(June 2025) U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected

Tell that to the Feds who held rates steady and are more inclined to not cut rates at all.

I'd fire Jerry Powell and Austin Goolsby (Pres of Chicago Fed Reserve Bank). Nope, no politics involved with this Fed.

 

Pretty reasonable position to take.

 

Can you say "stagflation"?
The Fed Isn’t Calling It ‘Stagflation,’ but the Risks Are Rising
President Trump’s trade war is likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth, a challenging combination for the Fed. War in the Middle East could make the job harder still.

 

So you think we are in a recession?

Powell was appointed by Trump.

 

It brings up an interesting question. Should the fed try to fight inflation that is directly caused by taxes? So if we had a nationwide 5% tax put in all at once, would it make sense for the fed to try to fight that with higher rates?

 

I’ve heard Powell say that it’s a balancing act, but that he would lean towards supporting economic growth (cutting rates) vs fighting inflation (raising rates). Basically implying that an elevated inflation rate is better than a crash in the economy.

 

Economists will often say this, but they forget how badly people hate inflation and how disruptive it is. I’ve always viewed the Fed’s role as primarily to fight inflation - not to create jobs by expanding the money supply.

 

Uh oh, it's started. Inflation up to 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month in June.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/business/cpi-report-inflation-june.html

 

Will you be updating us?

 

Sure. I assume you prefer to go back to this under Biden.

 

So what you're telling me is telling me is that Trump is trending in the wrong direction

 

It probably takes more than a year to completely get rid of the Biden effect. But also, it was never going to be a straight, linear decline. Biden was awful tho.

 

Trump said he would lower grocery prices but it appears that you are calling him a liar

 

Biden and his advisors were dealt a difficult hand with COVID and the post COVID supply chain issues. While inflation was high here, our inflation rate rose at a much smaller rate than international averages. Biden also guided the economy to a post COVID soft landing, avoiding a post COVID recession that many countries did not.

Current international inflation rates are around 4%, but are falling while our rates are rising. Canada's rate is currently 1.9%, and that's after Trump's tariffs. Demand in the US is also falling, which should mean lower inflation, but again, ours is rising.

And inflation is expected to get worse in the short term. June was just the start of companies being impacted by tariffs, as companies front loaded supplies pre tariffs, but that stock has either run dry or is about to. We should also feel the effect of immigrant labor shortages as food prices will rise because crops are being left in fields instead of being harvested.

So yes. If rather have Biden and his staff in charge. It isn't just about the raw numbers. Do some analysis, and Biden didn't do a bad job under difficult circumstances. Trump is doing a bad job under solid conditions.

 

(whoever was manning the auto pen was awful)

 

And it's just the beginning of a trend very likely to occur over many months. I would also add that the inflation under Biden was in part the result of the Covid stimulus payments in 2020 and 2021 supported by both Biden and Trump and in the case of Trump actually opposed by members of his own party.

 

Yeah it's just the beginning. I think the inflation will be somewhat counteracted by the coming recession.

 

Inflation surged in June amid tariffs as Trump declared 'inflation is dead'

 

Today's higher than expected inflation report didn't stop Trump from pleading for a 3-point interest rate cut! What's more likely is the FED isn't going to cut at all, because inflation is still over target, and growing, with July expected to be as bad, if not worse than June.

On a more personal note, I would love the Feds to cut the interest rate. Considering purchasing a second home and higher interest rates are holding us back. Not a great investment right now in both our opinion, and the opinion of our financial advisor. A 3 point rate cut would likely change that math, but also cause massive stagflation, which would likely change the math even more.

 

I guess Trump believes in the Erdoganomics school

https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2022/05/17/the-breakdown-of-erdoganomics/

One of the most rudimentary principles taught about monetary policy is that inflation rises when interest rates are low because people can spend more, causing the economy and thus inflation to grow. Going against conventional wisdom, Turkish President Erdogan has taken the hardline approach of keeping interest rates low and cutting interest rates in the face of astronomical inflation rates, a practice that has been dubbed “Erdoganomics”.