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19% decline in new home sales for December

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. RealGatorFan

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

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    Well, when you raise rates......higher rates + over-priced homes in overpriced cities like nearly 100% of all urban areas means people aren't buying.
     
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  3. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    Ahh, they're just a research and analytic firm, what do they know? Everybody knows real estate always goes up, right?? :D. Plus, the story is from a libbie socialist propaganda machine that hates trump and wants to take all our guns. :monkey::monkey:
     
  4. sappanama

    sappanama VIP Member

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    i thought new home sales usually decline in december, partly due to the fact that you can't dig a hole in much of the country, hard to get concrete to cure with freezing temps and because a lot of folks are digging out from Christmas shopping for other unnecessarily high priced non needed stuff
     
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  5. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    They weren't completely clear if they were talking about new contracts, or sold and closed homes. New construction, depending on location, weather, etc take a few to several months between contract date and closed date so it would be nice to know which they are using as "sales". December and early January typically are the slow season for new contracts. The contract cancellation rate is a bit alarming.
     
  6. Norcaligator

    Norcaligator GC Hall of Fame

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    The decline was in sales, not construction starts. Also, it was a decline compared to December 2017, not prior months in 2018.
     
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  7. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Could very well be the cause ... regardless, home building puts a lot of people to work and whatever the cause is, it's not a good thing. Other than that, maybe it's not really "the greatest economy in the history of America" if we can't handle normal interest rates.
     
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  8. sappanama

    sappanama VIP Member

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    we need to rid ourselves of the fed, the economy is certainly better than it was , but still way to much manipulation
    "newly built homes"
     
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  9. sappanama

    sappanama VIP Member

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    it is also not the official numbers, according to this site dec was 1% improved over nov though, so maybe it is rebounding ;). also, maybe this will help prevent a "bubble" from the way over priced homes that you see for sale.
     
  10. docspor

    docspor GC Legend

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    & replace it with what?
     
  11. gatorknights

    gatorknights GC Hall of Fame

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    That still does not clarify it, though. It could be a newly built spec that sold and closed quickly, it could be a new contract on a proposed new home that will not close for months, or it could be closed sales of contracts that were written months before closing. It would be nice if they had been more specific.
     
  12. danmann65

    danmann65 GC Legend

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    I bought my home in Deland at the bottom of the cycle for 45000 dollars. Now I am getting stuff in the mail offering to buy my house for 150k. There is a house similar to mine just around the corner that has been on the market for 6 months asking price 239k
     
  13. mutz87

    mutz87 Complexified VIP Member

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    Aren't overpriced cities the (unfortunate, problematical) outcome of capitalism?
     
  14. danmann65

    danmann65 GC Legend

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    I suspect we are going to be in an overbilt situation again soon and prices will come down. The young dont seem to want to own homes. I am not sure if home ownership makes sense anymore.
     
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  15. citygator

    citygator Premium Member

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    It does make sense.... if you want a home.
     
  16. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Funny thing is, when you look at the chart, we are no where near the highs you'd expect to see in a "boom" cycle ... we seem to have finally made our back to the average. Seems like the problem is houses are very expensive and wage growth has been lagging for decades ...

    New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits
     
  17. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    While housing prices have appreciated significantly since the downturn, house building hasn't approached pre-recession levels. Which is one of the reasons that houses are expensive, supply has been constrained on a relative basis for over a decade. particularly where land meets water..
     
  18. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Sales of all homes dropped 16 percent in Northeast Florida, Dec. 2018 vs. Dec. 2017. But December was the month all year where sales declined.

    Permits for new homes continues to be above last year's pace. But that's been rising every year since 2011.
     
  19. grumpygator77

    grumpygator77 All American

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    ...maybe the fact that the jobs that are available to young folks simply don't facilitate the purchase of a home. There has been double digit decrease in young folks even getting a driver's license in the past few years-- let alone a car with the insurance and maintenance costs.
     
  20. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    It's a YOY comparison (December 18 vs. December 17).

    Of course there are still a whole host of issues that can cause fluctuations year over year, so it's just one datapoint. But seems like the trend was mostly down for '18. (purple line for "New Home Sales").

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