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Afganistan / What Now?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by Gatorhead, Aug 12, 2021.

  1. gator34654

    gator34654 GC Hall of Fame

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    Explain to my how DT tied the hands of JB? Frankly JB has attempted to reverse everything DT has put together, the pipeline, the S border, etc. JB as commander and chief most certainly could have sent/added troops to protect the pullout. Contrary to reports given him in July that the situation was bad, he decided to pull troops wanting to do so by the end of August. Instead of being precautionary making sure we had the sufficient troops to withdraw our people and equipment, he continued to pull troops. But call me surprised you want to blame Trump.
     
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  2. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Do you realize that the troop drawdown was done under Trump? That Trump ordered the gubmnt to release 5k Taliban? That Trump negotiated surrender with Taliban and didn’t invite the Afghan gubmnt?
    Pentagon says US has dropped to 2,500 troops in Afghanistan
     
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  3. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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  4. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    Swing and a miss. I'm not calling for DeSantis's resignation over his COVID blunders (and neither is anybody on your side, which is the point). It's right-wingers who are demanding Biden's resignation over a blunder that has not yet resulted in an American life being lost (as far as I know). If your threshold for resignation is that low, you better turn it on your own people. Otherwise, be quiet.
     
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  5. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    It seems pretty clear Biden basically just wants out. Similar to Trump in a way. Not sure he would have made a show out of negotiating with the Taliban, as Trump tried to do. But it pretty much seems like Biden is on board with continuing that as an out.

    The Pompeo surrender deal probably tied his hands slightly, in the sense reneging would have enraged the Taliban and kicked off a new escalation in the war. So basically Biden’s choice was to stick to the withdrawal, or bring a crap load of troops back to double down on supporting the Afghan government (Trump had dropped the troops to 2,500... which helped the Taliban gain some of the provinces they did after that deal was signed... what type of resources would have been needed to stem that tide?). But Biden was never going to send more troops, it seems pretty clear Biden was also hellbent on getting out.
     
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  6. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Excellent deeply reported piece from NYT.

     
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  7. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    . You didn’t answer a singe question about the logistics and consequences of the surge of troops you propose. Only the desired result.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2021
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  8. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    you didnt either
     
  9. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Here are Trump's comments. Followed by an explanation in Foreign Affairs of the choices Biden faced when this started.

    After the agreement to withdraw troops, he drew down or presence to the point we depended on the Taliban to keep the deal and not attack because we did not have enough troops except to continue to withdraw.

    Do you understand that sending more troops back into there meant going back to war? And that those troops had to be supported and defended?

    Which gets back to the questions I keep asking.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...afghanistan-statements-that-havent-aged-well/

    “I started the process. All the troops are coming back home. They couldn’t stop the process. Twenty-one years is enough, don’t we think? Twenty-one years. They [the Biden administration] couldn’t stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough to stop the process.

    — Trump, at a political rally, June 26



    The Myth of a Responsible Withdrawal From Afghanistan


    There is virtually no chance that the Taliban would agree to allow the United States to maintain an indefinite counterterrorism footprint on Afghan soil. Doing so would require the group to abandon its number one demand and the rationale for its insurgency: the removal of all foreign forces. Because they prize cohesion, Taliban leaders wouldn’t make an agreement that they couldn’t sell to the group’s commanders and rank and file—especially since the Trump administration already agreed to withdraw all U.S. troops by May. One can’t entirely rule out the possibility that a future Afghan government that includes the Taliban would agree to cooperate with the United States on counterterrorism, but Washington certainly shouldn’t count on it.

    Of course, the peace process could fail, in which case the issue of regional support would become moot. But even then, the United States wouldn’t be able to maintain an exclusively counterterrorism footprint. Having gained and then lost a U.S. commitment to withdraw, the Taliban would once again violently contest any U.S. presence. In such a scenario, just protecting U.S. personnel would require offensive operations against Taliban insurgents. And if the Taliban go back to fighting the United States, they would have little reason to sever their remaining ties with al Qaeda as they promised to do in the February 2020 deal—thereby sustaining the very terrorist threat that the United States seeks to counter.

