Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by thatguy, Sep 4, 2021.
I still think Virginia Tech would be a great addition
In another thread I postulated that, given the possibility that there aren't enough resourceful universities to have 4-16 team power conferences, there may be 3 and one "mighty midget" conference with 20 teams with a limited chance of getting a team (or two in an extraordinary season) in a 12-team playoff. This feels like the beginning of that conference.
What I can't fathom is the travel costs to run the thing. Yowzers.
I agree with you here. I have always said that expansion isn't so much about adding strong football teams but adding strong programs with large alumni bases, large loyal fan bases (statewide), history the financial resources.
10 years ago, I would argue that USF was pretty clearly the stronger candidate. In my opinion, USF is probably still the stronger candidate, but UCF has closed the gap quickly. Tampa/St Pete is the #13 TV market and Orlando is #17, but Tampa moved down a spot from last year while Orlando moved up. USF also used to have an advantage of having on-campus housing, better campus infrastructure and a better stadium. But UCF has done a lot of infrastructure improvements, has an on-campus stadium and has one main campus while USF has split campuses. And of course, UCF is winning.
But winning comes and goes. When USF and UCF have been down, they've been WAY down and support has been modest. That can be said for most metro or newer universities. I'm kind of surprised the Big-12 would offer UCF without at least giving USF a hard look (yes I know USF was considered). I think the Big-12's objective is more about winning now and keeping the conference viable (even if not P5) so they don't lose the Texas/OU buyout. If the Big-12 does take UCF, Cincy and Houston from the AAC, the remaining AAC may look more on par with C-USA.
To me, it doesn’t make sense to have nonrevenue sports in a giant superconference. Better to have football, men’s basketball, women’s basketball and maybe women’s soccer since it’s growing in viewership in the main tv deal conference and then either have teams play in existing conferences for the other sports or make up some new smaller ones that are more geographic in nature.
Obviously no one knows if the first true superconference will be an expanded Big Ten taking select ACC and PAC teams or if there’s going to be a blend of ACC and PAC instead probably with the best of the Big 12. But for this discussion let’s assume my model of a “Continental League” occurred. So you’ve got:
You can then leave those teams in the two pod system I mentioned for football. And for basketball you can either leave it alone and play across the whole league OR an idea I like even better…bring on two nonfootball teams for each half and have a Pacific and an Atlantic basketball league that also has a big “challenge” every year.
So in my ideal scenario you’d have
Atlantic Basketball and non Revenue League:
UConn (nonfootball member)
Villanova/Georgetown/Duke (nonfootball member)
Pacific Basketball and NonRevenue League
Gonzaga (nonfootball member)
Kansas/Arizona/Santa Clara/Baylor (nonfootball member)
To me, taking UCF without USF doesn’t make sense by itself. Because in my mind what you’re getting out of UCF is the same as TCU, meaning popular in one large growing metro area and a strong recent football team but not really dominant in the state when it comes to popularity.
When I was suggesting the ACC or PAC expanding into Texas/Oklahoma with what was left of the Big 12, I never said “Let’s just grab TCU and bam! We’ve got Texas.” Instead it’s bring in Texas Tech to be second best in West Texas, TCU to be third best in Dallas Ft Worth, OSU to be second best in Oklahoma and maybe Baylor to be third best in Central Texas. Those cobbled together gives you maybe the same viewership as aTm or Oklahoma, but not even up to Texas. I think it would still be worth it as a package deal but not alone.
In the state of Florida, you don’t have a monolith like Texas that dominates the entire state other than a small part near Houston where aTm reigns supreme in their tiny fiefdom while yellow-orange covers 95% of the map. But you do have a Florida Map that looks like this:
Tip of Panhandle (ie Pensacola Metro Area with 600k people in the metro)
Middle of Panhandle to Big Bend (ie Panama City/Destin metro plus Tallahassee/Thomasville metro about 950k)
North Florida (ie Jacksonville metro 1.6 mil)
Northern Central Florida (Ocala and Gainesville Metros plus “Nature Coast” on the Gulf about 850k)
Orlando Metro (2.7 mil)
Tampa/St Pete (3.2 mil)
Southwest Florida (Sarasota plus Ft Myers Metro for about 1.7 mil)
Southeast Florida (Miami plus West Palm metro areas for 6.9 mil)
That’s why bringing in UF and FSU provides good coverage for most of Florida and Miami brings in a hefty chunk of population simply by being third in a lot of areas and #1 in the most heavily populated area. But UCF doesn’t gessst you much outside of Orlando and to a lesser extent Tampa and Ocala.
Now if you took UCF, USF and FAU and cobbled them together…maybe now you can convincingly say that you’re covering the state of Florida.
If metro areas mattered then FAU, FIU and Georgia State would be hot up and comers.
They need more of this. Wait for it...wait....someone loses a wig in the fracas.
Here you go!
With the new NIL laws…they might be. I definitely think at least when it comes to recruiting that the old rural colleges will have some problems competing against urban metro colleges in the near future. I don’t think it will be a seismic shift where suddenly UCF, Georgia Tech and Miami are out recruiting Bama and Clemson. But I do think it will start trending that way. And that’s good news for Miami, UCF, USF and FAU and bad news for UF and FSU. Just one more hill to climb.
You kind of went off the rails there with your detailed breakdown.
The issue is simple. The historical land grant public universities in each state and in most state the second "state" school have alumni distributed throughout the state. The metro schools typically have most of their alumni concentrated in the metro area.
