data comes out then I will gladly say I’m wrong. But I see you won’t with lockdowns and schools. Quite funny. All the data out there on lockdowns and schools and you still won’t take the L on that.
     
  13. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Lol. Thanks for proving the point.
     
  14. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    So in conclusion, here are the claims and the facts:

    Claim: Heart disease, cancer, and dementia deaths decreased (exact words used "stopped happening")
    Reality: All of them have increased in rate as Covid tends to kill people with each of these conditions.

    Claim: "The math doesn’t workout even if you assign every single excess death in 2020 to Covid. "
    Reality: Excess deaths are higher than Covid deaths.

    Claim: "When you make anyone dying with 30 days of having Covid be the cause of death, than all you have is BS numbers."
    Reality: That is not how death reporting works.
     
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  15. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    This is too funny. You have shown no data from 2020. You posted data from 2018 and 2019. Way to go! Good job!
     
  16. WC53

    WC53 GC Hall of Fame

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    That is why most experts are looking at excess death trend-lines when calculating covid deaths. Gets a bit tricky after a lock down as some categories were drastically reduced due to the lack of travel. You will probably see some deaths lower the next couple of years as covid sped up some deaths
     
  17. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Data from 2020 from that post, since you missed it:

    Top causes of death in the United States in 2020: Heart disease, cancer and COVID-19

    I can see why you missed it. The article is just entitled "Top causes of death in the United States in 2020: Heart disease, cancer and COVID-19." That could mean any year, really. Way to go!
     
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  18. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    What part of “Where the CDC ranks COVID-19 in the causes of death for 2020 won’t be finalized until late 2021 at the earliest.” did you not understand? Seems easy for me to grasp. Might be hard for you.
     
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  19. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Yes, it is possible that the current data is undercounted a bit. Which makes your point even more wrong, somehow.

    So as a reminder, your claim was that Heart Disease, Cancer, and Dementia all disappeared as causes of death. The reality is that all of them increased in rate. And eventually might increase by even more. Glad that you pointed that out because you couldn't take admitting that you didn't read a post correctly!
     
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  20. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Nope. I guess sarcasm is hard for some to grasp.
     
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