Andrew Nembhard - NBA draft prospects good

I wouldn’t call him a prototypical point guard, but I do think he’s an efficient at point, and can be a very good one. I think he’s a combo guard. But, to my original point… if he and Nembhard are on the same team, Nembhard starts at the 1 and Mann starts at the two. No Nembhard, then Mann starts at the 1. UF didn’t have enough depth to have Nembhard coming off the bench. Wouldn’t have made sense.

 

Yes, Mann would be better at the 2 than Nembhard, but he would be a less effective player. And if they played together, Nembhard would have gotten the nod at the 1, and Mann would have been relegated to the 2, and we would have seen paltry numbers from him as we did his freshman year.

 

As a lifelong Point Guard, I completely agree. Just because you can dribble and make nice passes doesn’t mean you are a point guard. I think Mann could be a good PG, but as far as natural PG, Nembhard is an obvious and undeniable PG. Mann is a natural SG and can play PG if needed. More of a combo guard.

 

I think Mann as were a lot of players including Nembhard, were damaged by White's system. And I agree if you want a player who can see the floor better than anyone else, then Nembhard is much more desirable than Mann. However, if I am a GM for an NBA team, and I have a player who can pass, shoot, penetrate and finish, and play defense as opposed to a player who primarily passes, I am picking Mann. That is why he was the 18th pick and Nembhard, despite playing for a national championship contender, fell to the 2nd round. Nembhard had the benefit of getting the green light as a starter from day one. Mann was relegated to the bench despite being a McDonald's All-American.

Yes, it is a team sport, but when people chose players to play for them, 9 times out of 10, they are going to choose the person who is the better player. Mann is a better player.

 

We both want them both to succeed but numbers don't lie.
Here are Nembhard's numbers:




Here are Mann's numbers:


In what respect based upon numbers was Nembhard a better player in college??????????

He started 115 games to Mann's 24. He shot .03 better in FG%. and .03 better from 3. But we are factoring in how White literally screwed up Mann's freshman year by simply not playing him. Nembhard started every game his freshman year. Mann started 4. The psychological impact that had on his confidence must have been traumatizing for a McDonald's All American who was the best HS player in the city of Gainesville, and could have gone to any school in the country he wanted to. When AN was relegated to the bench at Gonzaga his junior year, his numbers took a dip. Even though his FG% overall went up including 2's and 3's, his points per game went down, his rebounds went down, his assists went down, and his FT % went down.

But if you look at Mann's sophomore year, when White basically had no choice but to start him, he shot .46% FG AN 44% (once again insignificant), but 40% from 3 as opposed to AN's 30%. So clearly when Mann was put in a starting role, and knew he was not going to get yanked every time he missed a shot as White did to him his freshman year, he excelled above Nembhard. Look at the FT. Mann 83% and AN 78% (sophomore year). 5.6 rebounds a game for Mann 3.5 for AN. Assists 3.5 Mann 5.6 AN (advantage AN), turnovers were in favor of Mann (so much for being less of a pg), and obviously Mann averaged 16 points a game to Nembhard's ll his sophomore year.

When they picked Mann 18th it was not based just on potential. He was misused his freshman year. This was a character trait of White. He could bring in talent, but he did not know how to use it or develop it. If Mann had a freshman year like his sophomore year, he does not have a sophomore year. Nembhard tested the waters for the NBA every year he was in school, and had to play 4 years to be a second round draft pick.

Clearly your opinion of who was considered the better player in college is a minority opinion.

 

If Nembhard had stayed at Florida, he’d likely have been a first round pick after his junior year. Bolting to Gonzaga actually hurt him a little with respect to the draft. Mann and Lewis really benefitted from AN’s departure. It is likely that AN would have been a 1st rounder and Mann slips to the 2nd, with Lewis being the odd man out. Or… they ball out together and all get drafted after a deep tournament run. It’s very hard to say who was the better overall college player, because they are so different. It really depends on what you value.