That's why the power conferences only want the land grant and state schools. They don't want all these metro based schools in the mix. The metro schools don't drive the revenue.
There's no team in Texas beyond UTX and Texas A&M that will drive much revenue.
Texas is such a giant football crazed state, I think they can support 5 or so P5 teams especially if Florida can support 3 and possibly four. One big advantage to Texas Tech over UCF is that while UCF is at least currently an OTown maybe slightly up and over towards Ocala area, Texas Tech is essentially THE school of West Texas. And there’s not a lot of BIG cities in west Texas, there is a lot of oil money and a substantial population when you add up all the small towns scattered over that huge area. ATM is essentially limited to East Texas which IS where the bulk of the population lies like Southeast Florida, BUT there’s still a ton of “empty” Central and West Texas area for support for teams other than aTm to be #2 after UT. And Texas Christian has the benefit of being third best in East Texas with a lot of alumni in the Dallas Ft Worth area and with the generic “Christian” tag it could spread some popularity wide IF they maintain and grow success. UCF is stuck with Central in their title and I don’t think they’d ever grow much popularity outside of Orlando, maybe Ocala and maybe Jax. But Tampa and on south plus the heart of the Florida population in Miami/Palm Beach areas will never be accepting of them over UF, FSU, Miami and their hometown metro schools.
Texas, Texas A&M, Florida and FSU are the state schools in TX and FL. That's it!
UCF, USF, Miami, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU and TCU are all fine schools but have predominantly regional/metro fan bases within their states. None of them are going to drive statewide TV carriage. Without TV carriage, there is almost no value in conference network deals. Truth is that even FSU and Miami doesn't garner statewide carriage for the ACC Network.
The Big-12 is done as a power conference. UCF, USF and all those other schools you keep mentioning will not make them a power conference. There are no schools out there anywhere that are going to make the Big-12 stronger financially. The "P5" is NOT going to expand. It's going to contract, starting with the remaining Big-12 schools.
It's funny because my son in law was texting earlier that he's so excited that UCF is finally going to be in a P5 conference. He said the Big-12 is telling these schools that they're still "P5". What they aren't getting is that it's now P4 and any claim of being P5 now is going to be the same as the AAC calling itself a "P6" conference.
I see this helping Cincy quite a bit. UCF as well. It can be argued that the only reason they never played in the playoffs or title game during any of their undefeated seasons BECAUSE of the conference and lack of competition in those conferences. Being a member of the BIGXII may give them a better chance at making it..... that is of course if the BIGXII remains a P5 conference.
Big12 is already in the g6. They’re done, whether they know it or not. Ucf and cincy do not replace ok and tx, period. They bring the big12 further down. They do absolutely zero to restore the big 12 as a power conference.
I don't think the teams help the conference as much as the conference affiliation helps the teams. That will depend on if the playoff committee or whoever is responsible for those things, still deems that conference relevant.
Simpler said, the reason they didn't sniff the playoffs was because they were G5. No G5 team will ever make the playoffs. That is the reason.
The ACC would be wise to grab WVU and Cincy. From a geographical standpoint it makes sense and both are solid in basketball and football. WVU has the rivalry with Pitt and seeing Louisville versus Cincy would be quite appealing to their respective cities. Additionally, you’re adding to your media market with WV, OH and IN (when you get Cincy you’re automatically grabbing the tri-state area of KY, OH and IN).
Completely agree that that Big-12 is done as a power conference, and that these schools don't even come close to replacing Texas and OU, but the Big-12 has to do something to survive and this is about the best they can possibly do.
But there are some indirect ramifications of this. First and foremost, UCF, BYU, Cincy and Houston in the Big-12 is clearly a stronger overall conference than the AAC. The school that wins the conference championship is going to have a stronger resume than winning the AAC.
Personally, I think UCF (or any other team) will have a much harder time going undefeated playing against Iowa State, TCU, Baylor, WVU, OSU and Kansas State, as opposed to schools like Tulsa, ECU, SMU and Wichita State. I think there will be a lot more respect for the team coming out of the new Big-12 than the current AAC and stronger consideration for an at-large bid if there is an expanded playoff. In addition, the AAC will fall back to C-USA/MWC level as a conference, so the new Big-12 will pretty much be the one tweener conference and effectively replace the AAC ... and market itself as such.
This may also indirectly help the SEC. I read that if the Big-12 does a vote and Texas and OU don't vote, that may enhance their legal position to get out of the buyout and join the SEC sooner.
UCF has a student population of 72,000 now. Largest in Florida and one of largest nationally.
HS kids all have friends going there and are visiting. When I head my daughter and her friends speak, USF is not even in the discussion. UF, FSU and UCF. When we wake up in 10 years, UCF will have significantly grown alumni and fan base.
P5 or P4 has to do with playoffs / bowl affiliations. With Texas and OU, the SEC can grab more guaranteed bowl money.
Here’s what 2021-2022 looks like for the Big XII…and potentially the SEC moving forward. Obviously the SEC can’t play itself, so…
Big 12 Bowl Tie-Ins, Affiliations
1. Sugar Bowl vs. SEC
Big 12 Champion goes here if not in the College Football Playoff, or highest-ranked Big 12 team
2. Valero Alamo Bowl vs. Pac-12
3. Cheez-It Bowl vs. ACC
4. Mercari Texas Bowl vs. SEC
5. AutoZone Liberty Bowl vs. SEC
6. Guaranteed Rate Bowl vs. Big Ten
Potential other matchups
– Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl vs. C-USA, Pac-12, or Army
– SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs. ACC, American Athletic, or Pac-12