Due to budget cuts at a most perilous time. Here is a free link to the Bloomberg article https://archive.ph/2025.07.16-14205...the-most-worrying-economic-chart-in-the-world The share of CPI prices that are now being estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics via imputation. The thing to focus on here is the light blue block. This is the proportion of CPI data that is being calculated by “different-cell” imputation, which the BLS deploys when it’s unable to directly observe a particular price. Imputing figures involves estimating a number based on comparable items, which means there’s an element of judgment involved. And as you can see, the proportion of data being imputed in this way has spiked to 35% in the latest CPI figure for June. It was hovering at 9% as recently as February. This is not exactly an unexpected development, but the speed at which it’s happening is stunning. As discussed in this space last month, the BLS has said it was “reducing sample in areas across the country,” noting that its “current resources can no longer support the collection effort.” It probably bears repeating at this point that things like CPI are incredibly important — and not just to economists (a demographic the world doesn’t seem to care much about). Trillions of dollars worth of inflation-protected US government bonds (TIPs) are linked to them. Social Security payouts are based on them. And the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized its own “data dependency” when it comes to figuring out the path of monetary policy (more on this below from Joe). So if we’re not getting the best and most accurate inflation data possible, that’s a big deal.
Would be interesting to see what exactly they are estimating now. I don't trust anything Trump's crew of liars to come up with, so suddenly having to "estimate" inflation based on who knows what seems rather suspicious. I would bet beef is one of the things being "estimated".
How do they factor in "shrinkflation" where the price of a good remains unchanged but the size of the package is smaller? Groceries continue to climb and I don't need a CPI report to tell me what's on my grocery store receipt year over year.
I've seen indications that we're now in a world where we can create our own statistics and forecasts, (lack of) expertise and actual facts notwithstanding. I'm personally going with some really beautiful Trumpy numbers.
