Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

U.S. May Have Only Five Years of Oil Left

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by chemgator, Jun 21, 2025 at 10:07 AM.

  1. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

    9,957
    1,052
    2,843
    Apr 16, 2007
    Peak oil theory is kind of like the Laffer Curve. At its core both are “theories” that are correct in the opaque, but both were put forth by obvious ideologues and both are utterly useless because they don’t pinpoint specifics. Laffer never bothered conceiving an “optimal” taxation rate, instead it was 0% or 100% and we get tripe like “tax cuts always pay for themselves” that the zombies lap up every time. The failing of the guy who conceived peak oil is that he didn’t conceive new extraction technologies or new oil discoveries.

    In either case the last I really recall anyone even talking “peak oil theory” was W’s years when oil/gas spiked before the financial crisis. Fracking was a technological advancement that shifted that down the road by decades.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

    8,860
    963
    558
    Apr 13, 2007
    outstanding post.

    Conservatives once pushed for “all sources” of U.S. energy. Now Trump, and then MAGA, are not only pulling back from alternatives but actively slowing their development. China doesn’t politicizing energy and think of alternatives as “woke”, they use everything. The U.S. will fall behind, especially in areas like powering AI.
    Trump is weakening our country.



    Side note - the oil industry provided $100s of millions in supporting Trump and others favorable to their industry.

    “a dinner where Trump told energy executives they should raise $1 billion to support his return to the presidency and that doing so would be a “deal””

    Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request




    “These investments are “likely to pay dividends”, the report says, with Republicans holding control of the White House, House and Senate – as well as some key states. Trump unleashed dozens of pro-fossil fuel executive actions on his first day in office and is expected to pursue a vast array of others with cooperation from Congress.”

    Big oil spent $445m in last election cycle to influence Trump and Congress, report says
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
  3. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

    8,860
    963
    558
    Apr 13, 2007
    The OP specifically referenced the US. Its not some wild prediction…..

    • “Travis Stice, CEO of Diamondback Energy. In a letter to shareholders, he said flatly: “It is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter.” Stice isn’t the only one sounding the alarm.
    • At this year’s CERAWeek in Houston, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said she expects U.S. oil production to peak between 2027 and 2030.
    • ConocoPhillips chief Ryan Lance gave a similar timeline.
    • Harold Hamm, the founder of Continental Resources—never one to shy away from a bullish forecast—also acknowledged the slowdown”
    Peak Oil In America: ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ May Be Hitting A Wall


    “U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday”

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM
  4. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

    9,957
    1,052
    2,843
    Apr 16, 2007
    [​IMG]
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  5. ridgetop

    ridgetop GC Hall of Fame

    2,395
    818
    1,848
    Aug 4, 2020
    Top of the ridge
    So not worried . The world will end in 2031 anyways. Well at least according to AOC.
     
    • Creative Creative x 1
    • Off-topic Off-topic x 1
  6. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

    1,601
    378
    1,973
    Feb 1, 2012
    Lmao
    Peak oil - Wikipedia

    How much tax money do we need to pay to save us from peak oil?
     
  7. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

    15,096
    2,167
    1,318
    Apr 3, 2007
    As much as it takes to get Americans to give up their gas-hogging SUV's, monster trucks, sports cars, etc. and start buying hybrids and EV's. We have the technology to get 50+ mpg, yet we only get 26 mpg or so.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  8. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

    1,601
    378
    1,973
    Feb 1, 2012
    Make them into a competitive product then if you want people to use them. At least you admit the real agenda is to tax others who have more than you because you don't agree with them.
     
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 3
  9. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

    15,096
    2,167
    1,318
    Apr 3, 2007
    Has nothing to do with who has what. I could easily afford a sports car, giant SUV, AND a monster truck (I'm a chemical engineer, remember?). The point is to make our natural resources (like oil) last longer as we transition into alternatives. I want the U.S. to have a future as bright as it is now, not a decades-long transition period into mediocrity. If the oil starts running out (and it appears that it will, and soon), we will not be able to make fuel efficient cars and SUVs fast enough to transition without a major hit to the economy. By major hit, I am talking about possibly another Great Depression. We will take down the civilized world with us, as we buy up all the available oil on the global market (which will still not be enough for our needs), while the rest of the world does without (unless they have already transitioned to EV's powered by solar and wind energy).

    Also, when we run out of oil, the chemical industry in the U.S. will basically disappear. You might be surprised how much the U.S. economy is intertwined with chemicals. You can't run a modern hospital without plastics, for example.

    And, for the record, I do not currently drive an EV or a hybrid, so I am not trying to justify a vehicle that I already have. Hybrids were relatively new (in the Toyota lineup, which I tend to buy for reliability) the last time I bought a new vehicle. I think my next vehicles will probably be hybrids. So, yes, this tax would initially be a burden on me just like it would be for everyone else. If its the right thing to do, it's the right thing to do.
     
