What is kind of interesting to watch play out when we think about the potential success or failure of passenger rail is what is happening in China right now. China has made amazing breakthroughs in high speed rail technology, and they have also ambitiously tried to build one of the most impressive high speed rail networks in the world. However, Chinese rail is in big trouble: China massively overbuilt high-speed rail, says leading economic geographer China is speeding toward a US$1 trillion black hole - China Factor China Railway's debt climbs higher even as profits recover China's fast-growing high-speed railway network faces reality - Asia Times.
LOL…don’t tell me you actually think Brightline would be more efficient if it was run by the government. When a company does not have the government to save it that forces the company to be more efficient. Brightline would be less efficient if it was run by the government.
It may not feel that way, but the travel industry is widely seen as being down. Expedia Group said Friday that reduced travel demand in the United States led to its weaker-than-expected revenue in the first quarter, and Bank of America said credit card transactions showed spending on flights and lodging kept falling last month. The two reports add to growing indications that the U.S. travel and tourism industry may see its first slowdown since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic fueled a period of “revenge travel” that turned into sustained interest in getting away. Expedia, which owns the lodging reservation platforms Hotels.com and VRBO as well as an eponymous online travel agency, was the latest American company to report slowing business with both international visitors and domestic travelers. Airbnb and Hilton noted the same trends last week in their quarterly earnings reports. Most major U.S. airlines pulled their full-year financial guidance in April and said they planned to reduce scheduled flights, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. https://apnews.com/article/us-travel-canada-expedia-airbnb-2a8a3be6b78b30a900aacf7a064d8b4c#:~:text=Travelers check American Airlines flight,in their quarterly earnings reports. Things might change in the 2nd quarter, but the 1st quarter was not a good quarter for the travel industry.
I would expect the government would lose money on public transportation rather than try to nickel and dime / cut corners to please investors so they make money, so it would probably be more useful to people the more willing the government is to eat the costs of making it useable and convenient for people to go places. The problem with privatization is that they arent going to do those things to increase ridership or build more infrastructure/stops without public support to attract riders. The private sector has never succeeded at mass transit because its first goal isnt getting lots of people to places quickly, its to turn a profit as quickly as possible.
Complain all you want about capitalism, but what it does well is give people what they are willing to pay for. The profit motive and competition are two powerful forces that drive efficiency in the private sector, and it is often clear how the absence of these forces in publicly funded projects make them less efficient. I will concede roads are also paid for by the government, so it is fair to say that private rail is not competing on a completely level playing field with other government subsidized public transportation infrastructure. You could argue passenger rail also fits in this category as public transportation infrastructure the government could pay for in addition to roads. That is a separate debate, though.
This is a very interesting subject. Your last line is particularly worth considering: private enterprise doesn’t want to deliver a good product, it just wants to make money. I wonder why doesn’t delivering a good product lead to making money? Are people non-discerning when it comes to choosing quick or slow transportation? The Chilean bus system offers a great system to study these kinds of questions. Until 2007, the system was largely private with many small buses competing for ridership. You are correct that it resulted in unwanted outcomes, such as congestion and aggressive driving to beat each other to stops, resulting in many accidents. That, plus the fact that the buses made a profit, turned public opinion against the buses, which resulted in the Transantiago bus system. Unfortunately, by most accounts, the Transantiago bus system has been a tremendous failure. It did solve the problem of buses aggressively competing for riders, but it introduced its own set of problems. For one, now that the profit motive was gone, the busses no longer had to cater to the desires of people. In many cases, the buses didn’t even stop to get the riders waiting at stops, because the main priority was keeping the busses on time. The central planning of routes is one of the toughest problems for public transit. The private busses often did this weird thing of exactly following the underground metro lines. The government leaders believed it was unnecessary to duplicate those routes and eliminated them. This ended up a huge mistake as well, as the metro simply couldn’t handle these riders. In the end, the bus system was so bad, it made congestion worse, as almost everyone just started taking their cars again. Mike Munger has a great article on this that includes many more fascinating details: Planning Order, Causing Chaos: Transantiago - EconlibPlanning Order, Causing Chaos: Transantiago - Econlib
It sounds like Brightline is trying to expand service to Tampa from Orlando. A train between Tampa and Orlando could be nice: Brightline is moving forward on a Tampa station. When will it be here?
That's not quite what I said. I said their first priority was making money as quickly as possible, even if they are dedicated to delivering a good product. Something like mass transit probably doesn't become profitable for 10-20 years if ever, and who's willing to sink the money into an investment with only theoretical long-term gain involved? Even if they deliver a good product up front, if the profits don't follow, cost cutting measures quickly follow, enshitifying the good product you delivered. Like who didnt like Uber the first few years? Impossibly cheap rides, but eventually the bill came due and now its $40 to get to the airport, probably about the same as a Taxi in the before times. As to your other things, there are plenty of ways for the government to make mass transit unpleasant or inefficient. For the most part a lot of those ways involve cost-saving measures. Which certainly governments are not immune to, particularly ones that have limited resources and prioritize other things like cops, prisons, handing incentives to developers/businesses or whatever.
I've done the Fort Lauderdale to Orlando round trip close to 10 times. Between WPB and Orlando, the trains I've been on are usually 90%+ full.
