Tariff Checks

You weren't really a vocal critic of Trump's bill to add $3.5 trillion to the debt for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the rich though, were you?

 

Don't you have your order mixed up?

Trump has/will :

1. Cut taxes for the rich
2. Hope that tariff tax increases on consumers generate revenue
3. Maybe, but probably not, pay down the debt.

 

You have insight to data, and knowledge, that neither the CBO nor Joint Committee on Taxation have? They both have an updated scoring that it will add $3.4T to the debt.

Would you please share with us why their estimates are wrong? Also, I'm pretty sure that impacts from tariffs will take more than 1-2 months to be realized.



What Does the One Big Beautiful Bill Cost? | Bipartisan Policy Center

https://share.google/vI4Sy0cVhChni9Ua8



CBO and JCT estimate OBBB will increase deficits by $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years. That estimate comes from balancing the three major effects of the law:

• The law will reduce federal tax revenues on net by an estimated $4.5 trillion, mostly due to the extension of 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) policies, as well as new tax cuts.

• The law will increase certain federal spending by $325 billion, mostly on the military and immigration enforcement.

• The law will reduce other federal spending by an estimated $1.4 trillion, mostly attributable to changes to Medicaid, SNAP, and federal student loans.

This makes OBBB the most expensive law passed by Congress since the 2012 American Taxpayer Relief Act...

 

Is inflation currently increasing or decreasing?

 

And it shrunk by 0.5% in the first quarter. Why would you ignore that when looking at a long-term projection? Why would you project the average growth rate only using the higher estimates?

 

That is a positive. Of course, remember that in the 1st qtr we saw a contraction of 0.5%. and there was this info in the report: "When it comes to assessing the strength of the economy, a more revealing number tucked into the GDP report is what is known as "final sales to private domestic purchasers," which excludes government spending, inventories and net exports. That number rose at only a 1.2% annual rate from April to May — the weakest since late 2022 and a sign that demand is weakening. "

 

The spending and investment portion of GDP only grew by 1.4%. The rest of it was skewed by Trump's tariff policies. GDP growth was -0.5% in Q1 and 3% in Q2. That's directly because we imported a lot of stuff in Q1 in anticipation of the tariffs and didn't import a lot of stuff in Q2 because of higher inventories (from Q1). We'll see what it is in Q3 after the effect of the tariffs has settled in. But it almost certain won't be as high as 3%.

 

And having seen the responses to your post, how do you feel now? Still more qualified to project US economic growth than the, uh ..... Congressional Budget Office?

Do you also possess greater ability to forecast the US economy AND score legislation than the Joint Committee on Taxation?

On this issue, does it seem like time to choose between either "OK, I was probably mistaken" and "I believe what i choose to believe and don't care about actual facts" ?

 

There are other trade barriers that countries like Canada and the Europeans use against the US to keep American made products from even being sold in their countries. Japan and South Korea have never let American cars enter their nations to be sold and that's been a point of trade dispute since I can remember... before Carter.

And Trump even explained that some of these reciprocal tariffs are calculated using these trade barriers that are NOT conventional tariffs that still cause unfair trade imbalances. Some people in the U.S. think we just don't have anything that other countries want to buy, when the truth is these countries will not let us sell certain products to them... NO MATTER WHAT.