  10. WC53

    WC53 GC Hall of Fame

    5,563
    1,093
    2,088
    Oct 17, 2015
    Old City
    Half this board has 5 years of oil left. Math works.
     
  11. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

    10,432
    1,370
    3,218
    Apr 3, 2007
    lol, I’ve seen this economic argument go both ways in this thread now and both are equally misplaced.

     
  12. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

    1,601
    378
    1,973
    Feb 1, 2012
    No I have no idea what you do for a living. This is an internet forum I don't know any of you.

    Why not use your clearly superior intelligence to figure out how to make it a competitive product? If you're smart enough to know what's best for all of us you are definitely smart enough to design a competitive vehicle. If not, why do we think you're smart enough to create moral policy and decide what's best for us?

    Since you don't adhere to your own morals, do you currently buy carbon credits and donate money to the government to fight peak oil or are you just virtue signaling while asking the government to force people to agree with you?

    Maybe start using a horse they're environmentally friendly, fast, and fitting

    [​IMG]
     
  13. DawgFanFromAlabam

    DawgFanFromAlabam GC Hall of Fame

    2,620
    361
    328
    Apr 18, 2007
    Drill baby drill!!
     
  14. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

    3,824
    321
    148
    Feb 4, 2024
    chemgator votes for Democrats that deliberately explode the US population by pipelining millions upon millions of illegals into our country. That makes our resources run out faster.

    Welcome to the Idiocracy indeed
     
  15. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

    15,096
    2,167
    1,318
    Apr 3, 2007
    The vehicles are already out there, but there isn't enough financial incentive to persuade the average American to buy them. Raising the price of gas through gas taxes will provide the incentive as well as bringing attention to the issue. Raising the gas tax gradually prevents panic and minimizes damage to the economy. Doing nothing will not prevent the price of gas from increasing. After we hit peak oil again, gas prices will soar. The only difference is that your money will be going to governments in places like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, instead of going towards maintaining your highways, building high-speed rail, and other transportation projects. And when the price of gas increases, the price of everything (that does not come to you through the internet) increases. Transportation costs go sky high.

    Guess what? You're a freeloader. (We all are.) If you drive on U.S. highways, then you are by definition a freeloader. We pay $0.18/gal federal tax on gasoline. The same as what we paid in 1992. Inflation has increased the cost of maintaining highways by at least double. Yet we have been unable to increase the gas tax to cover those costs. If you need to take a first step towards doing the right thing, you should at least be willing to stop being a freeloader. You should be willing to pay an additional $0.18 - $0.25/gallon on gasoline to cover the cost of maintaining the roads. So write your congressman and demand that they double the gas tax to pay for highway maintenance. Then we can talk about peak oil and why the gas tax should keep going up from that point.

    Keep your horse and keep him healthy--you may need him to get you places in another decade or so. Only the wealthy will be able to afford gasoline.

    This is not about "morals". This is about oil and oil products, including gasoline, running out (effectively) in the next decade or so. This is about reality, something you might want to look into. You do not want to get into a bidding war with chemical plants for the last bit of oil left, I assure you. :)
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  16. flgator2

    flgator2 GC Hall of Fame

    7,808
    847
    2,613
    Apr 3, 2007
    Gainesville
    Windmills are junk
     
  17. Spurffelbow833

    Spurffelbow833 GC Hall of Fame

    9,953
    880
    1,293
    Jan 9, 2009
    If this is true, why worry about only eight years of Social Security?
     
  18. studegator

    studegator GC Legend

    792
    261
    1,918
    Feb 24, 2008
    Been hearing/reading about “peak oil” since before Jimmy Carter, will probably be reading about it for the rest of my life. Why we can’t have a “mix” of energy where it makes the most sense is beyond me. In here it is all or nothing—-
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  19. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

    1,601
    378
    1,973
    Feb 1, 2012
    We've been at peak oil since 1919. Good luck with your tax agenda.

    The financial incentive to buy a thing is that thing being a good product. The fact you think this isn't about forcing your own (hypocritical I might add) morals and ideas on others to force them to buy a subpar product that aligns with your (hypocritical) opinion of what people should do is telling.

    You've got to be the most uppity guy I've spoken to on these forums. Trying to force ideas on others that you don't even practice, then calling me a freeloader meanwhile having no idea if I bike commute, drive an electric car, work from home, or if I do pay extra because you didn't ask, you assumed. For all you know I pay 100% of my disposable income to highway maintenance. Meanwhile everything I say about you here is factual from what you've stated.

    You and people like you are the reason nobody likes your agenda btw. I love the environment, bike commute anytime I can with reasonably safe roads, and drive a tiny sedan that gets nearly 40 mpg, and still don't think I have the right to do anything other than encourage others to do better, I sure don't think my agenda should be forced upon them.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2025 at 9:00 AM