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Baseball is a simple game and we lost for simple reasons

Discussion in 'Diamond Gators' started by Matthanuf06, Jun 26, 2023.

  1. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Not at all... when balls a strikes are called that's when the human factor plays too much of a role in a sport. By the way Rivera was not out of the running lane to first base early in the game.
     
  2. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Umpires need to be downgraded more to a confirmation role and not an active make the call role. Let technology decide.

    An umpire should never be allowed to decide if he wants to keep a tighter or looser strike zone. The strike zone is the strike zone. You don’t change it based on how you feel like calling the game or how you want it to flow. If you approach your duties in such a way please go impale yourself on a rusty spear and stop disrespecting the game. Same thing with balks, outs, etc.
     
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  3. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    I know what you mean. I felt badly for Heyman he looked at the ref with disdain after getting high/inside balls called strikes, and when we pitched them they were called balls all night long. It's happens far too often.
     
  4. volungator

    volungator All American

    First and foremost this was a great season (all things considered).
    To those who comment that winning the Saturday game would have resulted in a championship -- assumes, of course, the Sunday outcome is unchanged. However, we've no idea how the LSU team would have handled and responded to a first-game loss. This assumption reminds me of the movie Bruce Almighty. In this movie (for those that haven't watched it or don't remember it) Bruce plays God and changes the course of history entirely by changing (what seemed like) a minuscule event.

    I agree with the opinion that Sully leaves a struggling pitcher in too long.
    Sully is known in the baseball world to be baseball rules expert and coaches based on statistical analytics. Having said that, I'm very surprised that Sully does not have a prediction model for pitchers' success inning by inning for each of his pitchers. After watching any pitcher throw 30+ pitches with x number of strikes, balls, HBP, WP, high or low pitches, struggles with inside or outside, etc. Sully should know statistically the likely outcome based on the aforementioned stats. Anecdotally, we (spectators) all know when a pitcher starts out the way Cags did yesterday that the result is UGLY. Why wait to change? Sully should know the statistical probability of what the second inning will look like based on the numbers from the first inning. Having these numbers would also serve as support for his decision when he gets pushback from the pitcher or his parents.

    Numerical facts are a stubborn thing.
    Good, great, or bad game performances aside, it's always great to be a Florida Gator.
     
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  5. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    Interestingly I don’t see how Sully uses analytics at all with the pitching staff. On offense, maybe. But with the staff? The predictive data is pretty well established and Sully definitely didn’t use it. For example the multiple time through the order effect. In general once a starter is going through their third time through or a reliever they’re 2nd you should expect a major decline. You absolutely have to have guys ready, if you even let it get that far.
     
  6. TJtheGator

    TJtheGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Jac performed well enough in his pitching duties to earn the start last night. We were all rightfully worried, but he earned it.

    There was no one else to start over him. Top to bottom this was one of Sully’s worst pitching staffs in his 15th year at UF and yet they were good enough to sweep F$U, win the SEC title, reach Omaha, and keep us in position to win Saturday night.

    This wasn’t the 2017 staff with 3 future first rounders, but it was good enough to do the things mentioned above.

    Even then you still need a ton of luck on your side.
     
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  7. MatsideObserver

    MatsideObserver GC Hall of Fame

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    His start against TCU would say otherwise. Ugly first with 2 walks a hbp and a wild pitch but lasted 4+ giving up only one run.
     
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  8. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    Sproat and Waldrep are projected first round picks.

    Starting Cags is fine. But he treated it like a throwaway game vs a directional game. You absolutely have to have your pen going early and often. Sully didn’t get the pen going until the AB where Cags should have been pulled.

    Watch MLB do or die games. They’ll have their pen going immediately at absolutely any sign of trouble.

    Also we should have used Cags as an opener. One time through the order no matter what. We had the entire strong part of the pen. Cags once, Slater once, Fisher once, then Neely the rest of the way. The xERA on that set up would have been excellent.

    In 2023 the data is pretty damn clear. It was the freaking national championship game

    Watch the Rays in the playoffs. Only Glasnow or Mclanahan will go more than once unless it’s an absolutely dominant showing. And those two won’t get to the third time through unless they are dominating.

    Not just Sully but college coaches seem consistently 10-20 years behind the times. Teams still play small ball for some odd reason.

    Do we not have an analytics department or are we unable to read the publicly available research?
     
  9. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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  10. shelbygt350

    shelbygt350 VIP Member

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    My opinions_

    1- Yes re the Sat hit ball by Wyatt gives us title, but that's baseball.
    2- If Robertson doesn't make that CF catch over his head are in in finals vs LSU?
    3- Josh running to first vs Lsu, he was on grass initially then got into the lane, then reached the base and had his foot on it, as in SAFE before the Lsu 1B man got the ball, so how can he have interfered. Replay guy must be an idiot. If I slide into home before the Catcher gets the ball, how can I be anything but safe and a run?
    4-The Skenes love fest got a little over the top, I thought they were going to follow him into the toilet.
    5- BT was funny when interviewed after game 2, he mentioning he was the team leader in Ks.
    6- Kurland is a real player.
    7-Loved Evans playing well after sitting on the bench for so long.
    8- Bugs me that lsu CF and 3B are from FL, Crews from Orlando area and White from St Pete beach.
     
