AR could go to the NFL according to 1010XL "big if"

There are 32 teams and only one Drake Maye.

 

If he comes back then he can improve and hopefully learn how to hit WRs in stride on the seam and crossing routes. Until he improves on anticipating the throw/route then he's just a very athletic guy chucking the ball. Those are a dime a dozen. maybe a quarter a dozen with inflation. But that is all on him and his work ethic. Also would be nice if he looked at other WRs than the guy he expects to throw to. his sacks yesterday were mainly because he was locked in on one guy while other dudes were running with 3-4 steps on the defenders trying to cover them (mostly crossing/drag routes).

If he goes, I expect Jalen Kitna to be the guy. He throws a nice ball and needs reps to show if he can be the man. Yesterday he threw 2 passes. One was on the run and ill-advised throw that was almost picked. The other was a beautiful pass to the seam that went for 29 yards simply because he hit his guy in stride and the WR was able to continue running. 1 pass 29 yards. AR had 11 for 112 yards (11/23 112 yds). We'll see who does what. But if I were an NFL guy cutting checks, I'm not willing to write one for AR as a QB. Maybe a project TE if he can catch.

 

I'm nervous every time he drops back. He throws 150 mph fast balls across his body while on the dead run to a receiver crossing the middle 15 yards away.

 

Dumb move if true. The talent is there. The seasoning is not.

 

32 teams, yes, but not 32 1st round QB picks.

Last year had 1 in the 1st, 0 in the 2nd and 3 in the 3rd.

Anything beyond that is a sketchy proposition for a QB with long-term NFL aspirations in the last 20 years.

 

What round do you think he will go?

 

Impossible to know. Some of the mocks have him in the 2nd or 3rd, which at least feels logical to me.

The NFL is not a developmental league. If they draft a QB they want him to be NFL-ready relatively soon.

I think staying would prolong his NFL career prospects with the risk of lowering his draft stock.

It's a tradeoff for sure. He's gotta do what's best for him but it would suck if he left, sat on the bench for 4 years and got the bust label. Might end up doing a lot of "what if" questioning down the road.

 

I think I read Nick De La Torre talked to 3 different NFL scouts who all have him going in the first round.

 

When was that? I only started seeing the > round 1 picks recently.

I'll just say, 99 out of 100 times if a guy was going to go 1st round you do it. Full stop. I'm just worried about his long-term prospects and think he'll get paid (beyond NIL) more if he stays another year.

 

Yesterday.

 

I would love to see AR return but that would be for my benefit. Whatever the young man decides I will support. As far as “if he leaves”, I have seen enough of Kitna to feel good about the position and that’s not even considering Miller. Kitna makes faster decisions and better reads, IMHO. We will have a stable of quality RBs and solid line. Sure, we’ll miss AR’s athletic run game but I’m not so sure that we will need it, to be honest.

 

About reading the field- great example with 2 min left in the first quarter.
We have first and 10 on our own 14, up 14-0.
AR throws 50 yards into TRIPLE coverage. Our WR had no chance and frankly it should have been picked. Meanwhile our tight end is wide open about 8 yards down the field. AR never even looks at him. That was the throw to make.
The next play was Etiennes long run so that bad pass was forgotten, but In the nfl that’s a pick so that run never happens.
I love AR but he needs to come back.

 

Lance had 4000 yards of total offense, 44 TD’s, and literally threw no interceptions over 278 passes at a 67% completion rate. He ended the year throwing his only pick, making his TD/INT 30:1.

That’s a slightly different stat line. He already dominated his level, he wasn’t showing promise that he could.

And so far, so catastrophic. That pick isn’t looking so good.

Jordan Love is another example. R1 pick to sit behind A A Ron and now GB can’t make the playoffs because they do things like take R1 QB projects. Love also had prolific numbers, not a guy who looked like he might be able to the next season. He passed for 8600 yards and 60 TD’s in college. I suppose the jury is still out on him personally, but what we’ve seen so far didn’t go well and as mentioned, GB is a raging dumpster fire. I might add that his last season was a 20/17 TD/INT line. The one before was stellar. But if you’re getting picked 1.5 times a game by Hawaii, wait till you get a load of Buffalo!

So even with the recent R1 examples above they are different because those stat lines were much different. AR is lifetime 55%, 3500 yards, 30 total TD’s, 18:12 TD/INT. So the thinking is the completion % and TD/INT rate will dramatically IMPROVE if only we can get him against NFL defenses? It just defies rational thought.

Having said all that, NFL teams often have rocket surgeons like Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder calling the shots, so I’m not claiming it’s impossible. And if he can get R1 money now, then that’s essentially a no-brainer. What would be the benefit of returning?

 

Well, there's always the tight end position. Let the bacon fly, bacon, bacon and bacon

 

Lance had 4000 yards of total offense, 44 TD’s, and literally threw no interceptions over 278 passes at a 67% completion rate. He ended the year throwing his only pick, making his TD/INT 30:1.

That’s a slightly different stat line. He already dominated his level, he wasn’t showing promise that he could.

And so far, so catastrophic. That pick isn’t looking so good.

Jordan Love is another example. R1 pick to sit behind A A Ron and now GB can’t make the playoffs because they do things like take R1 QB projects. Love also had prolific numbers, not a guy who looked like he might be able to the next season. He passed for 8600 yards and 60 TD’s in college. I suppose the jury is still out on him personally, but what we’ve seen so far didn’t go well and as mentioned, GB is a raging dumpster fire. I might add that his last season was a 20/17 TD/INT line. The one before was stellar. But if you’re getting picked 1.5 times again by Hawaii, wait till you get a load of Buffalo!

So even with the recent R1 examples above they are different because those stat lines were much different. AR is lifetime 55%, 3500 yards, 30 total TD’s, 18:12 TD/INT. So the thinking is the completion % and TD/INT rate will dramatically IMPROVE if only we can get him against NFL defenses? It just defies rational thought.

THISSSSSSSSSS

 

They get paid.

But of course there are a lot of busts. But acting like us message board gurus know better than the industry is a little arrogant. They certainly make mistakes but it’s much more likely the anti AR crowd here is wrong

 

No "anti AR" at all, many prefer him to stay another year and develop his passing skills as opposed to leaving early and flaming out in the nfl. I'm not sure how many owners would pay big money for a project unless some think 55% passing is passable.

 

Don’t know AR.
Don’t know his goals.
Don't know his personal situation. So,
It seems we all agree that to grow as a QB he would be wise to stay in college, whether UF or somewhere he thinks can help him.
If his goal is to “get rich” then he should show out at combines and take the money.

Good success to him no matter what he chooses.

 

They make as many mistakes as they do correct decisions.

There's thousands and thousands of prospects and sometimes there's herd mentality that drives the scouts.

It's very much an inexact science.

 

And again, I'm not anti-AR, I think he's potentially a generational talent. But he's very raw, and if he goes this year I'm just praying it's by an organization that's willing to bring him up slowly and not throw him to the wolves. Because it won't be pretty.