(July 2025) Blowout June Payrolls: 147K Jobs Added, Smashing Expectations; Unemployment Rate Drops

My son graduates from Northwestern next June and his decision to get a Masters Degree in mechanical engineering sounds better and better.

 

The CPI is significantly up. And with it, bankruptcy filings have increased by double digit percentage points from last year. Not very promising. I’m hoping Trump will TACO again on the inane tariff wars.

 

So 106K total jobs added the last 3 months? Yikes.

 

You realize that these aren't seasonally adjusted and these patterns happen every year during these months, right? I mean, you would have to go all the way back to March 2024-July 2024 to see a combination of both declining foreign born employment and an increase in domestic employment. I mean, overall job creation was better, but that was still the pattern.

But nice attempt at spinning this.

 

If blowout means what my daughter used to do in her Pampers back in the day then yes, job numbers for the last 3 months have been a blowout indeed.

 

Yeah looking at past years on the graph, there's always a jump in native born employment in July. Makes sense, school's out and summer jobs.

 

Or you could just admit, "These employment numbers may be a concerning trend if they continue."

 

Yep, that is why you can't compare numbers that aren't seasonally adjusted across months. BLS, it should be noted, does not do that and only compares July 2024 to July 2025.

I also like how now jobs held by foreign born people are bad. I would guess that they are trying to claim that "Native Born" people are taking those jobs, but the Employment-Population ratio of Native Born people has actually declined substantially over the last year from 59.5% to 59.1% (which is likely not due to policy but rather the continued aging of the population).

 

The long term chart there.

 

I believe they are going to continue to be concerning for at least a little while. With the chaos and incompetence of the Trump admin, businesses aren't going to be making a lot of long term planning decisions for a while. Unless it's an extreme growth industry (like data centers), who in their right mind would make big expansion plans right now? And the reduction in foreign-born job seekers makes it that much harder to expand.

 

Yeah, college grads usually start their jobs in May, June, or July too.

 

BTW, I think this thread needs a title change to reflect accuracy, of course. It has been established that mods can change thread titles based on future events to reflect their commentary on the topic.

 

I'm sure Bill will get right on it.

 

We are starting to see layoffs in my industry which should be concerning to all of us since it is a leading indicator since we touch manufacturing, discretionary spending, warehouse and transportation.

 

The price of honesty:

Trump Says He’ll Fire Labor Statistics Head After Weak Jobs Data

 

This is one of those Holeeeeee Sheeeeet moments. The idea that Trump is just going to outright lie to us, be our Baghdad Bob, is about as an alarming action from a guy who has encyclopedias of bad acts.

If we are going to be deprived of accurate from our government, then damn … what’s the purpose of the government?

 

From the same guy that wanted to stop testing for COVID just to make the numbers look better, and wanted to stop counting votes in 2020 for the brief moment he appeared to be winning on election night.

It'd be funny (in a depressing sort of way) if the head of BLS publicly offered Trump a sharpie and told him to just draw whatever job numbers he wanted on the report.

 

Should we ever be surprised by anything he does? The more stuff he does, and gets away with, the more emboldened he becomes.

 

Anything that messes with the money surprises me TBH. Plenty of wealthy people are content to let Trump pursue his various vendettas, enrich cronies and degrade democratic institutions, things they don't value or benefit/suffer from to begin with. But turning the economy into a scam? The data the government produces is the basis of so much decision making, and generally speaking its not subject to political whims and is of high quality. If that changes?