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  11. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Can’t deny it. This loss leaves the same kind of taste I had after the Nebraska beating.
     
  12. gator34654

    gator34654 GC Hall of Fame

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    Sobering stats: W/HBP/K

    Florida:

    8/1/16, 8/3/4, 8/4/8

    32 free passes with 28 Ks

    LSU:

    2/1/20, 6/1/14, 2/1/9

    13 free passes with 43 Ks

    I am a little surprised with the exception of one game our hitting was anemic in the CWS but the top 8 teams usually will have very good pitchers which helps explain our problems at the plate. But hitting/run scoring is a big part of being successful. In our series with LSU, they were more successful two out of three games.
    I was really surprised with our first 2 starters lack of control and early high pitch count. Surprisingly, LSU was unable to take full advantage of that and we almost stole game one despite how we started the game.
    Now, my head scratching was with the final decisive game. It's no secret to anyone that Cags habitually has control issues. Walks and hit batters are pretty common. It is true teams don't hit well verses Cags but they don't need to with all the walks and hit batters. Of our starters, it seems he has more trouble getting beyond the 4th or 5th inning. So, with the all the marbles game, knowing his control issues, I agree why weren't we better prepared for this? I had a feeling for both teams there would be a quicker hook especially limiting damage. It's possible Sully had seen limited damage with our first two starters and maybe we could once again weather the storm once again by keeping Cags in, but it was a momentum changer for LSU.
    I don't know what the future is for Cags, hopefully he can grow as a pitcher, but for sure he can do well as a first baseman. And as a hitter, the guy cranks.

    Bottom line, we can nit pick here and there as fans usually do but what an amazing season. I hope this team, coaches and fans relish what was accomplished this year rather than dwell on what might have been. And as far as Sully goes, UF is very fortunate to have him. We are in very good hands going forward.
     
  13. stingbb

    stingbb Premium Member

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    UF pitchers, as a staff, struggled with command and wildness all season finishing with the third most walks and the second most HBP in the SEC. Sproat, Waldrep and Cags each gave up well over 60 combined BB/HBP and that is a major reason why, despite having very good stuff, each ended with an ERA north of 4.00.
     
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  14. grant1

    grant1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't know the rule, but the commentator said the runner is supposed to run on the out of bounds side of the line, which he clearly did not do. If that is the rule, then it was the correct call. They should change the rule to allow the play to stand IF there was no interference with the play at first, which was the case last night. The 1st baseman dropped the ball, but not due to any interference.
     
  15. audiogatorjim

    audiogatorjim GC Hall of Fame

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    I disagree with Jac starting. Every one of us knew the real possibility of him throwing balls, wild pitches, hit batters. I think Sully should have had someone ready to come in when it went awry. To me, that’s where the game was lost. I would have started Fisher and had 2-3 relievers ready to go. LSU pitchers pitched a ton better than ours.
     
  16. wci347

    wci347 GC Hall of Fame

    The bottom line is that we had LSU on the ropes in game one. Sometimes you have to walk hot hitters to take their ability to change the game around as White did. Winning would not have ensured that we would have won the championship, but it made it a lot easier for LSU to do. It was a very emotional game, and we left a ton of players in scoring position.

    I never thought the team was as good as it was. Hat's off to the program, and here's to a bright future. Many transfers are going to want to come to strengthen our lineup and pitching staff as well as HS recruits. The future is very bright. We are blessed to have Sullivan. We should give him a lifetime contract.
     
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  17. GATORAJE

    GATORAJE GC Legend

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    If we had gotten one clutch hit in the B10th on Saturday night, last night would not have existed.
     
  18. GATORAJE

    GATORAJE GC Legend

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    Yeh, that crap seems to happen a lot with them, especially since the Warren Morris homerun back in 1996.
     
  19. ocalaman

    ocalaman GC Hall of Fame

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    Starting pitching had been a strength of the team all year, but was really bad against LSU. Our bullpen was thin, but effective when not stressed. Abner not being available, for whatever reason, hurt as well. We gave up way too many free passes and for the first 2 games managed to wiggle out of jams over and over. Last night it all fell apart. I stated a couple of weeks ago that to me winning the D1 CWS is the hardest thing to do in sports. It takes great talent, obviously, but also great leadership, team chemistry and a whole group of guys peaking at the right time and then getting the clutch hit or clutch out on several occasions in multiple games. And then it takes some luck - a ball being fair or foul, a bad hop in the infield, a line drive being caught or just over the head of an outfielder, so many little things that break for or against you. Winning your conference championship is the #1 goal of every Gator coach and every team in every sport. Post season success is icing on the cake. This Gator team was special and should have nothing but pride for their accomplishments.
     
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  20. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    Most definitely. Wee Willie Keeler said "hit 'em where they ain't." But that is easier said than done.