U.S. May Have Only Five Years of Oil Left

BLING · Jun 22, 2025 at 8:43 AM

AgingGator said: ↑

Peak Oil is a mostly meaningless term, a catchphrase The parties that promote such an idea are work an agenda, their own agenda. I never discount the ingenuity of humans to figure things out and make them work. Catch phrases like peak oil only exist to manipulate public opinion so as to allow it to allow their government to fleece them and waste the tax revenue to “save” something. The worst part is how many people buy the horseshit and sit by and watch the same people who lied to them line their pockets with taxpayer $.
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Peak oil theory is kind of like the Laffer Curve. At its core both are “theories” that are correct in the opaque, but both were put forth by obvious ideologues and both are utterly useless because they don’t pinpoint specifics. Laffer never bothered conceiving an “optimal” taxation rate, instead it was 0% or 100% and we get tripe like “tax cuts always pay for themselves” that the zombies lap up every time. The failing of the guy who conceived peak oil is that he didn’t conceive new extraction technologies or new oil discoveries.

In either case the last I really recall anyone even talking “peak oil theory” was W’s years when oil/gas spiked before the financial crisis. Fracking was a technological advancement that shifted that down the road by decades.

PITBOSS · Jun 22, 2025 at 11:11 AM

chemgator said: ↑

I mentioned this issue in a couple of other threads, but it is important enough to get its own thread.

The U.S. may reach "peak oil" in as little as five years (I've seen another estimate of 7 years, and a crazy estimate of 227 years). We are extracting more than ever before, and we are using more than ever before. After five years, we will start importing oil from other countries, and the price will go up. We will also be subjected to things like oil embargoes, like we had in 1973. Long lines of cars waiting at the gas stations for the gas tanker truck to show up. Rationing of gas means you can only buy a few gallons at a time. We can get back to where we were in the 1970's, paying 11% of our income for transportation. Our economy will be affected negatively, and our GDP will suffer, and our federal debt will increase dramatically, eventually triggering massive inflation.

Was this necessary? Of course not. We have had relatively weak leadership on this issue from democrats for decades now. We have had no leadership on this issue from republicans. The republican position on conserving oil (as a "conservative" should be willing to do) is exemplified by "Drill, Baby, Drill".

Is the issue too complex to solve? Of course not. We have technology that converts sunshine into battery energy that drives cars, and we have technology that could nearly double the fuel efficiency of the cars we drive. On top of that, we have done little to discourage the trends towards larger and more powerful vehicles that use more fuel.

What should we be doing right now? Taxing the hell out of gasoline. Make people pay for it if they want to drive a monster truck or oversized SUV getting 12 mpg. That's a small slap in the face compared to getting all of your teeth knocked out in five years. Increase the gas tax gradually, like $0.05 every 3 months, and it will not be a total shock or cause panic or upset to the economy. Prevent it from hurting the working poor by increasing minimum wage (again, gradually). Same with SS COLA. To a person driving an average 12,500 miles a year in a car getting an average 25 mpg (using 500 gal of gas), the price of gas will go up $100 a year. Is this enough to change America's atrocious driving habits? I don't know. But we need to do something soon if we don't want to return to the early 1970's.

Doing nothing is not an intelligent option. If we allow ourselves to become dependent on OPEC and Russia again, we're screwed and our days as a superpower are numbered. And that means that civilization on earth is screwed. So if you don't support "Tax, Baby, Tax", then you support the alternative, "Kneel, Baby, Kneel" and you should buy a small bust of Putin and another one of the current Saudi king, so you can pray to them to not take too much of your money. The only other option I can think of is to invade Russia and the other oil producers and take their oil, which sounds like a solution our own Dear Leader might come up with (but would probably end very badly).

United States Oil Reserves, Production and Consumption Statistics - Worldometer

Oil Reserves
35,230,000,000 barrels
Global Rank: #11 | Share of World: 2.13%
5 years of oil left
(at current consumption levels)
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outstanding post.

Conservatives once pushed for “all sources” of U.S. energy. Now Trump, and then MAGA, are not only pulling back from alternatives but actively slowing their development. China doesn’t politicizing energy and think of alternatives as “woke”, they use everything. The U.S. will fall behind, especially in areas like powering AI.
Trump is weakening our country.

Side note - the oil industry provided $100s of millions in supporting Trump and others favorable to their industry.

“a dinner where Trump told energy executives they should raise $1 billion to support his return to the presidency and that doing so would be a “deal””

Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request

“These investments are “likely to pay dividends”, the report says, with Republicans holding control of the White House, House and Senate – as well as some key states. Trump unleashed dozens of pro-fossil fuel executive actions on his first day in office and is expected to pursue a vast array of others with cooperation from Congress.”

