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1 week to go until the election - standing in polls/predictions....

Discussion in 'GatorNana's Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gator_fever, Oct 27, 2020.

  1. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    I would have the same map as the 2016 election result if the election was today.

    As of 13:40 with one week to go this is where things stand in the RCP poll averages compared to 2016 on this day.

    National: Biden +7.4% (Clinton +2.2%), at 2 weeks out: Biden +8.6%, at 3 weeks out: Biden + 10%

    FL: Trump + .4% (Trump +1%)
    NC: Biden +1.2% (Clinton +.7%)
    AZ: Biden +2.2% (Trump +2.5%)
    PA: Biden +3.8% (Clinton +6%)
    WI: Biden +5.5% (Clinton +5.7%)
    MI: Biden +9% (Clinton +7%)
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  2. AndyGator

    AndyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Very little has changed over the last few weeks. Trump is still toast. And he'll still bring down the republicans with him.

    Biden wins comfortably.
     
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  3. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 Premium Member

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    The next set of polls will determine a lot. They will be the first post debate polls released.
     
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  4. msa3

    msa3 Premium Member

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    At a minimum, Biden gets PA, NC and Wisconsin. That's enough.

    He probably gets FL and AZ. I think he also gets MI, TX, IA, GA, and I wouldn't rule out Ohio or Kansas.
     
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  5. WC53

    WC53 GC Hall of Fame

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    Never count out momentum and enthusiasm. As much as I would like to
     
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  6. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    2016 the election was 5 days later. What were the polls like a week before the 2016 election?
     
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  7. AndyGator

    AndyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Bidens? Because trump has none.
     
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  8. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    You're still living in the past. Trump has virtually no chance in MI and WI, he's behind in both PA and AZ although he still does have a chance of carrying both states. FL, GA and NC are tossups although if I had to bet I would put them in Trump's column, still not enough to repeat. Turnout among minority and younger voters will be considerably higher than it was in 2016, probably similar to turnout among those groups in 2008. Trump's margin among voters over 65 is going to be no where what it was in 2016 and he may even be trailing among voters in that demographic. White suburban women who voted for Trump in 2016 went Democratic in 2018 and despite Trump's scare tactics they're not coming back to the Donald and even among white males with less than a college education a demographic in which Trump is still comfortably ahead his margin isn't nearly as large as it was in 2016.
     
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  9. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    A Van Down By the River
    You started a new thread to make the same exact prediction you did last week?
     
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  10. WC53

    WC53 GC Hall of Fame

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    I live in red a red part of Florida, he does here. Of course they fly flags year round....
     
  11. kygator

    kygator GC Hall of Fame

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    If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Biden. I also would have put my money on Clinton in 2016 so it's a good thing I'm not a betting man.
     
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  12. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    What I posted was 7 days out
     
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  13. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    The meltdown will be epic either way.
     
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  14. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    That works, you wrote "on this day" so I assumed you meant on this day :)
     
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  15. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump just took the lead in FL with the update.
     
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  16. AndyGator

    AndyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    The panhandle is not even part of Florida. It's southern Alabama all the way. In 2000 they voted W by 84%. Recall overall the rest of Florida was settled by less than 1%.

    But my point is that Trump has no momentum whatsoever right now.
     
  17. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep the momentum in FL is clearly to Trump. Trump winning FL and NC will signal a very long night for the Dems.
     
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  18. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    Florida Early Voting Statistics

    Total Voted: 6,427,773
    Total Voted as Percentage of Registered Voters: 45.7%

    Total Voted by Party Registration
    Party Count Percent
    Democrats 2,685,500 41.8
    Republicans 2,383,218 37.1
    Minor 80,220 1.2
    No P A 1,278,835 19.9
    TOTAL 6,427,773 100.0
     
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  19. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    Don't underestimate Trump's power of persuasion like the media has. He knows what buttons to push in these swing states and he is pushing them in this final stretch.
     
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  20. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    IDK....George has broken through the ice and is steering a pretty good course now.

    [​IMG]
     
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