Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

2021 Official 1st Round NFL Bust List

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by GatorLuke, Apr 29, 2021.

  1. GatorLuke

    GatorLuke GC Legend

    Apr 3, 2007
    Is it too early to start a bust list??? I think not.

    So far it has to be one of the QB’s. Statistically it just won’t work out for all of them. I’m going with Trey Lance and Mac Jones as my bust players so far. Trey just doesn’t impress me with his film (besides running) and Jones will likely have 7 players off his team drafted in the 1st round and Bama seems to put QB’s in the league then you never hear of them again (Tua is too early to tell).

    Not sure Travis Etienne is a 1st round back either.

    We shall see.
    • Informative Informative x 2
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  2. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

    Apr 3, 2007
    Head-scratching moves from Round 1

    San Francisco 49ers
    The pick:
    Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State (No. 3)

    Lance is one of the most fascinating prospects I've ever studied, but the 49ers just took my fifth-ranked quarterback at No. 3 overall. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Lance's 318 career passing attempts at North Dakota State are the fewest passes thrown by any first-round quarterback in the past 40 years. That's astonishing, and it points to the risk here.

    I had heard for weeks that Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers were debating between Lance and Mac Jones, and I thought Jones had the edge. He fit the mold of Shanahan's previous successful quarterbacks, including Matt Ryan, as pocket passers who are extremely accurate throwers at every level of the field. Lance, though, is a tremendous passer too. He takes care of the football; he threw just a lone interception in 17 college starts. And he's only 20 years old. Clearly Lance's high ceiling gave him the edge over Jones.

    Still, this pick has to work for the 49ers, who traded up nine spots and mortgaged their future capital to get to No. 3. Can Lance reach his ceiling under Shanahan's coaching? We'll find out soon.
    - Mel Kiper
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. shane4three

    shane4three GC Hall of Fame

    Dec 24, 2014
    Lance threw 30 passes this year and completed 15. And, that wasn’t against even a MAC team.
    • Winner Winner x 1
  4. Spurffelbow833

    Spurffelbow833 GC Hall of Fame

    Jan 9, 2009
    With all the read option the Jags are going to be running, Meyer probably wants Lawrence to have the same guy he's been handing off to for the last three years.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. unclerob

    unclerob Junior

    Aug 14, 2015
    I think it was crazy to spend a first round pick on Trey Lance because he has so little competitive history. He has never even faced top line college talent, and the NFL talent is a big step up from that. He has to rise a whole staircase.
    • Agree Agree x 3
  6. defensewinschampionships

    defensewinschampionships GC Hall of Fame

    Sep 16, 2018
    I don’t think they’ll be running the franchise too many times.
    • Agree Agree x 2
  7. GatorLuke

    GatorLuke GC Legend

    Apr 3, 2007
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. gatorpower

    gatorpower GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 3, 2007
    I am not sure why you're singling these two players out. There are a few guys in the first round who confused me, but I am a computer programmer. I don't get paid to do anything football related.

    RE: both players. Carson Wentz is the reason for the Lance hype train. Both went to North Dakota State, but they played for different coaches. Also, as I've said before, North Dakota State is the Alabama of their division. Moreover, imagine Alabama being Alabama and then 80-percent of the SEC jumped to a different conference so Alabama decided to join the MAC. That is what happened with NDSU. They left a dissolving conference to find refuge in conference filled with Division 1 rejects who sometimes cannot fill 40-man rosters. Suddenly, they can't seem to lose games, winning eight of the last 10 national championships.

    It's weird how scouts sometimes cannot put their ear to the ground and figure this out. You can explain it to them, but there is an strong emotional need getting met through Lance. This is their personal battle with aesthetics, like a man whose "type" is a party girl. Yes, she has a bit of a drug problem. OK, she knows how to walk through every frat house on campus blindfolded, on her hands and knees. She's got daddy issues. She's got things she is working through; courageously, I might add. Have you seen her thicc butt bounce when the beat drops with the mascara and the miniskirt and the those heels though? That is my actual argument. I want to drown in those thighs. Oh, my, god. If I don't put a ring on that, I am going to live the rest of my life in complete indifference. The scouts simp for Trey Lance.