    Finally, the United States wouldn’t be able to maintain bases in Afghanistan purely for its own purposes while withholding operational support from its host and counterterrorism partner. The United States would need to continue providing the Afghan military with at least some essential backup in its existential fight with the Taliban. Absent that support, the Taliban probably wouldn’t sweep rapidly through the country, but the war would intensify and Kabul would lose ground. And if Afghan government forces felt abandoned, the risk of insider attacks against U.S. personnel could rise. In other words, it is impossible to disentangle counterterrorism from counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. If the United States wants to keep any forces at all in the country, it will have to maintain a footprint that looks a lot like “staying the course.”


    The Biden administration should accept that there is no feasible middle way for a “responsible withdrawal.” Washington should instead attempt to reach an agreement with the Taliban to extend the May 1 troop withdrawal deadline—using this step to gauge the group’s commitment to reaching a peace deal that, however unlikely, would be the best outcome for Afghanistan and for the United States. Three months is not enough time to reach any kind of deal—except, perhaps, one that grants extraordinary concessions to the Taliban, relies on support from opportunistic members of President Ashraf Ghani’s political opposition, and involves the United States essentially greenlighting a coup against him. That kind of deal would not leave the United States feeling confident that its security concerns are assuaged.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2021
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  10. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Yes i did. And, other posters have, too. You just don't get it: the choice was war and a massive increase in troops and equipment to fight it. In a country that wanted out after 20 years. To continue fighting an unwinnable war in a tribal country that few want here.

    Or leaving.

    That's it.
     
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  11. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    Yeah let’s just blame anybody but the boob who really made the call. Jeeez
     
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  12. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    I dont think you get it. You seem to think the choice is between continuing fighting an unwinnable war and quickly pulling out the way they have done. Why do you think an exit before making sure our folks are safe was not an option? There were enough troops in place to do the job when Biden took office. And if a couple thousand more were needed they could have easily sent that just like they did 2 weeks ago. You seem to think the US does not have the capability to quickly neutralize threats in order to safely evacuate our people. Just a couple of days ago the military was saying they dont have the ability to go out and retrieve people yet when questioned about it after the french and british did it, all of a sudden the US did it. The fact that the US military doesnt telegraph everything seems to be problematic for some people.
     
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  13. gatormike51

    gatormike51 VIP Member

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    Impeach President Biden? I say NO. Just look at the bench. As my relatives in Ocala would say, "Its not purdy"
     
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  14. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    DONT you get it’s not ending our time there but HOW it was done? Why cant you understand that? Can’t withdraw our troops without getting our civilians out safely. Biden screwed the pootch no amount of spin can change that.
     
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  15. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    Another lib who wants to blame anyone but the one made the call.
     
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  16. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    This is a message board opinion thread not your place to tell someone to be quiet if you don’t like their post.
     
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  17. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Me, a lib? You funny. Trump laid the groundwork and Biden followed through with terrible game plan. Maybe you are the partisan who is unable to or unwilling to acknowledge that both are at fault here
     
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  18. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    You evidently are not following the posting. I am critical of not beginning a withdrawal of those who needed to get out (US citizens and Afghainis) much earlier, by Trump and Biden. Terrible miscalculation of the willingness of the Afghani army to fight and we should not have depended on them. Also, we had to negotiate the current increase in troops and the limits. I am addressing the posters who are complaining about the security consequences of our leaving.
     
  19. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    Biden is incompetent as they come but Harris would be far worse. God help us.
     
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  20. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    No doubt People should have been removed earlier. When Biden took office, we didn’t have troop strength to protect them. The only option was evacuating NGOs, contractors and civilians earlier. Before Trump drew troop strength down to 2500. And earlier in the Biden Administration. I am not talking about this. Again, My questions are directed to those who blame Biden for not repudiating Trump’s surrender agreement and sending more troops to address their security concerns. What do you think Trump meant on his speech June 26? He left so few troops there already that he exposed all of our people there. Which is why Biden should have withdrawn them. They miscalculated the Afghani army and mistakenly depended on that army to defend our people.
     
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