Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by jeffphillips21, Feb 5, 2020.
Can we bottle that success?
What a comeback! I'll happily eat my own words
Don’t get too excited. With this team, they may not score 55 in the next whole game.
Gators went on the scoring surge right after I mused they may not score 50 in the (whole) game....they exceeded that in a half just to shut me up!
Hit a ton of bad shots. We have some very talented players this year.
I actually saw us miss a ton of good shots . . . and began wonderng how talented these players were.
We righted the ship in the second half and made shots 'very talented players' should make.
Tre hit some important good looks . . . ones he misfired in the first half. AN found a mid-range game that was brick city early on, and quit throw lobs into traffic. And Key played like a man.
We were copying the Lady Gators blueprint from a few days ago.
Mid-range shots are almost entirely poor shots (with very rare exception). We took 10, they took 5. Now we made 5 of them (meaning we scored a point a possession on them) while they only made 1, but that is not a consistent winning formula. The likelihood of hitting 50% in a mid-range game is low, especially in college (that is basically a peak Dirk Nowitzky rate). We also made a bunch of threes that were not well set-up by the offense in the second half.
Look at the shot charts for Florida and Georgia. They took shots down low and for three, which are the highest expected value shots. We took a ton of mid-range jumpers and low probability threes when you dig into things like where the pass originated and whether the player was well set to shoot upon receiving the pass.
Glad to win and I enjoyed the comeback, but the need to make that comeback and hit shots at an unsustainable rate are problematic.
I was a bit surprised when they said we were leading the SEC in 3-point percentage in league play. I imagine a lot of the board was absolutely dumbfounded by that.
I don't think this game hurt our percentage.
Our overall offensive numbers have been pretty decent since the early part of the season. Yet so many on the board say they can't stand watching this team. I really don't get it, but to each his own. Hey, I love watching NBA ball, too!
We shot 39.1% from outside tonight. Seems we are still short arming quite a few of our shots but I would have to rewatch to know that for sure.
Not all 'mid range shots' are created equal, yet you are lumping em all together. Of the 10 you reference, 5 were just outside the paint.
If you think a 10' jumper is a poor shot, we just aren't going to agree.
And I totally disagree with your comment about the quality of the threes. If anything UGA was forcing from the arc, but Edwards is virtually un-guardable.
Tre and Key got and made good looks - open looks AND good shots. And they made em.
Game thread must have been fun.
Just looked it up, last 100 NBA shots from 8-10 feet were hit at a 36% rate. Those aren't high percentage/good shots.
While our clip in SEC play has seemed to pick up a bit, on the season overall we are ranked 176th in 3 point percentage at 33.5% (i'm assuming that wouldn't include tonight, but whatever). That is bad. So if we are leading the league, maybe the SEC as a league is just really, really bad shooting this year?
Probably doesn't help our own perceptions that in the two SEC games where we hit the most 3's, (10 vs Missouri, 11 vs LSU), we actually lost both games. We struggled in a couple other SEC games, but won anyway, then earlier in the season we struggled in a bunch of games, and lost embarrassingly (FSU and Butler).
for a guy who is evaluating shots based upon how the pass arrives and if feet are set, etc... you are now blindly using nba statistics.
We can agree to disagree, but if andrew or noah get an good look from 8-10' . . . i want em shooting. And the same for keyontae. Those three combined for 4 of the 5 shots I am referencing.
I understand the metrics of the 3-point shot versus the 2-point shot... and you advocating the former.... but Andrew is 28% from the arc. And if you are going to base shot selection strictly by percentages, you've got quite a riddle to solve. ... as noah and key are the only guys shooting above 32% from distance. I'd like to know who you are allowing to shoot and from where. . .
Some of these ladies in attendance tonight supporting the gentlemen.
Not only that, but momentum plays a factor, if a player is hot, and stays aggressive, keep feeding him. One of the things overly statistical analyses consistently fail to properly evaluate is momentum and edge. The crowd was in it tonight. Great environment for the team!
talk about fickle fans, we are (and I include me) the worse
Jeff, I know your as passionate as I am when it comes to Gator Basketball. I have learned that you have to stay positive even when we are bottoming out. Don’t post until the fat lady sings, “end of the game.” LOL
The first half I was at a sports bar up here near Nashville, sitting by myself, a good tv with espn-u. I was ready to tear down that 50 “ tv and stomp on it, amongst Tenn, Kentucky, Alabama and even some dawg fans, all round me. But I had to say to myself, stay positive and hopefully things can’t possibly be this bad forever. Well guess what, in that last minute, I jumped up and pumped my fist when they kept fouling AN. I said to myself, nothing is bad as it seems and nothing is great as it seems, but this ending, is what all of us want.
Don’t ever give up the faith, we are all in it together! Gators for life!
They said our 3-point percentage in league play was 38%, which is pretty good. That's 1.14 points per possession or the equivalent of shooting 57% on 2-point shots (although less consistent, which we've certainly experienced).
We were just really shooting badly early in the season, which is hard to overcome to get to a good percentage for the whole season. So, to evaluate "where we are", I think it's more instructive to look at the stats from when league play began as that is starting to be a fairly significant sample size from a statistical viewpoint.
But, our KenPom offensive efficiency overall is now up in the 20's, which I believe does include our early season problems (I think we were in the 50's or 60s after the first 8 games or so). Does that mean we've been close to top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency since around the time SEC play started? The "we're unwatchable" crowd would probably find that hard to believe!