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Between Missouri, LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and FSU…

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by The_RH_Factor, Oct 5, 2022.

  1. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

    Sep 13, 2007
    Kentucky is still significantly better than Mizzou, FSU, LSU and SC. Probably TAMU too. Kentucky is a top 15 team and a top 25 team at worst. Mizzou and SC are many many stages below that
  2. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 9, 2007
    Upstate, SC
    What you call "significantly better" and "many many stages below" Vegas says is just 6.5 points. At home.
    In terms of UK vs USCe that is.
    Vegas could be wrong, but last year UK was, yep, just 6 points better than USCe. In Columbia.

    I'm taking UK -6.5 in Realty's game though. FWIW.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 19, 2007
    7 regular season wins would be incredible, meaning a potential bowl loss would not cause UF to have a losing season. I would have said this before the season as well.
  4. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

    Apr 3, 2007
    If we don't beat Mizzou we won't even reach 7 IMHO.
  5. jcmiller910

    jcmiller910 Premium Member

    Sep 18, 2019
    We can beat all these teams and be competitive with UGA as long as the defense makes some sort of improvements, AR plays well, and we stay healthy.
  6. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 19, 2007
    Agreed, but I think after seeing 3 straight games of woeful defensive ineptitude a lot of fans have written-off the notion of the defense making enough meaningful improvement to impact the remaining games. I'm afraid I'm on the fence myself. Maybe its an omen that Mizzou is coming to town since I think the Defense needs to show me that they can play more effectively than they have.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. jcmiller910

    jcmiller910 Premium Member

    Sep 18, 2019
    I believe we'll see the defense take some steps forward this weekend. We just need to create pressure on the QB and be tough in the red area.
    • Like Like x 1
  8. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

    Dec 3, 2019
    nothing wrong with being hopeful but that's all it is at this point. hope. Nothing so far has shown any reason to believe we will be better on defense after the last 3 performances.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. missourigator

    missourigator GC Legend

    Apr 13, 2007
    I totally agree. We have too many people who believe for some reason our defensive is going to do a 180. They have been poor for 5 games why would you think we be Better all of sudden. Offensives sell tickets, defenses wins championships.
  10. gatorempire

    gatorempire GC Hall of Fame

    Jul 23, 2021
    I hope so. Missouri sure has had their way with us and just took UGA down to the wire.

    Sick of losing to them, they're rarely even decent but we sure do have issues with them.
  11. fox

    fox GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 3, 2007
    Florida Beachland
    To take back the Swamp we have to play more physical than the other team.
    • Winner Winner x 1
  12. eastowest

    eastowest GC Hall of Fame

    May 13, 2007
  13. benheb

    benheb GC Hall of Fame

    Feb 2, 2011
    Colorado Springs
    If we get behind in a game, we have the guns to catch up. At least it's starting to look like we do.
    The D is a disaster. Linebacker position is horrific and D line is not as good as we thought it was - which I believe was just a little better than adequate. I'm surprised we are favored by 11 this weekend. Doesn't seem like we match up well with them but hopefully AR can make up difference. If we can get a little more out of the defense, we can win all the tossups.
  14. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

    Nov 11, 2014
    That's the spirit.
  15. As of now, the win probabilities for our games (with comparison to two weeks ago) based on ESPN FPI are as follows:
    • Missouri 72.0% (down slightly from 78.3% two weeks ago)
    • LSU 25.2% (down from 44.7%)
    • Georgia 5.5% (down from 9.6%)
    • Texas A&M 39.1% (up from 29.7%)
    • South Carolina 71.65% (slightly up from 69.9%)
    • Vanderbilt 79.75% (slightly down from 86.8%)
    • FSU 34.49% (varied between 43.3% and 53.5%)
    The trends for Florida and FSU have been similar--the FPI and expected win percentages have gone up and down as the teams find an identity. Florida's FPI started at 12.4, dropped to a low of 5.1 and began climbing again to its current 6.8. FSU's FPI started around 7.9, dropped a little, and then rose to about 9.5--higher than Florida's. Both teams enter their respective conference gauntlets (if you consider the ACC schedule a gauntlet), so we should expect those FPIs to become more accurate. This season has taught us that modeling and prediction is less accurate this year than in previous years, at least to week 5.

    All that to say that although I am a big fan of statistics and analytics, I am not sure if we have enough data on the Gators or any of our opponents (except maybe Georgia) to get worried about losing certain games or get excited about dominating other games. LSU is improving from what looked to be a train wreck of a season. Texas A&M is a mystery. FSU is better than most thought they would be. Missouri games seem to always defy logic when they play Florida. At this point we know the defense is not championship caliber, and the offense depends entirely on which side of the bed Anthony Richardson wakes up on. In the past those were signs that Florida would finish with 6-7 wins, so that has not changed my opinion of the team. The only thing that surprised me was that Florida beat Utah and lost to Kentucky. I had those results switched. If Florida beats Missouri then I think we are on a path to 8-4 (4-4). If we lose to Missouri then we can all panic about not making it to 0.500.
  16. The_RH_Factor

    The_RH_Factor GC Hall of Fame

    Aug 11, 2010
    Florida-24 Missouri-17

    That’s one down now.

    On to LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, then FSU.
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2022
    • Like Like x 1
  17. easycoastgator

    easycoastgator GC Legend

    Dec 26, 2018
    I called 7-5 before the season. I think we’re looking good for that. 8-4 definitely possible. 9-3 I dunno man
  18. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 3, 2007
    Orlando, FL
    They all look tough. Gotta hold serve at home.

    Best case scenario 7-4 going into the FSU game.

    If we lose against LSU we need to find a way to beat aTm.

    But honestly there are no sure wins. We are entirely capable of losing every game left on the schedule.
  19. easycoastgator

    easycoastgator GC Legend

    Dec 26, 2018
  20. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 3, 2007
    Orlando, FL
    We’ve lost to them twice in the past 10 years.

    Not a sure thing; not with this team.