CBO Releases Report on Trump/House Bill

It’s A1, sir. Get it right.

 

Trump exaggerates tax bump from allowing 2017 law to expire

 

^ Lol. 9.3B in "first round" cuts. Huge.

Ever seen the size of the US budget?

 

Anyone know if there is an entity that's performed any regular analysis of CBO projections against what actually happened subsequent to the projection? What is the accuracy of the CBO in its projections?

 

The CBO is usually as accurate as other non-partisan economic advisors. It;s not an exact science but why it has been used for nearly 50 years. Obviously the partisan estimates have (had) much less reliability hence the formation of CBO.

 

Has there been any bone fide analysis of the CBO’s accuracy or is it just accepted that it’s most accurate because it is a government agency and, ostensibly, nonpartisan?

Of course any analysis of the CBO’s accuracy could be questioned given the possible bias of any entity evaluating the CBO. Given the problems experienced with analysis and reporting in recent times, it’s tough to accept anything at face value.

 

The CBO actually looks at their own estimate results and publishes their accuracy. They are usually plus/minus no more than 1.2%. Which is very accurate and better than anything else historically

 

Did you not get the memo? They are completely FOS if they publish anything that may reflect poorly on dear leader in any way.

 

No, not really.

Your guy Deficit Don is getting ready to add trillions to the debt by cutting taxes (mostly for the rich) while the economy is pretty strong. For the second time.

It's farcical- this will be the second time he's given himself, and similar people, a tax cut at the precise time the USA should be paying down some debt.

So you, and people like you, can do your cover-your-eyes routine and mouth your words - "Gee I just don't know what to think, there's just so much really strange analysis!" ......

..... but we all know what we're seeing happen for the second time; Donald Trump is failing America. Again. He's milking a bit more for himself while he kicks the can down the road. Again.

Deficit Don.

 

Many on here are going to hate this

 

A Harvard professor’s analysis of published government statistics is sus (unless it’s in a tweet, of course!) “Just the News” however definitely clears the threshold.

 

So was that before or after the drag queens protested?

 

CBO doesn’t have a crystal ball. They can’t predict the future. Most of these issues the article outlines were new initiatives without much history for prediction.

With tax cuts however there is more data available.

Also the article chose to focus on issues that tended to underestimate spending. There are examples the other way.

At the beginning of 2010 prior to passage of ACA - the CBO forecast of Medicare plus Medicaid was $1.4 trillion for the year 2019.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/recurringdata/51118-2010-01-budgetprojections.xlsx

But by 2019, Medicare, plus expanded Medicaid, plus ACA subsidies was $1.25 trillion. So by all accounts ACA reduced the rate of increase in federal health care spending, even though it expanded overall eligibility.

If you look at total mandatory spending (entitlements) the 2010 CBO forecast for 2019 was $2.8 trillion. By 2019 the amount was about $2.9 trillion. That’s pretty damn close overall.

Net of receipts the original forecast was negative $800 billion in 2019. The actual was closer to $600/$700 billion in 2019.

So all of these examples of specific CBO underestimates in the article related to ACA ignored the fact that ACA actually reduced the rate of growth of federal medical entitlement spending, had no effect on total entitlement spending and actually lowered the rate of growth vs projections of entitlements net of related receipts.

 

A bunch of people cheering their beloved leader? Looked like any other blind faith group that worships a single entity that can do no wrong. There's a word for that kind of group but can't use it here

 

Wasn’t at the show