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Between Missouri, LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and FSU…

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by The_RH_Factor, Oct 5, 2022.

  1. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    Kentucky is still significantly better than Mizzou, FSU, LSU and SC. Probably TAMU too. Kentucky is a top 15 team and a top 25 team at worst. Mizzou and SC are many many stages below that
     
  2. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    What you call "significantly better" and "many many stages below" Vegas says is just 6.5 points. At home.
    In terms of UK vs USCe that is.
    Vegas could be wrong, but last year UK was, yep, just 6 points better than USCe. In Columbia.

    I'm taking UK -6.5 in Realty's game though. FWIW.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    7 regular season wins would be incredible, meaning a potential bowl loss would not cause UF to have a losing season. I would have said this before the season as well.
     
  4. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    If we don't beat Mizzou we won't even reach 7 IMHO.
     
  5. jcmiller910

    jcmiller910 Premium Member

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    We can beat all these teams and be competitive with UGA as long as the defense makes some sort of improvements, AR plays well, and we stay healthy.
     
  6. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    Agreed, but I think after seeing 3 straight games of woeful defensive ineptitude a lot of fans have written-off the notion of the defense making enough meaningful improvement to impact the remaining games. I'm afraid I'm on the fence myself. Maybe its an omen that Mizzou is coming to town since I think the Defense needs to show me that they can play more effectively than they have.
     
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  7. jcmiller910

    jcmiller910 Premium Member

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    I believe we'll see the defense take some steps forward this weekend. We just need to create pressure on the QB and be tough in the red area.
     
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  8. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

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    nothing wrong with being hopeful but that's all it is at this point. hope. Nothing so far has shown any reason to believe we will be better on defense after the last 3 performances.
     
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  9. missourigator

    missourigator GC Legend

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    I totally agree. We have too many people who believe for some reason our defensive is going to do a 180. They have been poor for 5 games why would you think we be Better all of sudden. Offensives sell tickets, defenses wins championships.
     
  10. gatorempire

    gatorempire GC Hall of Fame

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    I hope so. Missouri sure has had their way with us and just took UGA down to the wire.

    Sick of losing to them, they're rarely even decent but we sure do have issues with them.
     
  11. fox

    fox GC Hall of Fame

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    To take back the Swamp we have to play more physical than the other team.
     
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  12. eastowest

    eastowest GC Hall of Fame

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  13. benheb

    benheb GC Hall of Fame

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    If we get behind in a game, we have the guns to catch up. At least it's starting to look like we do.
    The D is a disaster. Linebacker position is horrific and D line is not as good as we thought it was - which I believe was just a little better than adequate. I'm surprised we are favored by 11 this weekend. Doesn't seem like we match up well with them but hopefully AR can make up difference. If we can get a little more out of the defense, we can win all the tossups.
     
  14. TrueGator

    TrueGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That's the spirit.
     
  15. As of now, the win probabilities for our games (with comparison to two weeks ago) based on ESPN FPI are as follows:
    • Missouri 72.0% (down slightly from 78.3% two weeks ago)
    • LSU 25.2% (down from 44.7%)
    • Georgia 5.5% (down from 9.6%)
    • Texas A&M 39.1% (up from 29.7%)
    • South Carolina 71.65% (slightly up from 69.9%)
    • Vanderbilt 79.75% (slightly down from 86.8%)
    • FSU 34.49% (varied between 43.3% and 53.5%)
    The trends for Florida and FSU have been similar--the FPI and expected win percentages have gone up and down as the teams find an identity. Florida's FPI started at 12.4, dropped to a low of 5.1 and began climbing again to its current 6.8. FSU's FPI started around 7.9, dropped a little, and then rose to about 9.5--higher than Florida's. Both teams enter their respective conference gauntlets (if you consider the ACC schedule a gauntlet), so we should expect those FPIs to become more accurate. This season has taught us that modeling and prediction is less accurate this year than in previous years, at least to week 5.

    All that to say that although I am a big fan of statistics and analytics, I am not sure if we have enough data on the Gators or any of our opponents (except maybe Georgia) to get worried about losing certain games or get excited about dominating other games. LSU is improving from what looked to be a train wreck of a season. Texas A&M is a mystery. FSU is better than most thought they would be. Missouri games seem to always defy logic when they play Florida. At this point we know the defense is not championship caliber, and the offense depends entirely on which side of the bed Anthony Richardson wakes up on. In the past those were signs that Florida would finish with 6-7 wins, so that has not changed my opinion of the team. The only thing that surprised me was that Florida beat Utah and lost to Kentucky. I had those results switched. If Florida beats Missouri then I think we are on a path to 8-4 (4-4). If we lose to Missouri then we can all panic about not making it to 0.500.
     
  16. The_RH_Factor

    The_RH_Factor GC Hall of Fame

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    Florida-24 Missouri-17

    That’s one down now.

    On to LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, then FSU.
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2022
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  17. easycoastgator

    easycoastgator GC Legend

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    I called 7-5 before the season. I think we’re looking good for that. 8-4 definitely possible. 9-3 I dunno man
     
  18. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    They all look tough. Gotta hold serve at home.

    Best case scenario 7-4 going into the FSU game.

    If we lose against LSU we need to find a way to beat aTm.

    But honestly there are no sure wins. We are entirely capable of losing every game left on the schedule.
     
  19. easycoastgator

    easycoastgator GC Legend

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    Vandy?
     
  20. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    We’ve lost to them twice in the past 10 years.

    Not a sure thing; not with this team.