    Also, the scouts trust Jones because Alabama trusted Jones. When you have a school who can recruit anyone they want, then their QB matters. Won a championship? In their eyes, it's like they just got Tom Brady. And Tua is their Carson Wentz. They ignore the other players drafted in the first round. Two wide receivers in the first 10 picks? Well, of course Alabama is going to have that kind of talent. *chuckle* An OT in the first 15 picks? *nervous* A RB in the first 20 picks? *clearing throat* Look, it's Alabama. Next year they'll have 5-6 players also in the first round. You mean, those players were on this years team too? *silence* He was the best passer in their conference though. Oh, he wasn't? *more silence*

    Hey, does anyone else hear DJ Snake and Lil Jon? Crank that music up and dim those lights. Look at our boi Jones on the floor. When he bends at the knee, my heart melts. He is my Waifu. No wait, that's Lance. I can't decide. Players from winning teams get that treatment.

    The sad thing is, had Trask won 2 out of his last 3 games, he would have been in the first round. Winning is defensible. It's always been that way.

    To single those two players out though is to ignore the other 30 players who were likely picked for similarly stupid reasons.

    Travis Etienne is not an NFL running back. He has nice measurables, but he was a reach. He played for Clemson though. The NFL is weird and they are brutal to those players who do not live up to their expectations. If either Lance, or Jones, or Etienne or anyone they picked yesterday does not go onto start games, do you think they'll blame themselves? No. They'll blame the player. No one blames the scouts.
    • Like x 2
    • Best Post Ever x 2
    • Agree x 1
    • Winner x 1
    • Informative x 1
    • Creative x 1
  9. gatorplank

    gatorplank GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 25, 2011
    My prediction: Lawrence and Lance live up to their potential because Meyer and Shanahan can develop QBs. All the other 1st round QBs bust.
  10. 4everaGator

    4everaGator GC Hall of Fame

    Aug 3, 2010
    Central Florida
    • Like Like x 1
  11. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    A lot of Panthers fans up here are scratching their heads. All the offensive needs to try and help SD have a recovery to his career and they chose a DB with a high pick.
    Seemed a big stretch.

    Meanwhile Miami hit two possible home runs so I aa happy!
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. SuperMOM

    SuperMOM All American

    Jan 31, 2016
    Bust List

    Trey Lance - 1AA player that had stats, no better than Trask, when he played for the "Bama" of the 1AA world
    Leatherwood - had a 2nd or 3rd round grade
    Both scUM defensive lineman - both were one year wonders
    Horn from USCe - wasn't that good in college to be a top 10 pick
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. 4everaGator

    4everaGator GC Hall of Fame

    Aug 3, 2010
    Central Florida
    Niner's have taken a huge gamble! They gave up a lot to get the #3 pick and then selected a player with a high ceiling who is basically unproven. Draftniks are idiots rating him that highly. He should be a 4th rounder!

    They gave up their 12th-overall pick, a 2022 third-round compensatory pick and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023!
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 9, 2007
    Upstate, SC
    Hate the panthers pick.

    But my nomination is the BYU Qb.
    He has bust written all over him.
    No way he’s a #2 overall
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

    Dec 3, 2019
    The fsu player picked is my guess....
    • Like Like x 2
    • Funny Funny x 2
  16. shelbygt350

    shelbygt350 GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 3, 2007
    The more time that goes by from the end of the season to the draft the more down the draft a highly productive player drops and the more a less productive player with esteemed measurables rises.

    Mac Jones, with that OL but with an avg one like UF, and without Harris as a RB, is not a first round pick. As a kid, I would say to my buddies, if Whitey Ford pitched for Cleveland or Detroit how good would he be? If Kyle Trask was the Bama qb in 2019 and 2020 what would he have done?

    If I had an NFL team I would avoid small college players in the first and second round. To paraphrase a high school coach when I mentioned to him it was a shame that all world LT Eric Luellen signed with fsu: "How do you know he's any good. He never has faced a quality defensive lineman." Which proved prophetic in a way...he was a bust at fsu.
    • Winner Winner x 1
  17. gator_lyn

    gator_lyn All American

    Oct 28, 2017
    I swear I recognize your tone, from another messageboard, not Gators related
  18. bperkins10

    bperkins10 GC Legend

    May 25, 2007
    Wilson: Did not play any good competition and Jets fans were rip him apart.
    Lance: Poor competition, very little experience and typically when coaches want you to change positions there is a reason for it.
  19. Onewolf

    Onewolf Sophomore

    Nov 13, 2008
    West of Sanford
    I watch T Lance highlights and I don't see a single spiral. It seemed like most of the passes were quacking like ducks.
  20. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

    Apr 3, 2007
    It's amazing what power sports analysts and sports media has on organizations.
    Everyone wants the next Patrick Mahomes and they're seemingly taking imposters.
    • Agree Agree x 2