Big oil spent $445m in last election cycle to influence Trump and Congress, report says

PITBOSS · Jun 22, 2025 at 11:17 AM

The OP specifically referenced the US. Its not some wild prediction…..

“Travis Stice, CEO of Diamondback Energy. In a letter to shareholders, he said flatly: “It is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter.” Stice isn’t the only one sounding the alarm.

At this year’s CERAWeek in Houston, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said she expects U.S. oil production to peak between 2027 and 2030.

ConocoPhillips chief Ryan Lance gave a similar timeline.

Harold Hamm, the founder of Continental Resources—never one to shy away from a bullish forecast—also acknowledged the slowdown”

Peak Oil In America: ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ May Be Hitting A Wall

“U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/

BLING · Jun 22, 2025 at 11:45 AM

PITBOSS said: ↑

The OP specifically referenced the US. Its not some wild prediction…..

“Travis Stice, CEO of Diamondback Energy. In a letter to shareholders, he said flatly: “It is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter.” Stice isn’t the only one sounding the alarm.

At this year’s CERAWeek in Houston, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said she expects U.S. oil production to peak between 2027 and 2030. ConocoPhillips chief Ryan Lance gave a similar timeline. Harold Hamm, the founder of Continental Resources—never one to shy away from a bullish forecast—also acknowledged the slowdown.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration still forecasts record output this year, but the pace of growth has clearly slowed. The major shale plays are maturing. Easy drilling locations are becoming harder to find. And companies are increasingly deploying capital elsewhere, including into lower-carbon assets.”

Peak Oil In America: ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ May Be Hitting A Wall

“U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/
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ridgetop · Jun 22, 2025 at 1:27 PM

So not worried . The world will end in 2031 anyways. Well at least according to AOC.

partdopy · Jun 22, 2025 at 1:51 PM

Lmao

In 1919, David White, chief geologist of the United States Geological Survey, wrote of US petroleum: "... the peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years.
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Peak oil - Wikipedia

How much tax money do we need to pay to save us from peak oil?

chemgator · Jun 22, 2025 at 3:52 PM

partdopy said: ↑

Lmao

Peak oil - Wikipedia

How much tax money do we need to pay to save us from peak oil?
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As much as it takes to get Americans to give up their gas-hogging SUV's, monster trucks, sports cars, etc. and start buying hybrids and EV's. We have the technology to get 50+ mpg, yet we only get 26 mpg or so.

partdopy · Jun 22, 2025 at 4:06 PM

chemgator said: ↑

As much as it takes to get Americans to give up their gas-hogging SUV's, monster trucks, sports cars, etc. and start buying hybrids and EV's. We have the technology to get 50+ mpg, yet we only get 26 mpg or so.
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Make them into a competitive product then if you want people to use them. At least you admit the real agenda is to tax others who have more than you because you don't agree with them.

chemgator · Jun 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM

partdopy said: ↑

Make them into a competitive product then if you want people to use them. At least you admit the real agenda is to tax others who have more than you because you don't agree with them.
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Has nothing to do with who has what. I could easily afford a sports car, giant SUV, AND a monster truck (I'm a chemical engineer, remember?). The point is to make our natural resources (like oil) last longer as we transition into alternatives. I want the U.S. to have a future as bright as it is now, not a decades-long transition period into mediocrity. If the oil starts running out (and it appears that it will, and soon), we will not be able to make fuel efficient cars and SUVs fast enough to transition without a major hit to the economy. By major hit, I am talking about possibly another Great Depression. We will take down the civilized world with us, as we buy up all the available oil on the global market (which will still not be enough for our needs), while the rest of the world does without (unless they have already transitioned to EV's powered by solar and wind energy).

Also, when we run out of oil, the chemical industry in the U.S. will basically disappear. You might be surprised how much the U.S. economy is intertwined with chemicals. You can't run a modern hospital without plastics, for example.

And, for the record, I do not currently drive an EV or a hybrid, so I am not trying to justify a vehicle that I already have. Hybrids were relatively new (in the Toyota lineup, which I tend to buy for reliability) the last time I bought a new vehicle. I think my next vehicles will probably be hybrids. So, yes, this tax would initially be a burden on me just like it would be for everyone else. If its the right thing to do, it's the right thing to do.

WC53 · Jun 22, 2025 at 6:18 PM

Half this board has 5 years of oil left. Math works.

demosthenes · Jun 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM

partdopy said: ↑

Make them into a competitive product then if you want people to use them. At least you admit the real agenda is to tax others who have more than you because you don't agree with them.
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lol, I’ve seen this economic argument go both ways in this thread now and both are equally misplaced.

demosthenes said: ↑

Taxation changes behavior. A lot of poor people smoked cigarettes before we started taxing the hell out of them. We should be moving away from burning oil in cars for energy independence, health, and climate reasons. Seems like pretty good reasons to change behaviors.
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