MoneyWatch The Trump tariffs aren't causing U.S. prices to spike.

Because he TACO'd on most of them.

 

Yup .. but they still expect rapid inflation if he ever stops TACO’ing….

“Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, thinks prices are likely to rise as tariffs gradually push up import costs in the second half of the year.”

 

Are you just going to ignore the taco portion?

 

Trump's tariff revenue is on pace for another monthly record in June

So record revenue and no inflation. Gas a 4 year low and stock market at all time high. And once again the left has to root against the policies working because it’s Trump.

 

Ha. You want so bad for the nickname
taco to stick even after the tariffs that trump is supposedly too chicken to impose are bringing in record revenue and the same Iranian terrorist regime that Obama flew cash and Biden gave 100b in oil revenue, the chicken Trump ended in one military strike. Something ironically after 12 years of Obama and Biden they were too ‘chicken’ to do. But sure. Keep calling him taco. Yawn

Trump's tariff revenue is on pace for another monthly record in June

Compared that to sleepy joe where Joe actuallly falls asleep on multiple occasions in Public. Now that’s a legit nickname

 

What do you mean “the argument that will be made?”. According to your own quote, retailers were highly pro-active at getting ahead of and avoiding tariff costs through the various levers they had.

It was barely a month ago there were reports of the ports being empty for crying out loud!

In either case, at the 145% rate we saw what that was going to do, total cessation of trade. Port activity compared to global pandemic conditions. Are ports back to normal level of operations now? If so that would be good (or at least far less disastrous then seeing it compared to a global pandemic) - but I wouldn’t be spiking the football on tariff impacts until there is a firmer grasp of things than a one month flip-flop.

 

The article misses a fairly obvious one: demand effects. What you are seeing is drops in spending. When consumers buy less stuff, prices are held down.

Retail sales are down 0.9% in May: Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, worse than expected, as consumers pulled back

New home sales are down 13.7% in May: Sales of new homes tanked in May, pushing supply up to a 3-year high

US exports are down 5% in May: US trade deficit surges despite Donald Trump's tariffs

US services sector moved into contraction in May: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...oRv-fV5tstnuDUiW4tY3QL_vjmDxni215ocH7R-JeRQ==

It should be noted that inflation actually was increased over the last month. But a lack of demand means that companies are not able to raise prices much, even as their input prices increase. They will just make less stuff.

 

It all shows me the economy is a strong entity that fights back against whichever moron is trying to control it. Well at least until the foundation is eroded.

 

Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs? - Apollo Academy

This guy was a staunchly against trumps tariffs

 

I actually don’t think Trump believes in tariffs per se, just uses them the same way he uses the legal system and tweets. They are just a tactic to get something he wants. Difference is he is willing to risk blow up larger systems for a “win” where others were not.

It will probably be over a year before we have accurate data on how everything shakes out.

I am still a believer in you aren’t shit if you don’t make shit. Jobs for stock prices is a loser in the long term.

 

To be fair, just like retailers did maneuvers like channel stuffing - supposedly consumers did quite a bit of that too. So it isn’t necessarily “demand destruction” (yet) as the flip side of that tariff pull-ahead effect. Good luck to any economist trying to actually figure any of that out right now.

 

Said so yesterday in the New Housing Market Bust Thread when I added the PCE. Of course, I was roundly booed for saying the truth which is tariffs haven't been inflationary and aren't inflationary. I used a staunch democrat in Austin Goolsby the President of the Chicago Fed Reserve bank and a top adviser of Obama. Me they booed yet said nothing about one of their own saying the same exact thing.

 

There was some front loading, which is what held up the April numbers to avoid decreases, for the most part in April. You are right that there is some trough effect in May, where spending drops to lows after a spike for some reason. But the decrease seems to be spread wider across sectors than the front loading was. People front loaded a few categories (appliances, cars, major expenditures), but seem to be cutting back across the board in the face of uncertainty.

 

Austan Goolsbee (that is actually how you spell his name) did not say that tariffs aren't inflationary. In fact, unlike the small increase in inflation that we saw last month, an across the board decrease in spending would usually put a ton of downward pressure on prices.

 

Well that month was the “sell
America” trade where financial markets across the board (including bonds and currency) were starting to look fractious, so that makes sense. In June, after Trumps flip-flop, the financial markets almost fully came back. So economic data could/ should look better just based on that lack of a fear trade to bring it back to more neutral. In either case it’s just totally wild anyone’s takeway after all that is “SeE tArIfFs wOrK!!!@. I mean… seriously?

 

all fair points. What I do believe is that he loves to negotiate. He's been talking about other countries taking advantage of us with trade for decades….long before his presidential run. You say, he isn’t afraid to blow it up as if that’s a bad thing. We’ve been getting bent over for decades and I for one and all for blowing up these old trade and military agreements. Yes it takes time to realign the entire global trade order. I’m old enough to remember all the leftist in academia and media scoff at Trump lambasting our ‘friends’ and allies. Fasr forward and he was right about all of it and I’m glad he is blowing all that up. Articles from 2017 below

Trump slams Germany at NATO summit: It's 'totally controlled by Russia'

Donald Trump tells Nato allies to pay up at Brussels talks - BBC News

 

Wasn’t calling blowing it up good or bad. As we get more data points, then that determination can be made, by me

 

ok. Watching the media and academia intellectual class all aghast at how Trump was ‘treating and talking about o our allies’ when he excoriated Germany for 1. not paying for their own defense, and 2. pointing out the lunacy that Germany wants us to spend our money to defend them against a country they are sending billions for energy…. And as the data comes out 8 years later that Trump was accurate / spot on with his predictions and assessment. Now Trump takes out Iranian nuclear program and consequently treated like royalty at NATO for projecting strength from the US just as he said he would. And not coincidentally, NATO countries take their defense budget from 2% to 5%. Again something the left made fun of him for even suggesting 8 years prior. So yeah. I’m all for blowing up all prior agreements

 

The problem I see with the political score board shit right now is it’s all focused on immediate term outcomes. Both sides do this but trumpers have been extra guilty of it. I’m absolutely rooting for things to work out - I live here after all, am in prime earning years, and want to do well. I think some of us are more worried about the long term compared to the immediate term outcomes. Maybe I’m wrong idk I can’t speak for everyone but that’s where I’m at.