The only way to win is to support the second most expensive form of energy (behind nuclear) that also happens to be the deadliest form of energy. Cheap and safe is woke!
The problem is the dual mandate. The latest inflation numbers ticked up. Basically, this is now an empirical question of how the deadweight loss of the tariffs will manifest: 1. A more traditional recessionary scenario, where people stop buying things due to tariffs and prices don't increase because of it, allowing the Fed to cut rates. 2. A more inflation-oriented reaction, in which the Fed needs to increase rates to hold down inflation but consumers and businesses keep buying at high rates. 3. A combination of the two, essentially a stagflationary impact. That leaves the Fed with very few options to pursue both mandates and likely leads to substantial instability in the Fed as they fight about which mandate to prioritize (which Trump will use to try to consolidate power). The first data looked like number 1 (e.g., drops in consumer spending but limited changes to inflation), but I think you are seeing signs of number 3 popping up.
WOW! CNN has finally admitted it: Donald Trump is the "most influential president this century." Tariffs. A historic net migration decline. And a ton of executive orders. "Trump's remaking the United States of America." "We can start there with tariffs. What are we talking about? No TACO for Trump. The effective tariff rate, get this, 18%. It is the highest, the highest since the 1930s up from, get this, just 2% last year...I can't think of a more influential president during this century and it starts here with tariffs! He said he was going to raise tariffs and despite the claims otherwise, he is in fact doing that." "The other big thing that Trump ran on was immigration. How about net migration? It's gonna be down at least 60%! We may be dealing with, get this, negative NET MIGRATION to the United States in 2025. That would be the first time there is negative net migration in this country in at 50 YEARS!" "We're talking about down from 2.8 million in 2024." "Already, 180 executive orders signed by Donald Trump this year. You have to go all the way back to the FDR administration once again to find a year in which there were as many executive orders signed as we have this year." "To give you an idea, Biden during his first year signed 77. That's the entire year. We're only a little bit more than halfway through this year." "Love it, like it, or lump it. He has been tremendously influential to a historic degree."
I don’t think anyone has questioned how influential he is, in fact that’s the very concern. The 2 questions that are being asked are whether he is tearing down other institutions for that influence at the long term expense of our democracy, and whether the decisions he is making with that power are good or bad.
I wouldn't be too quick to take this as a point of pride. The most influential world leader of the last century was a German leader who's last name started with a "Hit" and ended with a "ler". He influenced the entire world, just not in a good way. Just because you can start the biggest dumpster fire does not mean you are better than the next person. The economy is starting to go south, even though Trump is busy firing the people that are reporting the bad news. And Epstein seems to be rising from the grave, with MAGA fans digging him up and demanding to know what he has to say.
More winning! The U.S. car market is bankrupting some group of people known as "Americans", and it's getting worse. Interest rates are high, and tariffs and inflation are driving prices even higher. The percentage of people behind on their auto loans is actually worse than it was during the Great Recession in 2008. Keep raising tariffs, Dimwit Donald! That should solve the problem! You know, the one caused by the tariffs. https://moneywise.com/auto/the-us-c...ing-americans-and-its-only-going-to-get-worse
The only good news from that is that it will help reset the insane car market. Used cars will become more reasonable and if people have options then new car prices will have to come down too. The last number I saw is that the average lower income family spent something like 38 percent of its post tax income on transportation. That’s insanity, even if it has been helped by bad consumer decision making. It is also and never was sustainable.
Even better: maybe placing a large tax on cars and their component parts will provide consumers with the opportunity to buy cars that aren't fully loaded for the same price that fully loaded cars used to cost. Or not buying at all.
