Here are my thoughts about how this settlement (which went into effect on July 1, 2025) might affect college basketball in general and Gator basketball in particular. As of right now, each division one college that opted into the settlement will have about $21 million to pay its players for the 2026-27 season (not counting the cost of scholarships). Most of the power 4 football teams are going to spend the bulk of that money on football players. So, my guess is that no more than $5 million will be spent by UF and other power 4 colleges on men's basketball teams. On a different thread, I estimated that UF would be spending about $12 million on its men's basketball roster for the upcoming 2025-26 season. So there is a big gap to make up. That's where the NIL comes in. NIL money can still be paid by outside parties to college athletes. However, the amount paid by an outside party to an athlete must be limited to the fair market value of the arrangement between the outside party and the athlete. Any of these arrangements with a payment in excess of $600 will be reviewed by an outside enforcement agency that has been hired by the NCAA. That outside agency will be using the Deloitte accounting firm to determine fair market value. In most situations involving UF athletes, it is hard to envision an arrangement being worth even as much as 6 figures for a season. So, it appears to me that the gap I mentioned above cannot be made up in almost every case. To my knowledge, there has been no word from the NCAA regarding what the consequences will be of overpaying NIL money to an athlete. As to non-power 4 colleges, in many, but not all, cases, most of the money paid by colleges to its athletes will go to men's college basketball players. That will not be the case with the non-power 4 colleges whose primary sport is college football, or to a school like UConn which will be paying its football players and women's basketball players. However, that will be the case with most Big East schools and the schools and the schools in several other conferences. In other words, St. John's, Gonzaga and similarly situated schools should be able to spend more money than they ever have before on their men's basketball teams. There is a caveat to the foregoing, however, and that is whether these schools will have the money to pay their players. Many of these schools will have nowhere near $21 million to pay their players, although, in a case like St. John's, I would expect that donors who were, directly or indirectly, paying NIL money to players could instead donate the money to the school to be paid to the players. It should also be noted that the idiots in Congress have been drawing up legislation regarding college sports, and one proposal on the table is to prohibit student fees to be used to fund college sports programs. This proposal could result in many colleges eliminating some of their sports programs. Much still needs to be determined, but it looks like the impact on college basketball described above could be dramatic.
As far as basketball is concerned Duke looks like the big winner here. UNC not far behind. Both brand names and not really football schools. UK has a problem with not appearing as a total joke in SEC football. Same problem for Kansas in a different conference but they will find a way (wink, wink) to solve that problem with Bill Self as coach. Football and basketball schools will need real NIL money. Lots of SEC schools here like UF, Alabama, UT, Arky, Auburn, LSU and to some extent the new UT (Texas) and T A&M. UF lucked out with our Ivy League transfer. Mizzou wants to be both but might be mired in "middle of the pack". Georgia has had some basketball success in the past but football is WAY more important to them and being on the bubble for The Dance seems to be OK for them.
My guess is that even schools like Duke and North Carolina will spend quite a bit more money on their football players than on their basketball players. As for needing real NIL money, I don’t see how the schools get around the fair market value limitation. Interestingly, the NIL money paid to Lee might very well be at fair market value because there might be a large international market in for shoe products associated with Lee.
The litigation on this stuff is far from over. Any denials will be met with lawsuits. Lawsuits the NCAA will inevitably lose. SCOTUS has already told them they can't do what they're trying to do.
No question that there will be lawsuits. If your reference to denials is denials of fair market value of NIL payments being relevant, then, if that type of litigation is successful, the entire settlement is dead in the water, and we will end up with a solution drafted by someone like Marjory Taylor Greene.
I've heard the excuse for the ACC being so pathetic (outside of Duke) this past season was that they were applying the bulk of funds to football so that they could soon match the SEC and Big 10 or 12 in football. I don't much believe it, but there you have it. Anyway, the new landscape is confusing. Lots to get worked out and/or settled in court. Before we gnash our teeth and scream that the sky is falling, consider that UF has the 6th-largest fan base in America (behind Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, and Texas. We have the 3rd-largest student enrollment (behind Tammy and UCF). We are academically the 7th-ranked public university. All these things add up to enormous brain power, and therefore earning power, and therefore spending power, and therefore merch-buying and donation power. We are America's Team. There's no reason, other than potential poor Admin decisions and bad coaches, that UF should fall behind in any of its sports.
Maybe take a page from the Billy D playbook and recruit kids from wealthy families. David Lee and Joakim Noah probably top that list. Both awesome players and never suffered from any need. I bet Al Horford came from a family in good financial shape as well. Teddy Dupay came from a well heeled family but not filthy rich. Save the NIL and now school money for upright kids from poor backgrounds like the Corey Brewers of the world.
Interesting. Taurean Greene’s father also made a good living. I don’t know about Lee Humphrey’s family, but Hubert Humphrey made a good loving.All kidding aside, I saw that the House settlement is likely to be amended to provide that the NIL collectives can enter into contracts with student athletes. I don’t have a clue as to how the fair market value of those contracts would be determined.
Trump has decided to interfere in the process. President Donald Trump signs executive order relating to college sports
I also heard from a reliable source that Trump is going to issue an executive order requiring that all of us change our underwear four times a day, and that we have to wear our underwear on the outside so that they can check. Feel free, if any of you know, to say what movie I stole this post from.
Seems like what Trump is proposing in unconstitutional given the recent SCOTUS ruling with the same 9 siting justices. Wow.
I thought that was a good guess even though I didn't recollect that scene. By Rule 34 if it exists there is a porn movie about it.
Apparently, Trump just issued 2 more executive orders, the first of which is that the official language of the U.S. is immediately being changed to Swedish, and the second is that any girl who was under the age of 18 at the time he did something inappropriate with her is retroactively 18 years old as of the time of Trump’s inappropriate activity. Attached is the video of Trump’s 3 executive orders. Google Search