What we can agree on is that I don’t think that White utilized AN to his fullest abilities. I did defend White as a coach, but it appears he could have pushed the ball more during AN’s tenure.

 

I believe I got these numbers from the same website you did. The Per 100 Numbers provide each players Offensive and Defensive Value for 100 possessions. This is one of the more base metrics that the NBA and guys like Golden use.

Andrew Nembhard College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Tre Mann College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

These numbers may provide a clearer lens to look at each player's college career. For his college Career Nembhard has an Offensive Rating of 113.4, which is pretty good, a stellar Defensive Rating of 98.6. A difference of 14.8 points. Right about where you'd expect the 31st pick in the draft to be as far as these metrics go.

Tre Mann has an Offensive Rating of 103.9 and a Defensive Rating of 100.5 for a difference of 3.4. Respectable numbers, but not overly draft-worthy numbers.

Tre Mann was drafted based on potential. A host of slightly more advanced metrics would demonstrate that Nembhard had a more accomplished college career based on the numbers, but the ratings above, based on the player's performance throughout the year, are a good introduction to how much a player impacts winning on both sides of the ball.

Likewise, Mann's odds of being a better NBA player (13 draft picks higher), are certainly higher than Andrew's at this time. However, I wouldn't go so far as to call them overwhelming.

 

I think AN would have thrived in White's LaTech offense.

 

You can drill down to the minutiae to construct a scenario where it appears that Nembhard had a better college career.

But the metrics that win games - points, rebounds, turnovers, assists, fg%, steals, and blocks - Mann has a distinctive advantage.

factor in Johnson, Allen, Blackshear, and other skilled players that Mann never got to really play with in live games with, and the fact that Nembhard’s numbers did not skyrocket playing with even more talent with Gonzaga, leads me to the conclusion that the difference in the draft selection was more demonstrated talent than potential talent.

Mann was playing with a bunch of 3 stars for the most part his sophomore year. Nembhard was around borderline McDonald All Americans his sophomore year.

 

I find that to be a very intriguing thought experiment. I gave you crap for your (in my view, incessant) ragging on CMW. I've always been the last one to give up on a coach.

In the last few months, you've convinced me. And these two sentences above clinch it. I can't argue with that.

 

I just took the information off the same page you did. I don't have to explain Nembhard's shortcomings in one area or another, because who is the better player is based on a simple numerical scale.

Put another way, this is the perfect example of the difference between Mike White and Todd Golden. Mike White refused to entertain data, or advanced metrics, while Todd Golden runs his entire program around it.

 

Yes. Basketball is a team game. But it is not solely built on having a play making point guard, a long range shooting two guard, a slashing three, etc. That is the traditional template, but not how a team has to be built.

Remember the Bulls when they dominated the NBA? Did they actually have a point guard? Certainly wasn't Steve Kerr. Great shooter, but was he the two guard and not Jordan in a regular way of thinking about positions? Please. Scottie Pippen was the closest thing that they had to a point guard but he didn't do everything that we normally think of a point guard doing and did a lot of things beyond.

I really liked the 1989 Illinois basketball team for putting on the floor a collection of players that really didn't fit into the normal description of 1 through 5 players. If it wasn't for Glenn Rice going nuts in the NCAA semifinals I think they would have won it all that year.

 

I don't think the great Bulls teams of the 90s are a fair yardstick. They had the GOAT, plus amazing talents in Pippen, Rodman, and Salley, and very good across-the-roster depth.
And yeah, Kerr was a true point guard.
I agree on that Illinois team. They didn't win it all but they had the best team in the land. That happens sometimes. Winning a title ain't supposed to be easy.

 

Salley?

Kerr played point in college but he was a shooter and not a play maker on those Bulls teams.

Of course having Jordan was a huge deal. Great all around player.

I also liked Magic as a great all around player. He could be effective anywhere on the court. Maybe the most versatile player ever.

 

I may be stretching it a bit to call Salley "amazing." He was a good one, I'll leave it at that.