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538’s model kicked off

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by oragator1, Jun 11, 2024.

  1. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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  2. enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't believe they have any chance to predict accurately. The last couple elections have shown it really is going to be all about turn out. Using "old school" polling doesn't seem to be picking up on the disconnect between likely voters and actual voters due to how emotionally charged these elections have become.

    If Trump can get his cult to believe it is up to them to save him, and they come out in mass, he wins.

    If Biden (and Trump) can convince the left and moderates that Trump is a threat to Democracy and they come out in mass, Biden wins.

    Right now, unfortunately, I think Donald has the upper hand on voter turnout. Hope I'm wrong.
     
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  3. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Polls are supposed to pick up enthusiasm, it’s largely why Trump has had a small lead. But that’s an issue in every election, predicting intensity is hard.
     
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  4. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Safe bet there won't be any more trials before election day ( thanks to his delay efforts and certain homies having his back), so the legal stuff is pretty much baked in.
     
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  5. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Confirms what has been fairly obvious over the last couple of months. With very few exceptions virtually every poll has been within the margin error (a statistical tie) and recently that's been true for the three most important swing states (PA, MI and WI).
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2024
  6. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    He better if he wants to win. This is looking like it won't be a high turnout election, and due to electoral shifts, Biden and the Democrats have an edge with reliable voters.
     
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  7. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    50/50 seems about right to me. It comes down to 3 states that are virtually a tie. Biden looks ok in 2 and less so in one.
     
  8. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    The X factors are the abortion and weed initiatives. The abortion rights people in particular will not be voting for Trump.
     
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  9. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    I know that polling isn't for everyone, but I love polling season. The methods and analysis are always interesting to me.
     
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  10. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    There is a state by state breakdown further down.
    It’s interesting that he’s got most of swing states closer than the polls show (in both directions). Probably a function of uncertainty and limited polling this far out. So he’s using historical data to fill in the holes.
     
  11. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    Something to ponder.
    When Trump won in 2016, he never once led in the polls.
     
  12. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    doesn’t look good even though they are giving Biden a Very slight advantage at this point …. 538 has under estimated the pubs and over estimated the Dems for the last two cycles…
     
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  13. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Heads the US citizens lose, tails the US citizens lose. We have nominated 2 people unfit for office. Sucks.
     
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  14. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    And all the political noise is ignoring that one party favors women choosing what to do and the other wants to let men make those decisions for them.
     
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  15. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    This is actually somewhat encouraging to me.
     
  16. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Although it didn't matter in the end, Trump lost the national popular vote in 2016 by a close to 3 million vote margin so that national polls weren't wrong. I would add that this time around (and in 2020 for that matter) there is much more focus on the swing state polls which actually matter more than the national polls and that in polls for the three most important swing states (PA, MI and WI) Trump and Biden are within the margin of error or in the other words they're in a statistical dead heat.
     
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  17. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 26, 2007
    Actually 538 slightly overestimated the Repubs in 2022.
    2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
     
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  18. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Sorry, meant their state level / electoral college estimates from 2016 and 2020.
     
  19. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah that is true. But this time I think Trump is the one getting overestimated by the polls. And as we get closer to the election, I think more people are going to realize how insane it is chose Trump for president. I could be wrong, but I just don't think our country is truly stupid enough to elect Trump in 2024.
     
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  20. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    I think you overestimate the level of understanding the country has about the levers of democracy that are threatened (which should disqualify him out of hand) and underestimate how important pocket book and other issues Trump is winning on are.
    Jmo.
     
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