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Beware the Curse of the Third Year...

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by MoscowGtr, Dec 31, 2019.

  1. MoscowGtr

    MoscowGtr All American

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    I am sure someone else has pointed this out, but we are coming up on the dreaded third year of a coaching era. For those of you who don’t know what I mean:

    McElwain’s third = losing record following 10 and 9-win seasons; fired.

    Muschamp’s third = losing record following 11-win season; should have been fired.

    Meyer’s third = 9-4 season between 13-win national championship seasons, only bowl loss.

    Zook’s third = 7-win season; fired.

    Spurrier’s third = 9-4 season between 10 and 11-win seasons that included conference titles.

    Galen Hall’s third = 6 win season following consecutive “on the field” SEC titles.

    Pell’s third = 7-win season between two 8-win seasons.


    I included Pell just to keep it honest - with his (better than trend) 7 wins included, that ups the third year average to 6.3 wins over the past 7 coaches - during a time when Florida football was generally successful. This includes the only two losing seasons since 1979, a 6-win season, two 7-win seasons, 2 firings, and another very-near-firing.

    If Mullen were to win 10 games next year, he would be the first Florida coach in history to win 10 or more games in his third year.
     
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  2. maxgator

    maxgator VIP Member

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    Cool. Trask wins the Heisman.
     
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  3. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    What a bunch of crap.
     
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  4. antny1

    antny1 GC Legend

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    My first reaction is this year really sets up differently than the others though. 92 Spurrier lost tons of experience from both lines of scrimmage.

    Zook did about the same in every year which is why he was fired. Actually he was decent that year as we were robbed against Tennessee and beat FSU. Just knew that even miss state had a chance to beat us which they did because we were so inconsistent.

    Meyer= 1992. We had a ridiculously young defense. Lost almost everything from 06.

    Champ, lost Quinn to the NFL and our offense/injuries happened. We weren't set up at all at qb especially once Brantley went down. Two raw true freshmen. Just awful scenario.

    Mac doesn't count. Turd.

    Mullen has returning depth at QB and hopefully talent infusion along with returning experience at OL which hopefully buys us time to develop the WR Corp and a second running back. Was good to see Davis with a bit of his old spurt back last night. Pierce will be featured.

    Defense. Our secondary play gets a huge boost of talent and athleticism even if young. Safety play cannot get worse. Same for linebacker minus losing Reese which may hurt but hopefully improved line play from end to end will help with that too. Sucks losing Greenard and Zuniga. But zuniga was hurt most of the year and Greenard was a one man show. I'm thinking what we lose with him we gain with more even play across the line as stated.

    We shall see but we had fatal flaws in each of those other seasons that could have been expected really. With how we managed the gaps in the team this past season I don't see the big 3rd year drop coming.
     
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  5. antny1

    antny1 GC Legend

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    Eh. Not sure why people are coming down on him. There is an established precedent. I don't think it applies to us this year but I see the concern and its worth discussion.
     
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  6. thale410

    thale410 GC Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Well, I think we can say that season 3 separates the real coaches from the pretenders. In the case of Spurrier and Meyer, when you win a championship (SEC or MNC), you will lose players that go early to the draft. They still won 9 games with a depleted roster. In the case of Mullen, we still have major problems on the OL due to Mac's lazy recruiting. Maybe the OL sees a big improvement in the offseason, and it will no longer be an issue. We have depth issues all over, and we lose a lot of talent at WR and DE. Mac's recruiting was so bad, it takes years to recover from it. No other coach in modern UF history started with as little talent as Mullen, nor did as much with that talent in the first year.

    If we wind up with a 9-win season next year, I will not be too upset. We do not have the roster yet to compete with Bama or LSU, and we are a step behind Georgia in talent as well. Muschamp and Mac destroyed our reputation with recruits, so it will take time to restore that.
     
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  8. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Don’t know if we improve on 11 but we have much to look forward too!
     
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  9. hoyt233

    hoyt233 GC Hall of Fame

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    Prattvile, AL-Go Lions!
    Beware the curse of the beware the curse of the 3rd year thread.
     
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  10. busigator96

    busigator96 Hooked since summer 1997!

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    is this a warning or a self fulfilling prophecy? :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
     
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  11. wingtee

    wingtee GC Hall of Fame

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    Your post is a true buzz kill. Thx
     
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  12. tigator2019

    tigator2019 GC Legend

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    In my head--- UF
    MoscowGtr No such thing as a curse. Come on
     
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  13. DBCooper

    DBCooper GC Hall of Fame

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    Does Putin taste your food for you to be sure you’re not being poisoned? Enjoy the off season as UF is ALWAYS undefeated in it.
     
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  14. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Zook, Lumpy, and Butters were certified losers. This was known before their third season.

    Urban sandwiched that 3rd season with NCs. Spurrier sandwich his 3rd season with SEC Championships.

    Simple stats don’t tell the whole story.
     
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  15. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Zook, Lumpy, and Butters were certified losers. This was known before their third season.

    Urban sandwiched that 3rd season with NCs. Spurrier sandwich his 3rd season with SEC Championships.

    Simple stats don’t tell the whole story.
     
  16. antny1

    antny1 GC Legend

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    What part of my post didn't address that?
     
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  17. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Okay okay, too soon. There’s no such thing as voodoo magic and great coaches with solid staffs often win something their third season, surely.

    Thanks to TJ and Chem for adding some rational and informative mojo.
     
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  18. GatorSean

    GatorSean GC Hall of Fame

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    The third year is when the first class--the transition class-- of the new coach, which is usually small and not great--becomes upperclassmen, so there is generally a lessen of leadership and talent. It's not a curse, it's just a logical dent in the recruiting classes.

    The transfer portal will help and we also have 5th year Sr QB returning, which I'm pretty sure none of the other 3rd year teams had. As long as we don't lose too many surprise Juniors to the draft I really don't see a drop off at all.

    You could see the drop off coming in 07-- the entire starting defense was underclassmen... but that's also why they were so good for the next two years.
     
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  19. mcorsair15

    mcorsair15 GC Legend

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    dang- you beat me to it lol. Also a launch point for our team as they won the National Championship the next year....TT should've won his 2nd Heisman over Bradford.
     
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  20. MoscowGtr

    MoscowGtr All American

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    Guys, Jeez - it is just (to me) an interesting historical quirk. I am not saying it will have any effect on Mullen's success. I have obviously missed some bitter debates that have made some of you so defensive about perceived... what? Historical quirks?

    Further to some of the posts and messages: correct, I don't actually believe in curses.
     
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